Renewable Energy in Minnesota -- How Much Do We Need? Louis Schwartzkopf --Minnesota State Mankato --SE/SC Clean Energy Resource Team --Region 9 Renewable Energy Task Force

Why renewable energy? Switching to renewable energy is urgent because there are problems with all fossil fuels:  Oil: world oil production will peak, most likely sometime in the next 20 years (peak oil).  Electricity: 75% of Minnesota’s electricity comes from coal (dirty and implicated in global warming).  Natural gas: We have approximately ten years’ worth of natural gas left in North America, at current rates of consumption.

Why renewable energy? Exploiting SE/SC Minnesota’s renewable energy resources – Creates good jobs in the region. Keeps energy dollars in the region. Strengthens the local economy.

Clean Energy Resource Team (CERT) SE/SC Strategic Energy Plan There is plenty of renewable energy potential in SE/SC Minnesota! In particular, for -- Wind farms Ethanol plants Biodigesters Etc. To find the plan:

How much energy do we use in Minnesota? Electricity Petroleum, for gasoline and diesel fuel Natural gas, for heating and electricity To find the data: Look in the 2004 Quadrennial Report on the web at -- Minnesota Department of Commerce >> Energy Info Center >> Energy Policy Reports >> Quadrennial Report

The idea Calculate how much renewable energy we’d need to replace fossil fuels, at present rates of consumption:  Wind for electricity  Ethanol for gasoline  Biodigesters for natural gas

The results Ethanol for gasoline 3 ethanol plants for both counties Wind turbines for electricity 170 for Blue Earth County, 70 for Nicollet County Biodigesters for natural gas 23 for Blue Earth County, 12 for Nicollet County

What does this mean? The electricity used in Blue Earth County is equivalent to that supplied by a good- sized wind farm. If all the cars in Blue Earth County burned E85, the ethanol could be supplied by two or three plants. There are not enough livestock herds in Blue Earth County to supply our residential natural gas.

Energy targets, not an energy plan These numbers for Blue Earth and Nicollet Counties are energy targets, not an energy plan. The transition to renewable fuels will be achieved over decades. Energy efficiency and energy conservation must be part of any realistic plan to convert to renewable fuels.

How are we doing with renewables in Minnesota so far? Sources American Wind Energy Association: Minnesota Department of Agriculture:

YearInstalled capacity, MW Number of turbines installed Comments 1998 and before134220Buffalo Ridge, 1994 (73 turbines); Lake Benton l (143) Lake Benton 2 (138) McNeilus (48); Chanarambie (57) Moraine Wind Power (34) Trimont (67) Wind capacity installed in Minnesota, by year

Minnesota ethanol production, by year YearProduction (Million gallons) YearProduction (Million gallons)

How can we plan for increasing electricity consumption? Slides from Assistant Commissioner Mike Bull’s presentation, “Projecting Future Energy Needs and Alternative Energy Goals for Minnesota,” available online at /Conferences/altenergy.html

Electricity Doubling Minnesota’s Renewable Energy Use 2003 data (MWh)

Electricity Doubling Minnesota’s Renewable Energy Use 2015 estimate (MWh)

Current and projected yearly electricity consumption in Minnesota (gigawatt-hours) YearTotalNon- renewables Wind ,00057, ,00072,00011,000

Can the projected increases be met? Projected increases assume a growth in consumption at 3.1%/year (the historic rate). We will have to add 200 wind turbines a year to get to the 2015 wind power projection. In addition, we will have to add two new large (1,000 MW) power plants to meet the projection.

The importance of conservation and efficiency Electricity consumption is growing faster than population in Minnesota (3.1% vs. 0.8% a year). If electricity consumption were to grow at the same rate as population, then it would be held to 70,000 (NOT 90,000) GWh in In this case the need for additional fossil fuel production of electricity would be eliminated!