Risk-informed decision-making: An agenda for improving risk assessments under HFA2 Photo credit: Andrew McConnell/Panos Pictures

Disaster risk management 1.Improving risk informed decision making – increasing the use of science information 2.Mainstream DRM into CCD at national and sub-national levels 3.Positioning DRM as a priority consideration in sustainable development and post-2015 policy frameworks CDKN Goals Credit: G.M.B. Akash/Panos Pictures 2

1.Improving risk informed decision making – increasing the use of science information CDKN Goals Examples of relevant projects: Partnership with the IPCC to promote key messages emerging from 5 th Assessment Report Developing a Climate Risk Assessment for CCD Planning in Central Asia Risk and vulnerability mapping in the Zambezi basin to inform basin-wide policy Learning Network on the Uptake of Risk Assessments in LAC Credit: G.M.B. Akash/Panos Pictures 3

4 Photo credit: Chris Stowers/ Panos Pictures Risk assessments 1.Increase awareness and understanding of disaster risk 2.Develop financial applications to spread and transfer risk 3.Guide and inform risk management and adaptation policies 4.Inform early warning systems and contingency planning 5.Inform spatial planning decisions World Bank and United Nations (2012b) Improving the assessment of disaster risks to strengthen financial resilience: A Special Joint G20 Publication by the Government of Mexico and the World Bank. Washington DC: World Bank.

5 Photo credit: Chris Stowers/ Panos Pictures Learning Network on the Uptake of Risk Assessments in LAC Case studies: Colombia, El Salvador, Dominican Republic, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Peru Mini case studies in Pakistan (NDMA), India (CDKN project in Ahmedabad) and Ghana (CDKN project in coastal areas) 3-4 risk assessments in each Range of intended uses:  raise awareness x3  risk transfer x2  inform policies x11  preparedness and EWS x1  planning x6 Mix of contexts and scales

6 Technical 1.Lack of conceptual clarity 2.Lack of data 3.Low technical capacity Operational 1.Difficulties in interpreting results 2.Mismatch between scales Institutional 1.Low salience 2.Short political timescales Obstacles to uptake

Climate and Development Knowledge Network | 7 Enabling factors for successful use of risk assessments 1.Process not projects 2.Engage end users in design 3.Build capacity 4.Promote partnerships across scales 5.Target sectors 6.Build inter-sectoral collaboration 7.Interpret outputs 8.Link risk to development needs 9.Tie to political timescales A political impact agenda

Climate and Development Knowledge Network | 8  HFA2 should promote risk assessments that help policy-makers to relate disaster risk to broader development decisions  Technical, operational and institutional obstacles stand in the way of risk- informed decision-making. Too often, risk assessments are ignored by decision-makers because results are difficult to interpret  Risk assessment should be demand-led and designed with end-users to ensure uptake and sustainability in application  One-off risk assessments (as pre-conditions to risk management projects) should be avoided - these have a very short shelf life  Donors should seek to develop local capacity for commissioning and interpreting risk studies  Future risk assessments should focus on sectoral needs as the basis for subsequent multi-sectoral work Conclusions

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