C OMBATING T ERRORISM C ENTER at West Point Wednesday 4 October: Film: Inside 9/11 (E hour: All sections meet in TH348) Friday 6 October: Book Review due Tuesday 10 October: WPR –Comprehensive –Study lesson objectives, assigned readings, etc DC Trip Finalists – see list SS474: Terrorism and Counterterrorism Lesson 8: AQ Pre-9/11

C OMBATING T ERRORISM C ENTER at West Point Lesson 8 - The United States and al Qaeda, Book Review Due at Beginning of Class Assigned Readings: Rohan Gunaratna, "Al Qaeda's Lose and Learn Doctrine: The Trajectory from Oplan Bojinka to 9/11," in Teaching Terror (pages ). The Attack on the USS Cole (case study prepared by Dr. Ruth Beitler) (PDF) The 1993 Attack on the World Trade Center (case study by prepared Dr. David Baracksay) (PDF) 9/11 Timeline (WEB)9/11 Timeline Rohan Gunaratna, Inside Al Qaeda: Global Network of Terror (New York: Columbia University Press, 2002), (PDF)Inside Al Qaeda: Global Network of Terror Catch up on all readings in preparation of next week's WPR Recommended Readings: Peter Bergen, "The Bin Laden Trial: What Did We Learn?" Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, Vol. 24, No. 6 (November - December 2002), (PDF)The Bin Laden Trial: What Did We Learn?

C OMBATING T ERRORISM C ENTER at West Point Marine Barracks Beirut, Lebanon 23 October Dead 105 Injured We couldnt stay there and run the risk of another suicide attack on the Marines. -- Ronald Reagan, An American Life We couldnt stay there and run the risk of another suicide attack on the Marines. -- Ronald Reagan, An American Life

C OMBATING T ERRORISM C ENTER at West Point New York, World Trade Center February 26, Dead, 1,042 Injured Oklahoma City Murrah Federal Building, 19 April Dead, 490 Injured

C OMBATING T ERRORISM C ENTER at West Point Matsumoto, Japan March, Dead, 34 Injured Sarin gas kills by paralyzing muscles so that a person cannot breathe. Sarin enters the body by inhalation, ingestion, and through the eyes and skin. Symptoms begin with watery eyes, drooling, and excessive sweating, and then rapidly progress to difficulty in breathing, dimness of vision, nausea, vomiting, twitching, and headache. Ultimately the victim will become comatose and suffocate as a consequence of convulsive spasms. Tokyo, Japan Teito Rapid Transit Authority (Subway System) March 20, Dead, 5,000 Injured Aum Shinrikyo and the Sarin Gas Attacks Japan, 1994 & 1995

C OMBATING T ERRORISM C ENTER at West Point Khobar Towers - Dhahran, Saudi Arabia 25 June Dead 240 Injured

C OMBATING T ERRORISM C ENTER at West Point American Embassy Bombings, Kenya and Tanzania August Americans, Kenyans, and Tanzanians dead Over 5,000 injured

C OMBATING T ERRORISM C ENTER at West Point 1999 LAX Attack Plan

C OMBATING T ERRORISM C ENTER at West Point The Strategy of Terrorism Increasing interest in soft targets (economically strategic impact, and less protected) such as: –pubs in Northern Ireland & London UK –open markets & cafes in Israel –international airport, Sri Lanka –bus in Manila, the Philippines –shopping mall in southern Philippines –nightclub in Bali, Indonesia –banks in Istanbul, Turkey –hotel in Jakarta, Indonesia –nightclub in Berlin, Germany –and, of course...

C OMBATING T ERRORISM C ENTER at West Point New York City & Washington, DC September 11, ,973 Dead, and 10,000+ Injured

C OMBATING T ERRORISM C ENTER at West Point Modern Trends in Global Terrorism More violent attacks (increasing lethality) Increasing use of suicide bombers (the ultimate smart bomb)

C OMBATING T ERRORISM C ENTER at West Point Karachi, Pakistan May 8, 2002 June 14, Dead 50 Injured 14 Dead, including 11 French engineers Bus attack Attack on U.S. Consulate

C OMBATING T ERRORISM C ENTER at West Point Bali, Indonesia October 12, Dead 350 Injured Citizens from 21 countries, mostly Western tourists, were killed in the blasts

C OMBATING T ERRORISM C ENTER at West Point Casablanca, Morocco May 17, Dead 107 Injured

