An Increasingly Urban World – Needs and Opportunities for Partnerships? Dr. Walter Dabberdt Vaisala Chief Science Officer President, American Meteorological Society AMS-PPP: April 22, 2008

©Vaisala | | Dabberdt- AMS PPP Forum | Page 2 The Quadruple Convergence Population Growth Urbanization Climate Change Coastal Vulnerabilities A Perfect Storm? (and the impact on partnerships)

©Vaisala | | Dabberdt- AMS PPP Forum | Page 3 Ten(10) Largest Cities in 1000A.D. (M-Inhabitants) CordovaSpain0.450 KaifengChina0.400 ConstantinopleTurkey0.300 AngkorCambodia0.200 KyotoJapan0.175 CairoEgypt0.135 BaghdadIraq0.125 (1.25???) NishapurIran0.125 Al-HasaSaudi Arabia0.110 PatanIndia0.100 Source: Tertius Chandler: “4,000 Years of Urban Growth” (1987) Sum - CY1000 (i=1,10) = 2.12M

©Vaisala | | Dabberdt- AMS PPP Forum | Page 4 Growth of Mega-Cities City-1975Population Tokyo New York Shanghai Mexico City Sao Paulo City-2000Population Tokyo Mexico City Mumbai Sao Paulo Shanghai New York Lagos Los Angeles Kolkata Buenos Aires Dhaka Karachi Delhi Jakarta Osaka Metro Manila Beijing Rio de Janeiro Cairo City-2015Population Tokyo Mumbai Lagos Dhaka Sao Paulo Karachi Mexico City Shanghai New York Jakarta Kolkata Delhi Metro Manila Los Angeles Buenos Aires Cairo Istanbul Beijing Rio de Janeiro Osaka Tianjin Hyderabad Bangkok (5) (19) (23) Source: UN Population Division, March 2000 blue = coastal city (18) green = inland city (5) Sum – CY2000 (i=1,10) = 166.0M Sum – CY2015 (i=1,10) = 209.4M

©Vaisala | | Dabberdt- AMS PPP Forum | Page 5 The March of Urbanization in the World (% global population) YearWorldMDRLDR MDR = more developed regions LDR = less developed regions source: UNPD, 2001 Today, 50% of the world’s population live in the cities and 1.3 million people move to the cities every week!

©Vaisala | | Dabberdt- AMS PPP Forum | Page 6 Squatter Cities Kibera (Nairobi) One billion now live in squatter cities (1/6 of global population) Two billion more expected

©Vaisala | | Dabberdt- AMS PPP Forum | Page 7 Estimated and Projected Urban and Rural Populations of Developing and Developed Countries, Year Population (in Billions) Developing Countries - Urban Developing Countries - Rural Developed Countries - Urban Developed Countries - Rural Original source: United Nations (2002) Population Growth: Rural vs. Urban Adapted from Hinrichsen, Salem and Blackburn ( 2002)

©Vaisala | | Dabberdt- AMS PPP Forum | Page 8 City-Atmosphere Interactions atmosphere impacts the city city impacts the atmosphere

©Vaisala | | Dabberdt- AMS PPP Forum | Page 9 Tornado – Ft. Worth, TX (March 28, 2000) Source: North Central Texas Council of Governments simulation March 28, 2000 Path Length: Approximately 3 miles Path Width: 1/4 mile F-Scale: F1 (73-112mph) to F2 ( mph)

©Vaisala | | Dabberdt- AMS PPP Forum | Page 10 France -- Heat Wave (August 13-28, 2003 ) Source: Zaitchik et al., 2006 Vegetation index anomaly Surface temperature anomaly Solid lines demarcate conventional climate zones. 15,000 excess deaths in France 30,000 excess deaths in N. Europe Most in the cities MODIS Imagery

©Vaisala | | Dabberdt- AMS PPP Forum | Page 11 Hurricane Katrina (2005) – Coastal Vulnerability Courtesy of James Franklin, NHC

©Vaisala | | Dabberdt- AMS PPP Forum | Page 12 Beijing -- Mega-City Smog

©Vaisala | | Dabberdt- AMS PPP Forum | Page 13 Coastal Vulnerabilities High-impact coastal zone 53% U.S. population lives in coastal zone 10 of 15 largest U.S. cities are coastal Visitors swell coastal populations Global Low-Level Coastal Zone: ≤ 10m msl 10% world population 6% world urban population 200M live ≤ 1m msl

©Vaisala | | Dabberdt- AMS PPP Forum | Page 14 Climate Change Impacts & the Cities IPCC (FAR, 2007) Phenomena and Trends Post-1960 Likelihood that Trend Occurred 21 st -Century Likelihood that Trend Will Occur Warmer & less frequent cold days & nights over most land areas Very likely (90-99% probability) Virtually certain (>99% probability) Warmer & more frequent hot days & nights over most land areas Very likelyVirtually certain Warm spells/heat waves: frequency increases over most land areas Likely (66-90% probability) Very likely Heavy precipitation events: Frequency (or % of total from heavy rainfalls) increases over most areas LikelyVery likely Area affected by droughts increasesLikely in many regions since 1970 Likely Intense tropical cyclone activity increases Likely in some regions since 1970 Likely Increased incidence of extreme high sea level (excludes tsunamis) Likely

©Vaisala | | Dabberdt- AMS PPP Forum | Page 15 CO 2 Emissions per Capita and per GDP CO 2 (kg) per unit GDP (1990 USD PPP) (“inverse efficiency”) CO 2 (tons per capita) (“production intensity”) ♦ High income OECD countries (1998) ■ Other OECDC countries (1995) ∆ Major non-OECD Asian countries ○ Tokyo ( )  Major Japanese mega-cities ● Beijing ( ) --|-- Shanghai (1985, ) ─ Seoul ( ) Source: Comparative analysis of CO2 emission in Beijing, Seoul, Tokyo and Shanghai (Institute for Global Environmental Strategies), © Beijing (‘85) Seoul (‘97) Tokyo (‘70) Tokyo (‘95) Beijing (‘99) <- Shanghai (‘99) Shanghai (‘85)-> Seoul (‘90)

©Vaisala | | Dabberdt- AMS PPP Forum | Page 16 Scale-Dependence of Weather Information Needs Analysis/description of current atmospheric state Nowcasting/very short-range forecasting (0+ to ~2 hrs) Short-range mesoscale prediction (~3 to 48 hrs) Site of interest Area (rel.) analysis mesoscale prediction nowcasting Schematic illustration Time (rel.) As the timescale of the prediction decreases -- toward analysis and short- term nowcasting – the observing and forecasting requirements become more application-specific

©Vaisala | | Dabberdt- AMS PPP Forum | Page 17 Urban Needs for Environmental Information Urban dwellers have different weather information needs than their rural counterparts, due to the diversity of user groups and population sectors, which include: the general public air quality management agencies water supply and sewage providers electric power industry fuel suppliers – natural gas, fuel oil, coal, gasoline transportation sectors – aviation, marine, and surface emergency response agencies public safety agencies insurance companies and underwriters health care providers recreation facility providers. The disparate groups of urban users and their weather information needs are a driving force for stronger partnerships among the public, private and academic sectors

©Vaisala | | Dabberdt- AMS PPP Forum | Page 18