Institute for Mobility Research A Research Establishment of 1 Institute for Mobility Research | The Future of Mobility Meeting at JRC Ispra Dr. Irene Feige

Institute for Mobility Research A Research Establishment of 2 The Institute for Mobility Research (ifmo)  Founded in  Part of BMW Group.  Independent Board of Trustees ensures independence and neutrality.  Objective (extract from the institute‘s guidelines from 1998): „ … is to analyze the society‘s needs in terms of mobility taking into account ecologic, social, economic and technological aspects in order to be able to promote a responsible design and organization of mobility.“

Institute for Mobility Research A Research Establishment of 3  Objective: Identification of long-term challenges for passenger transport By taking a holistic perspective:  all modes of transportation  framework conditions for transport (infrastructure, transport policy)  context (economy, demography, ecology, technology) “We overestimate the pace of progress near term and underestimate progress long term” Bill Gates The Institute for Mobility Research (ifmo)

Institute for Mobility Research A Research Establishment of 4 ifmo Board

Institute for Mobility Research A Research Establishment of 5 ifmo Scenario Studies: The Future of Mobility  Objective: Determination of a consistent and comprehensive picture of the future of mobility for the next 20 year  Countries: –Germany (latest study published in 2010) –USA (study in progress) –BRIC countries (studies planned for the future)  Object of investigation: –All influencing fields determining the mobility of the future –All modes of transport with a focus on motorized individual mobility –Passenger and freight transport  Method: Scenario techniques with strong involvement of experts  Data analysis: Desk research, workshops and scenario tool support

Institute for Mobility Research A Research Establishment of 6 ifmo Project: Changes in Young People‘s Mobility Patterns Research Questions:  Is there long term empirical evidence for a change in young people’s mobility behavior eg. reduction in car usage and drivers’ licenses?  What are the reasons behind these developments?

Institute for Mobility Research A Research Establishment of 7 ifmo Projects: Evolutionary Paths of Mobility Developments & Global Mobility Monitor Network  Evolutionary Paths of Mobility –Identify mobility patterns in industrialized countries –Application of patterns to emerging markets –Future projections for mobility developments in emerging markets  Global Mobility Monitor Network –Establish a network of experts in order to answer pressing questions on mobility in various countries. –Collect and analysis comparable transportation data for those countries over the past 10 years –Project future developments

Institute for Mobility Research A Research Establishment of 8 ifmo Project: Mobility Cultures in Megacities  Objective: Understanding mobility patterns and cultures in Megacities, identifying challenges and developing strategies for the future of urban mobility.  “Mobility Cultures in Megacities”… …stands for dealing with complex mobility issues in large scale urban agglomerations.  Integral parts of the program: a.Preliminary study for clustering cities worldwide. b.Post-Doctoral Fellowship program for questions on mobility behavior and dynamics of change. c.Summary of overall project outcomes published by Springer (2013).

Institute for Mobility Research A Research Establishment of 9 The year 2050: 70% of world population will be living in urban areas Quelle: Source: LSE Cities based on United Nations World Urbanization Prospects, 2007 Revision

Institute for Mobility Research A Research Establishment of 10 Largest share of urban population in cities < Source: LSE Cities based on the UN World Urbanisation Prospects, the 2009 revision Population by city size class (different shades for 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015)

Institute for Mobility Research A Research Establishment of 11 Relation between Air Quality, CO² Emissions and Wealth Source: McGranahan et al 2001  Adverse relation between CO² emissions and wealth  Ambient air quality decreases up to a certain wealth and then increases steadily

Institute for Mobility Research A Research Establishment of 12 Period of mass motorization Cities and Mobility: Trends and Trajectories Transit Hybrid Auto Traffic Saturated Paratransit Non- motorized Beijing Atlanta

Institute for Mobility Research A Research Establishment of 13 Potential for eco-industries in the mobility sector Development stage of cities determines areas of potential for eco- industries  Traffic saturated cities: improvements in air quality and use of capacity of infrastructure are central (high demand for clean vehicle technologies, ITS technologies, improvements in public transport)  Hybrid and Auto cities: air quality levels are typically much better than in traffic saturated cities, but CO² emissions and use of energy need to be brought down (high demand for efficient vehicles, alternative engines, ITS technologies, improvements in public transport in auto cities, multimodal solutions)

Institute for Mobility Research A Research Establishment of 14 Thank you for your attention! Contact details Institute for Mobility Research Dr. Irene Feige Institute for Mobility Research