C OMBATING T ERRORISM C ENTER at West Point Jakarta, Indonesia August 5, Dead 60 Injured J.W. Marriott Hotel, Jakarta

C OMBATING T ERRORISM C ENTER at West Point Riyadh, Saudi Arabia November 8, 2003April 21, Dead 148 Injured 3 simultaneous suicide car bomb attacks on Al-Muhaya apartment complex Attack on Security Services Headquarters 17 Dead 122 Injured

C OMBATING T ERRORISM C ENTER at West Point Istanbul, Turkey November 20, Dead 400 Injured Primary Targets: British consulate and the HSBC bank headquarters

C OMBATING T ERRORISM C ENTER at West Point Madrid, Spain March 11, Dead 1,035 Injured

C OMBATING T ERRORISM C ENTER at West Point Jakarta, Indonesia September 9, Dead 173 Injured Australian Embassy was primary target

C OMBATING T ERRORISM C ENTER at West Point London, UK July 7, Dead 716 Injured

C OMBATING T ERRORISM C ENTER at West Point Why? Whats the history, strategy, etc. of the modern terrorism threat?

C OMBATING T ERRORISM C ENTER at West Point AQ Pre-9/11 What is al Qaedas strategy? What are their strategic objectives? 1996 fatwa –declaration of war, warned of presence of American and British Crusader forces Saudi Arabia would become a beach head to impose a new imperialism on the region to obtain its oil –It is no secret that warding off the American enemy is the top duty after faith and nothing should take priority over it –All ulema are unanimous that it is an individual duty to fight an invading enemy

C OMBATING T ERRORISM C ENTER at West Point 1998 Fatwa – shift from the near enemy to the far enemy Bin Ladens critical contribution = re-directing energies of Jihadists toward attacking the U.S. anywhere AQ and bin Laden do not want to be global leader of terrorists; rather, provide a spark, motivator, bring them under ideological umbrella AQ Pre-9/11

C OMBATING T ERRORISM C ENTER at West Point AQ Pre-9/11 Appreciating the Strategic Story: –Al Qaeda proper" desires large attacks on US –Al Qaeda is focused on US economy –What about other groups & their objectives? –US interests abroad remain vulnerable –We are dealing with a strategic enemy –Perceptions matter –Long-view of the story is critical: Connecting the dots vs. Knowing the story

C OMBATING T ERRORISM C ENTER at West Point ICE: AQ Timeline In Groups of 4: Construct a timeline of key events leading up to 9/11 Demonstrate how early terrorist groups or events have some relation to the events of 9/11 Try to go as far back as 1968

? 1995 Aum Shinrikyo (Tokyo) 1986 Pan Am (Tel Aviv) 1994 Air France # bin Laden Fatwa 1998 bin Laden Fatwa 2000 USS Cole 1999 Millennium Plots LAX, Jordan 1993 WTC Bombing Landmark Plot 1 st attack on U.S. soil? KSM is uncle of Yousef Important conceptual shift from near enemy to far enemy 3/11 Madrid /11 Focused U.S. security policy towards non-state actors and WMD concerns YousefKSM Islamic Terrorism Timeline: A Strategic View Embassy bombings Khobar Towers 1983 Beirut Embassy & Marine Barracks lessons learned? 1985 Somalia paper tiger? 7/7 London Oplan Bojinka

C OMBATING T ERRORISM C ENTER at West Point Three capabilities critical to 9/11 still exist –Ability to identify and exploit a key gap in opponents defenses –Effective and clever use of deception and denial –Suicide attacks employed to ensure operations success Theoretically, a vast reservoir of trained recruits remains available for activation/mobilization –Tens of thousands jihadists trained in past decade –Means and methods of terrorism widely disseminated AQ Tomorrow: Global Threats

C OMBATING T ERRORISM C ENTER at West Point AQ Tomorrow: Global Threats Method of attack –Depends on which Al Qaeda you are dealing with –Al Qaeda prefers coordinated attacks in waves –Well-planned with strong reconnaissance efforts Detailed planning efforts Rehearsals Strong operational security Most likely means High yield explosives Vehicle delivery Most difficult Unconventional weapons ConsequenceProbability VBIEDWMD IED

C OMBATING T ERRORISM C ENTER at West Point AQ Tomorrow: Global Threats Al Qaeda of today is not the Al Qaeda of yesterday –Robust organization – Now global social movement –Strong command and control – Now loose direction –Operational freedom – Now focused on operational security –Dangerous organization – Now still extremely dangerous Questions??