The Use of Statistical Data in Treasury Publications Economic Analysis Directorate (FS Treasury)

PRESENTATION LAYOUT »Background on the Directorate »Socio-economic review & outlook (SERO) »Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) »Provincial Economic Review & Outlook (PERO) »Quarterly Labour Market Review (QLMR) »Other outputs »Data challenges

Background on the Directorate The Directorate Economic Analysis is one of the four directorates within the chief directorate of Sustainable Resource Management; The primary purpose of the directorate is to provide the Provincial Government with cutting-edge socio- economic research; The analysis emanating from the research output is intended to inform and guide fiscal policy development and the allocation of scarce public resources.

1. Socio-Economic Review & Outlook Purpose: – Deeper understanding of the socio-economic state of the province and the associated challenges; – Ascertain the extent to which the lives of ordinary people in the Free State have changed since the decentralization of fiscal policy; – Planning and Monitoring & Evaluation tool; – Influence the allocation of scarce resources. Structure of the publication – Chapter 1: Demographics – Chapter 2: Poverty, Quality of Life & Access to basic services (& infrastructure) – Chapter 3: Education – Chapter 4: Health – Chapter 5: Labour – Chapter 6:Economy Main sources of data – Stats SA (Census, Mid-year population estimates, Income & expenditure survey, GDP, QLFS, etc) – Global Insight (ReX)

Example of Indicators Percentage of households living in informal settlementsPercentage of households using bucket toilets or which have no toilet facility Discouraged work-seekers by province Percentage of households with access to piped water in a dwelling

2. MEDIUM TERM BUDGET POLICY STAMENT (MTBPS) Purpose – It summarizes government’s perspective on the broad economic outlook for the coming three years, provides information on budget allocations and priorities over the same period, and indicates how the intended expenditure will be financed – The MTBPS can be regarded as the ‘making public’ of the MTEF. As a pre-budget release, it contributes in general terms to fiscal transparency, and helps ensure that the budget legislatures votes on is without surprises or shocks. – Thus, the MTBPS is above all an opportunity for non-executive stakeholders in public budgeting to engage with the broader trends of the budget and to ask broader questions concerning the extent to which budgeting is aligned with the policies of government and is achieving the objectives of those policies. Sources of data – Various source – Stats SA (GDP & QLFS for chapter on Economic performance & outlook)

Example of Indicators Province 2011 Q22012 Q12012 Q2qrt -to-qrt change qrt -to-qrt percentage change yr-on-yr percentage change (000)% Western Cape Eastern Cape Northern Cape Free State KwaZulu Natal North West Gauteng Mpumalanga Limpopo GDP Growth Employment by province

3. PROVINCIAL ECONOMIC REVIEW & OUTLOOK (PERO) Purpose: – The Provincial Economic Review and Outlook (PERO) provides an in-depth analysis of the provincial economy and places specific emphasis on sectoral performance and labour market issues. Structure of the publication – Chapter 1: Global macroeconomic perspective – Chapter 2: Free State economic performance and outlook – Chapter 3: Free State labour market – Chapter 4: Free State municipal economies in perspective Main source of data: – Stats SA (GDP, QLFS, etc) – Global Insight (ReX)

Unemployment and Absorption rates Source: Stats SA, LFS, Sept 2009; QLFS, Sept 2010, Sept 2012 Example of Indicators

4. FREE STATE QUARTERLY LABOUR MARKET REVIEW (QLMR) Purpose: – Give a detailed update of the labour market trends in the Free State Province on a quarterly basis. – By analyzing the labour market intensively, decision-makers can develop policies aimed at reducing unemployment, support vulnerable workers, promote youth development, eliminate wastage and develop responsive education and training systems Source of date: – Stats SA (QLFS)

Unemployment by province Characteristics of the not economically active Example of Indicators

OTHER OUTPUTS FFC’s Equitable Share Formula inputs Section 3 of Budget Statement 1 Socio-economic Database Research Papers MEC Soci0-economic updates

DATA CHALLENGES Provincial GDP – Frequency – Time lag Local Municipal level data

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