World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water SWFDP - Eastern Africa Regional Training Workshop on Severe Weather Forecasting and Warning Services Bujumbura, Burundi, November 2013 WMO GDPFS Programme – SWFDP - Eastern Africa Peter Chen, Alice Soares WMO Secretariat, DPFS Division, WDS WMO; WDS/DPFSwww.wmo.int WMO

Outline Operational weather forecasting - the WMO’s World Weather Watch (WWW) and its Global Data-Processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS) SWFDP concepts and projects SWFDP – Eastern Africa

« Basic Systems » ?? daily public forecasts - routine severe weather warnings -Episodic - risks, impacts

The World Weather Watch System – An operational infrastructure The World Weather Watch System combines: Observing systems, GOS => WIGOS, Telecommunication, data and information exchange network, WIS (GTS), and Production - data-processing and forecasting systems (in GDPFS) Operated by Members, coordinated through the WMO Secretariat To make available meteorological and related geophysical information needed by Members for providing efficient Meteorological SERVICES

The Global Data-Processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS) of the WWW Makes available to WMO Members weather and climate analyses, forecasts and predictions to enable them to provide … high-quality predictions and forecasts, warning and information services …. Applications of NWP outputs GDPFS supports many WMO programmes and relevant programmes of other International Organizations, e.g. ICAO, IAEA, etc. (see: “Manual on the GDPFS”- WMO-No. 485)

World Weather Watch & Basic Systems S&T into operational services <= Integrated Observing System (WWW/WIGOS) <= Global Telecom & Data Management (WWW/WIS) <= Global Data-Processing and Forecasting System (WWW/GDPFS) <= National Meteorological Services providing services to public and users (PWS)

GDPFS Centres + National Meteorological Centres

Weather Forecasting Daily forecasts and weather information are available on: Open Internet Private enterprises Academic institutions Weather as news (e.g. focus on disasters) WMO Operational weather forecasting WMO’s GDPFS Centres Numerous advanced NWP Centres Authoritative, reliable and quality assured sources of information (objective verification), sustainable and replicable

GDPFS Centres GDPFS Centres are NMCs at NMHSs 24/7/365 operationally supported infrastructure (e.g. at NMCs, RSMCs, GPCs) Highly automated and robust production with backup, and recovery system Meteorological expertise Regional structure (e.g. multi-national and regional centres) for collaboration, harmonization, operational advantage

GDPFS Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project Cascading forecasting process: Global products centres => RSMCs => National Centres Collaborative Exploitation of Ensemble System Products Enhancing availability, use and applications, in probabilistic forecasting, e.g. for severe weather; Multi-model ensemble applications Long-range Forecasting (seasonal forecasts) (see Global Producing Centres => Regional => National Centres Nuclear Environmental Emergency Response Arrangements Maintain operational commitment of designated RSMCs – in coordination with International Organizations (IAEA, ICAO, CTBTO, UN-OCHA, WHO)

“In general, the public is not aware that our daily weather forecasts start out as initial value problems on the major national weather services supercomputers. “Numerical weather prediction provides the basic guidance for weather forecasting beyond the first few hours.” - Eugenia Kalnay (2003) - From: “Atmospheric Modeling, Data Assimilation and predictability” Cambridge University Press, 2003, 5th printing 2009 Numerical simulations of the atmosphere

The Challenge: mitigating the growing technological gap in weather forecasting Dramatic developments in weather forecasting science over the past two decades – advances in monitoring and NWP and Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) leading to improved alerting of weather hazards, at increased lead-times of warnings Most of NMHSs saw little progress due to limited budgets, etc. increasing gap in application of advanced technology (NWP, EPS) in early warnings WMO SWFDP attempts to close this gap by increasing availability, and developing capacity to use existing NWP and EPS 12

