GrocerSmart 4.0 redesign -request for rtf input- February 25, 2010

Agenda Current GrocerSmart© –What we’ve learned Summit Blue EM&V Increasing measure complexity Increasing need for accuracy –How to address in future GrocerSmart©? From parametric runs to fully modeled

How GS works now –Software: Microsoft Access & SQL database –Major systems audits –Models from table data picks –Recommends EEMs –Energy savings (delta), payback

How GS works now What savings numbers does it produce? –Three kinds Deemed/prescriptive savings values –RTF approved Calculated Modeled – computer simulation

Some measures: –Floating head pressure control on multiplex racks –Floating suction pressure control on multiplex racks –Replacing shaded pole motors with ECM motors –Anti-Sweat Heat Control –Single compressors to multiplex –Efficient/oversized condenser –New higher efficiency refrigerated cases –Case lighting upgrades from T12 to T8 –Case lighting upgrades from T8 to LED –Low Anti-Sweat Heat doors –Night covers –Gaskets –Strip curtains –Auto closers

Refrigeration System parameters:

On GS accuracy… Summit Blue eval of BPA’s ESG –Results on 50% of program savings show: –Understatement of savings averages 28% (FHPC, Cases, ECMs) 3 key measures = +19, +27, +39% –Overstated savings (FHPC w/VFD) 1 key measure = 16% –Summit Blue recommendation: Apply realization rates

50% + of new measures in the pipeline are highly complex and interactive with loads, systems, or both

Relationship of Complexity to GS savings accuracy Measure complexity High Low Realization rate FHPC w/VFD FHPC w/o VFD Efficient Cases ECM case motors Low High

Accuracy – utilities want and need it RTF wants accuracy, not conservatism Technologies don’t “deem” well –Deemed denied to PECI and others Grounds: accurate and/or not conservative savings –Measure approaches segmented Deemed, deemed calculated, custom –Goal: Transparency into methods

Why is this approach best? (Approach = Modeled not parametrics) More, and more accurate kWh from programs Accuracy and transparency = regulatory risk mitigation –New approach transparent, results can be duplicated Stronger selling position for new and renewal programs, reduce future risk across portfolio Add measures – consistent / correct methodology Increase measure complexity Potential to do custom with GS/NRR-DR

Potential program impacts Perspective: BPA –Same measure mix –Apply - and + realization rates 3.4 million kWh Net on key measures: +116% over GS Net on total program savings: 7% over GS

Transparency GS inputs default choice from defined data set DOE 2.2r inputs Mod el runs case type=W= key words and values input files Output files and reports lights=X= ballasts=Y= motors=Z= ASHC=AA=

Transparency Input reportsGS inputs PECI selections associated with inputs DOE 2.2r inputs Weather files "Include" files Output reports"BDL" hourly reports

Design concepts and rationales One substantive change: –Original conception – modeling, parametrics, deemed –Revised conception – modeling and deemed Rationale –Accuracy from model Parametrics are intermediate accuracy RTF enthusiastically engages subcommittee and PNW utilities

When modeled vs. deemed? Modeled on the “do now” measures Deemed on everything else –Summit Blue: values work for different bldg types All utility reported values are modeled

Discussion