Technological foresight methodology applied to forecast the future of hydrogen and fuel cells (EurEnDel project) Anna Oniszk-Popławska EC Baltic Renewable Energy Centre RECEPOL Centre of Excellence and Competence in Renewable Energy

Objectives 5 th FP project a Union-wide Delphi survey long term developments in energy technologies (30 years), their potentials and expected impacts knowledge and technical foresight to promote a sustainable European energy sector

What is foresight? Exploring possible, probable and preferable futures: Anticipation and projections of long term developments Interactive and participative methods of debate and analysis Forging new social networks Elaboration of strategic visions Implication for present day decision and actions

Approach Literature and analysis of former Delphi studies Expert panels Cross-impact analysis Development of societal visions Delphi study Technology and market trend scenarios Assessment of social vs. technical perspectives R&D recommendations

Delhi questionnaires 2 parts – 20 classical statements and three societal visions a draft of the questionnaire was reviewed and further elaborated together with external energy experts 1st round- the questionnaire was sent to experts Responses of the 2nd round: 600 experts

Visions of Europe’s future Individual choice Social equity Ecological balance Visions focus on forecasts of the future of energy sector but they also dwell upon issues currently dominating the disussion about sustainable development in Europe: pathways for economic, ecological and social development. As each of the visions emphasises different aspect of the socio-economic issues it seems feasible that their realisation will be possible using a totaly different set of technologies.

Analasis of literature and other existing Delphis Analysis of 17 exisiting national Delphi studies 12 technology roadmaps Output material for the further assignemnts in the project

Future Energy Demand – increase vs. efficiency gains Transport and mobility Spatial movements Grid development Renewables' fate Carrier fuels and storage technologies Hydrocarbon Bottleneck Nuclear power Power play in the energy market Energy price and taxes Future social relations The future of work Demographic trends Technological progress Environmental Restraints and Objectives 16 Problem fields 44 System variables

Delphi statements –H 2 i FC H2 used as an energy carrier constitutes a significant part of the energy system (transport and stationary application) produced from : diverse sources renewable energy sources Biological or bio-chemical production of H2 is in practical use Advanced energy storage technologies are widely used in renewable energy supply systems Fuel cell driven cars reach a European market share of 20%

Eurendel forecasts (2) H2 used as an energy carrier constitutes a significant part of the energy system (transport and stationary application) produced from: renewable energy sources diverse sources Biological or bio-chemical production of H2 is in practical use Advanced energy storage technologies are widely used in renewable energy supply systems Fuel cell driven cars reach a European market share of 20% after 2030 after 2020 after 2030 after 2020

Actions needed to enhance the likelihood of occurrence

Preliminarny conclusions (1) Niche market Mass market costs Technical problems Lack of infrastructure for distribution of H 2 Now after 2020 Increased spendings on research, co+operation between Europe USA and Japan Distributed generation (end of pipe use of natural gas for steam reformin on small scale, integration with RES

Preliminarny conclusions (2) FC H2H2 Which fuel ? RES Fossil fuels→ sequestration

Preliminarny conclusions(3) H 2 economy Fossil fuel economy Transition period Lack of infrastructure for distribution of H2 Production of H2 from fossil fuels in distributed generation Production of H 2 in FC with RES Using of H2 in fleets – marine, buses etc. (centralised demand for fuel) Perception of H 2 as safe fuel (information campaigns)

Thank you Project’s website: Final results: September 2004 Contact person: Anna Oniszk-Popławska