Briefing to Premier & Cabinet 18 October 2010

Very Wet during 2010

Record Rainfall during September

Rainfall Totals for week ending 14 October with some local falls mm over the SE corner

Southern Oscillation Index La Nina El Nino

Only 4 occasions in the past 130 years when the September Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has been 20 or greater (relatively strong La Nina) 1917, 1975, 1988 & 2010 (November 1973 ahead of the 1974 floods – SOI in mid 30s) Two Cat 4-5 TCs – Mackay & Innisfail 7 TCs + Cat 3 TC DAVID makes landfall Cat 3 TC AIVU makes landfall

Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly September 2010 Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly September 2009

Multi-Model Ensemble – 10 Global Models October - December

Multi-Model Ensemble – 4 “Best” Models October - December

Rainfall Outlook for October-December

( Embargoed ) Rainfall Outlook for November - January NOT FOR PUBLIC RELEASE

Bureau of Meteorology National Climate Centre Outlook for Tropical Cyclones in the Australian Forecast Region

At least 6 Tropical Cyclones on 11 occasions in past 50 years - but not seen since the La Nina seasons of the late 1990s

Natural climate variability is a dominating factor in Queensland especially in regards to tropical cyclone and monsoonal activity El Nino La Nina

Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) - which is a good reflection of the strength of the monsoon - is the most significant event since 1985

Seasonal Outlook for Queensland This is not a run-of-the-mill La Nina The current La Nina event is now quite strong and well established - and the majority of global computer models indicate that it will persist until at least March next year No two La Ninas are the same although La Nina events are usually - but not always - associated with enhanced tropical cyclone activity in the Coral Sea and above normal rainfall over much of Queensland Therefore expect with some degree of confidence a fairly active cyclone season and a continuation of the above average rains and associated flooding Unable to predict very far in advance where cyclones will cross the coast or which rivers will flood Many catchments are saturated so runoff is likely to occur with less rainfall than normally required