AOP7: Verification of landfall typhoon forecast WMO Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project (WMO-TLFDP) Leading institutions: Shanghai Typhoon Institute/CMA East China RMC/CMA RSMC Tokyo Typhoon Centre Progress Report to Typhoon Committee, 6-9 September 2010, Macao, China Implementing duration:

Objectives To strengthen the ability of forecasters and decision- makers to analyze and determine the accuracy of typhoon forecasts; To strengthen the ability of forecasters and decision- makers to analyze and determine the accuracy of typhoon forecasts; To assess the WMO-LTFDP’s impacts on the enhancement of the ability in typhoon forecast as well as its social and economic benefits; To assess the WMO-LTFDP’s impacts on the enhancement of the ability in typhoon forecast as well as its social and economic benefits; To enhance the capability of forecasting landfall typhoon in the “Shanghai MHEWS” and to provide a better service for the Expo 2010; To enhance the capability of forecasting landfall typhoon in the “Shanghai MHEWS” and to provide a better service for the Expo 2010; To demonstrate the performance of the most advanced forecasting technique in the world; To demonstrate the performance of the most advanced forecasting technique in the world; To promote the implementation of the most advanced forecasting technique for landfall typhoon in WMO members. To promote the implementation of the most advanced forecasting technique for landfall typhoon in WMO members.

Tasks Collection of real-time forecast data Verification of forecasts Dissemination of products Benefit Assessment Forecast integration techniques

Organization International Scientific Steering Committee (ISSC) International Scientific Steering Committee (ISSC) Steering and evaluating the project activitiesSteering and evaluating the project activities Nominated by WMONominated by WMO Project Coordination Group (PCG) Project Coordination Group (PCG) To provide a key forum for the coordination of activities between the ISSC and the RSCTo provide a key forum for the coordination of activities between the ISSC and the RSC East China Regional Steering Committee (RSC) East China Regional Steering Committee (RSC) In charge of the management and the implementation of the projectIn charge of the management and the implementation of the project Director: Director of East China RMC/CMA.Director: Director of East China RMC/CMA. Members: nominated by East China RMC/CMA.Members: nominated by East China RMC/CMA.

The proposal was proposed by Shanghai Meteorology Bureau/CMA (East China RMC) during the IWTCLP-II in Shanghai, China, 19 – 23 Oct The proposal was proposed by Shanghai Meteorology Bureau/CMA (East China RMC) during the IWTCLP-II in Shanghai, China, 19 – 23 Oct The proposal was adopted by the CAS-XV in Incheon, ROK, 18 – 25 Nov The proposal was adopted by the CAS-XV in Incheon, ROK, 18 – 25 Nov The collaboration between NWP-TC Track Ensemble Forecast RDP and Typhoon Landfall FDP was discussed in Geneva, Feb The collaboration between NWP-TC Track Ensemble Forecast RDP and Typhoon Landfall FDP was discussed in Geneva, Feb The concept document was finalized in March The concept document was finalized in March The ISSC was offically set up in March The ISSC was offically set up in March Milestones

The members of ISSC Prof. Lianshou CHEN (CMA/CAMS) (Lead scientist) Dr. Xu TANG (CMA/SMB) (Co-lead scientist) Dr. Xiaotu LEI (CMA/STI) Dr. Baode CHEN (CMA/STI) Mr. Chuanhai QIAN (CMA/NMC) Mr. Masashi Kunitsugu (RSMC/JMA) Dr K. KANG (KMA/National Typhoon Center) Dr. Boon-Ying LEE (Hong Kong Observatory) Prof. Johnny CL CHAN (Hong Kong City University) Dr James FRANKLIN (NOAA) Dr Anna GHELLI (ECMWF) Dr Julian HEMING (UK Meteorological Office) Dr Beth EBERT (Bureau of Meteorology, Australia) Dr Beth EBERT (Bureau of Meteorology, Australia) Mr Ian SHEPHERD (Bureau of Meteorology, Australia) Mr Ian SHEPHERD (Bureau of Meteorology, Australia) Dr Laurie WILSON (Meteorological Service of Canada) Dr Laurie WILSON (Meteorological Service of Canada) Dr Brian MILLS (Meteorological Service of Canada) Dr Brian MILLS (Meteorological Service of Canada) Dr Barbara BROWN (NCAR) Dr Barbara BROWN (NCAR) Dr. Tetsuo NAKAZAWA (WWRP/THORPEX) Dr. Tetsuo NAKAZAWA (WWRP/THORPEX) Dr. Hui YU (STI/CMA) Dr. Hui YU (STI/CMA)