Why an SWFDP? WMO developed the SWFDP to improve severe weather forecasting and warning services in NMHSs where sophisticated NWP/EPS outputs are not currently used Linking Forecasting (GDPFS) with Service Delivery (PWS), and engaging regions of few countries Introducing new forecasting products into the operational environment, supported by annual training and evaluation & verification activities, to improve warning services Pave the way for promising R&D outputs (e.g. TIGGE-GIFS) in transition to operations Principal focus: hazardous weather conditions and weather-related hazards

Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) WMO Vision for improving severe weather forecasting and warning services in developing countries “NMHSs in developing countries are able to implement and maintain reliable and effective routine forecasting and severe weather warning programmes through enhanced use of NWP products and delivery of timely and authoritative forecasts and early warnings, thereby contributing to reducing the risk of disasters from natural hazards.” (World Meteorological Congress, 2007 and 2011) WMO Strategic Priorities Disaster Risk Reduction Capacity Development Climate change adaptation

Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) WMO SWFDP Main Goals Improve Severe Weather Forecasting Improve lead-time of Warnings Improve interaction of NMHSs with users: media, disaster management, civil protection authorities SWFDP Regional Subprojects Southern Africa (ongoing; 16 countries; RSMC Pretoria, RSMC La Réunion) Southwest Pacific Islands (ongoing; 9 Island States; RSMC Wellington, RSMC Fiji) Eastern Africa (ongoing, 7 countries; RSMC Nairobi, RFSC Dar) Southeast Asia (in development, 5 countries) Bay of Bengal (in development, 6 countries)

SWFDP links and synergies Regional Centre Global Centres RSMCs-TC Global NWP/EPS and Sat-based products TC Guidance Products (risk/probability) GDPFS National Met Centres (Forecast D / D+5; Bulletins) SMS; Weather Radio Systems; Public Web; etc. PWS Disaster Management and Civil Protection Specific Communication Systems Media ; etc. Radio; TV Flash Flood Guidance HWR Disaster Management and Civil Protection Specific Communication Systems General Public WWRP Research Projects Satellite Imagery and Tools WMO SP General Public and spec. users (Agriculture, Fisheries, Marine Safety, Aviation, etc.) Tailored Forecasting Products for Specialized Applications AgM, MMO, AeM, etc. Specific Comm. Systems

GIFS-TIGGE products for SWFDP (MRI-JMA) SWFDP: - Southern Africa - Eastern Africa - Southwest Pacific - Southeast Asia

SWFDP – Eastern Africa – Lake Victoria (status/progress) WMO Focus on: Strong winds Heavy precipitation Hazardous waves (Indian Ocean and Lake Victoria) Dry spells Users: general public, disaster management, media, agriculture and fisheries Domains: 5E – 55E; 30N – 25S (for monitoring, analyzing, predicting and verifying the various severe weather events) 31E – 36E; 2N – 4S (for the Lake Victoria) Global Centres: ECMWF, UKMO, NOAA/NCEP (NWP guidance material) MSG satellite products (EUMETSat products) Regional Centre: RSMC Nairobi, supported by TMA, UKMO and DWD National Met. Centres: Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda, Ethiopia, South Sudan Started September 2011

SWFDP – Eastern Africa 6 countries, RSMC Nairobi, RFSC Dar-es-Salaam, Met Office UK, NCEP USA, ECMWF, DWD RSMCNairobi Since 2011 RFSC Dar-es-Salaam since 2011

SWFDP – improving forecasts and warnings Severe weather: heavy rain, strong winds, forecast range: up to day-5 (increased lead-time) Forecasting (GDPFS) and warning services (PWS) High-impact focus (flash-flooding, wind damage, near- shore damaging waves, storm surges, etc.), and application areas (e.g. TCP, AgM, HWR, MMO, etc) Forecast verification Climate change adaptation

SWFDP – Project Framework CBS Steering Group for SWFDP REFERENCE : SWFDP Overall Project Plan (rev. 2010) RSMT_Hanoi2011/documents/SWFDP_OverallPP_Updated_ pdf SWFDP Guidebook for Planning Regional Subprojects (rev. 2010) RSMT_Hanoi2011/documents/SWFDP_Guidebook_Updated_ pdf