Meeting Customer Needs with Economic Data in Alaska Jeff Hadland, Research Supervisor Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development SDC Annual Training Conference October 2009

Research and Analysis Research and Analysis website: laborstats.alaska.gov Alaska Economic Trends monthly publication Employment and unemployment estimates Population estimates and projections Local Employment Dynamics- LED Alaska housing market data

586,400 Square Miles. 2,700 Miles East to West. 1,400 Miles North to South

Alaska Profile Alaska’s July 1, 2008 estimated population was 679,720 Low population density Employment Anchorage is the population and employment center 148 incorporated cities 200 CDP’s 210 ANVSA’s (can also be city or CDP)

Alaska’s Data Center Integral Part of LMI Office Alaska joined the state data center program in 1981 Data dissemination GIS Mapping/Analysis/Support/Maintenance Research/Analysis/Technical Assistance/Consulting Assistance with decennial census and survey operations Training promotion and education

Current Big Questions How is the recession affecting Alaska? Home foreclosure and building permit data How is the economy affecting population migration? New hires Business closures

More Questions… Retail sales-No sales tax in Alaska What are the “hot jobs” in Alaska ? If we built and Alaska gasline, would we have enough skilled workers in Alaska? What is the “real” unemployment rate?

Juneau How many are unemployed in rural Alaska?

And…. MORE LOCAL DATA

Occupational Database and Historical Administrative Data To provide better local information we use UI wage records coupled with administrative data…LED type information. Alaska UI wage records contain employer, industry, work area, occupation data for each worker Use Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend file as a source of age, sex and place of residence and longitudinal tracking for Alaska residents at place level UI claimant data

Special Research Products to Answer Local Information Requests Workers approaching retirement age Older workers and youth Gender gap Intrastate migration-rural to urban Denali distressed Communities Nonresidents Working in Alaska-Resident hire and local hire Labor Supply and Demand: Planning for Alaska’s gasline

How many workers come from out of state to work in Alaska? Alaska wage records matched with Alaska PFD files.

And LED—Work locations for workers that live in area defined by red line

Special Housing Market Surveys Annual Rental survey conducted in March for ten boroughs and census areas Average, median, contract and adjusted rents Rental unit vacancy rates Unit characteristics-number of bedrooms, utilities, energy types New Housing Survey-building permits Administered quarterly Single-family, multi-family, and mobile homes Place- and borough-level data Some valuation data Info supports our population estimates program

Customer Requests Retail trade information is the most requested economic census data. Data is available for the Boroughs/Census Areas and the only data available with number of establishments and revenue Alaska has no state sales tax and no local sales tax in Anchorage, so retail sales data from economic census important Few requests for county business patterns

Alaska Census Data - Home Page Visit Alaska Census Data at:

Alaska Census Data American Community Survey Visit Alaska Census Data at:

ACS ACS data currently available for only a small part of the state Accuracy of data in small areas Borough/census area data isn’t enough for many, especially in rural Alaska Data may not be representative of village conditions if there is a population hub— such as Kotzebue (population 3,126) and Noorvik (population 642).

ACS… Used regularly by our economists and policymakers in their reports and presentations Users are just becoming familiar with the data. The population thresholds of 65,000 for annual data mean State, Anchorage, Fairbanks, & MatSu Borough data only. The 3-Year data for populations of 20,000+ add Juneau and Kenai.

ACS…. Most data users are looking for Income and Poverty data for grants—no current data available for most of our boroughs/census areas. Data users need education in how to use the data, most want to compare it to the 2000 Census data.

Alaska Boroughs with 3-Year ACS Estimate Data and All Alaska Places

2008 ACS 1-Year Estimates Fairbanks North Star Borough, Alaska EstimateMargin of Error Potential Margin of Error to Estimate Total:6,719+/-1,21618% Male:2,777+/-70926% Under 18 years709+/-40757% 18 to 64 years1,807+/-53530% 65 years and over261+/-24192% Female:3,942+/-82121% Under 18 years967+/-47049% 18 to 64 years2,665+/-43316% 65 years and over310+/-23175% Source: 2008 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates

User Survey Findings Nonemployer Statistics: Data is for the self- employed—available at the Borough/Census Area level, however, most data users would like more detailed level of geography. For example, the Southeast Fairbanks Census Area has 523 Firms, there are 19 cities and CDP’s in the Census Area—data requests are for specific places—due to the size of the Census Area and the number of places the data are not very useful.

Census Housing Data in Alaska Compare DOL rental data to national utilities and building characteristics, renter characteristics. Need more local geographic detail Housing Vacancy Survey Useful as comparison for rental vacancy rate to DOL data at state level Source for total housing vacancy rates for Alaska.

Census Housing Data… American Community Survey Source for renter and homeowner characteristics for state and county level. Compare to DOL data for housing unit counts and types County level data most useful.

Survey of Business Owners Popular Information Minority Owned Businesses Data is requested for AK Native owned businesses for the state & borough/census areas Tables 1 and 4 Women Owned Businesses The only source for state data, data users request local areas and the geography is limited. Veteran Owned Data requested by State agencies just in the past few years—local area data not available.

Other Data BEA CPS-Survey is essential for labor market and unemployment rates

Census Data Won’t Answer All Questions So We’ve Developed New Data Series Get to know your LMI shop Source of wage record and employment information Provides wage records for LED program Alaska created ALARI (Alaska Local and Regional Information)- using Permanent Fund, Wage Record and Other Administrative Data Matches to provide comprehensive local area information

Special Economic Measures for the Denali Commission- Denali Distressed Communities Criteria 1 Average market income in 2006 is less than $14,872. Criteria 2 More than 70% of residents 16 and over earned less than $14,872 in Criteria 3 Less than 30% of residents 16 and over worked all four quarters of 2006.

Gasline Labor Supply and Demand Indicators DOL used our unique data sources to quantify the supply and demand of workers in occupations likely needed on a gasline project.

Alaska Census Data Displayed in Alaska Local and Regional Information (ALARI) Visit ALARI at:

Alaska Local and Regional Information (ALARI) Kenai Peninsula Borough Visit ALARI at:

Alaska Local and Regional Information (ALARI) Kenai Peninsula Borough – Summary Statistics Visit ALARI at:

Alaska Local and Regional Information (ALARI) Kenai Peninsula Borough – Top Occupations Visit ALARI at:

Alaska Local and Regional Information (ALARI) Kenai Peninsula Borough – Industry Information Visit ALARI at:

Alaska Local and Regional Information (ALARI) Kenai Peninsula Borough – Unemployment, Top Employers, Population and Census Visit ALARI at:

Alaska Local and Regional Information (ALARI) Kenai Peninsula Borough – Rental Housing Information, Alaska Economic Trends Visit ALARI at:

For More Information: Jeff Hadland, Economist Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research and Analysis Section PO Box Juneau, AK