The members of PCG Dr. Xu TANG (CMA/ECRMC) Dr. Xiaotu LEI (CMA/STI) Mr. Masashi Kunitsugu (RSMC/JMA) Ms. Haleh KOOTVAL (WMO/PWSP) Mr. Koji KUROIWA (WMO/TCP) Ms. Nanette LOMARDA (WMO/WWRP)

The members of RSC Dr. Xu TANG (CMA/ECRMC) Dr. Xiaotu LEI (CMA/STI) Dr. Hui YU (CMA/STI) Dr. Baode CHEN (CMA/STI) Mr. Yinglong XU (CMA/NMC) Mr. Zhiqiang CHEN (CMA/ECRMC) Ms. Liying TAO (CMA/ECRMC)

Collaboration between NWP-TC Track Ensemble Forecast RDP and Typhoon Landfall FDP From TCTEFRDP to TLFDP TC EPS productsTC EPS products Verification information on TC EPS productsVerification information on TC EPS products Training (to help forecasters prepared to use TC EPS products)Training (to help forecasters prepared to use TC EPS products) From TLFDP to TCTEFRDP Ideas or requirements on user-oriented TC EPS productsIdeas or requirements on user-oriented TC EPS products Feedbacks on how and to what extent TC EPS products benefit the operational forecast and public serviceFeedbacks on how and to what extent TC EPS products benefit the operational forecast and public service Training (to popularize the experience of using TC EPS products to broader users)Training (to popularize the experience of using TC EPS products to broader users)

Training Workshop on Operational Tropical Cyclone Forecast, May, Shanghai Training Workshop on Operational Tropical Cyclone Forecast, May, Shanghai Real time collection system of the forecast products has been set up. Real time collection system of the forecast products has been set up. Real time display system of the forecast products has been set up. Real time display system of the forecast products has been set up. Real time verification system of the track and intensity forecast products has been set up. Real time verification system of the track and intensity forecast products has been set up. All the real time information are being provided to the EXPO weather forecasters through the operational website of Shanghai Typhoon Warning Center. All the real time information are being provided to the EXPO weather forecasters through the operational website of Shanghai Typhoon Warning Center. Progresses

11 lecturers from 9 institutions Trainees: 20 forecasters from different meteorological bureaus of East China Region

List of forecast products collected in real time and the way of collection Yellow: GTS. Red: FTP. Green: FTP + CMA Intranet. Blue: CMA Intranet. Typhoon Forecast Products Provider TrackIntensityWind Radii2-D Gridded Surface wind 2-D Gridded Precipitation 3-D Gridded Model Output Official forecast NMC/CMA√√ √ （ Analyses ） RSMC Tokyo√√ √ （ Analyses ） HKO√√ NTC/KMA√√ JTWC√√√ Global model NMC/CMA√√√√√ RSMC Tokyo√√√√√ ECMWF√√√ Regional model NTC/KMA (unavailable yet) STI_GRAPES√√√√√ GZ Regional model√√√√ STI_WARMS√√√ Ensemble prediction Participants of TIGGE TC EPRDP √√ Concensus prediction STI_CONS_OFFICIAL√ STI_CONS_MODEL√ Statistical prediction NHC_Wind Probability√ STI_TCSP√ STI_SIZE√ STI_ANALOG√(stations)

Real time display system (Only Chinese version is currently available) Official Forecast

Real time display system (Only Chinese version is currently available) Objective Forecast

Real time display system (Only Chinese version is currently available) TIGGE Ensemble Prediction

Real time display system (Only Chinese version is currently available) Gridded model output

Real time verification system (Track forecast verificaiton)

Real time verification system (Intensity forecast verificaiton)

Plan for 2011 To develop the project website (English version) To develop the project website (English version) To develop the verification system for tropical cyclone wind and precipitation forecast To develop the verification system for tropical cyclone wind and precipitation forecast To improve the verification system for tropical cyclone track and intensity forecast, especially ensemble prediction and landfall forecast To improve the verification system for tropical cyclone track and intensity forecast, especially ensemble prediction and landfall forecast

Thank you for your attention and all your supports.