Elements of Risk Analysis – Hazard and Vulnerability Session 2 Dr. Bijan Khazai Risk Analysis Fundamentals of Risk Analysis 1 1

Learning Objectives Learn Understand The basic elements and processes of hazard analysis. The basic dimensions and elements in vulnerability analysis. The concepts of multi-hazard, exposure, susceptibility and resilience. Understand Spatial, dimensional and temporal components of hazard analysis. Progression of vulnerability associated with root causes, dynamic pressures, and unsafe conditions. Scales, sectors and components for vulnerability analysis. Use of indicators in vulnerability analysis. Coupling and interaction between hazard and vulnerability and the dependency of vulnerability on hazard.

Hazard Analysis Hazard analysis describes and assesses the probability of occurrence of an extreme natural event at a specific place, at a specific time, and with specific intensity and duration for a vulnerable population. Where? How Big? How Often? Output: Severity of event by location This map shows relative shaking hazards in the United States and Puerto Rico. During a 50-year time period, the probability of strong shaking increases from very low (white), to moderate (light blue, green, and yellow), to high (orange, pink, and red). Blue dots are past earthquakes. Map not to scale. Source: USGS

Where, How Big, How Often? spatial analysis Where are the areas which are potentially threatened? Analyze extent of impacted area 1 How bad can it get? What are the dimensions? Analyze local characteristics With what intensity and force do hazards occur? On what scale to the hazards occur? dimensional analysis 2 When and how often are future hazards to be expected? Analyze frequency and duration of the hazard event Intervals (or cycles) of recurrence temporal analysis 3

Multi-hazard Analysis Analysis of only single hazards in an area might lead to a misjudgement of the „all hazards“ risks for these areas. Indexing can be one way of combining different hazards in one map. Hazards may be weighted equally or weights can be assigned based on the frequency of each hazard. Comparisons between the impact of different natural hazards on a population are more correctly performed by examining risk rather than hazard indicators.

Vulnerability Paradox: Measuring vulnerability without precisely defining it! “Vulnerability defined as conditions determined by physical, social, economic, and environmental factors or processes, which increase the susceptibility of a community to the impact of hazards.” (UNISDR, 2004) Multi-structures of Vulnerability Exposure/Value Fragility/Susceptibility Coping Capacity/Resilience

Progression of Vulnerability THE PROGRESS OF VULNERABILITY 1 2 3 ROOT CAUSES DYNAMIC PRESSURES UNSAFE CONDITIONS HAZARDS Physical Environment: Dangerous Locations Unprotected buildings and infrastructure Economy: Livelihoods at risk Low income level Social Relations: Populations at risk Lack of solidarity Public actions and Institutions: Lack of disaster preparedness Lack of: Legal frameworks Institutions Training Appropriate skills Local Investments Press Freedom Ethical Standards in public life Earthquake Wind storms (cyclone/ hurricane/ Typhoon) Flooding Volcanic eruption Landslides Drought Virus and pests Limited Access to: Power Structures Resources Disaster Ideologies: Political Systems Economic Systems Macro Forces Rapid Population change Rapid Urbanization Source: Blaike et al. (1996)

Vulnerability Intervention A Vulnerability Framework HAZARD Hazard Intervention International/National Sub-national Local Vulnerability Intervention VULNERABILITY SUSCEPTIBILITY and FRAGILITY LACK OF RESILIENCE Exposure Reduction Fragility / Susceptibility Resilience Improvement EXPOSURE Physical Ecological Social Economic Cultural Institutional Capacity to anticipate Spatial/ Temporal Capacity to cope Capacity to recover Adjusted from MOVE (2009)

Resilience Resilience is the capacity of an individual, community, organization, city, nation to respond, cope and recover from a disaster. Resilience in physical and social systems can be seen as having four infrastructural qualities: Robustness: the inherent strength or resistance in a system to withstand external demands without degradation or loss of functionality; Redundancy: system properties that allow for alternate options, choices, and substitutions under stress; Resourcefulness: the capacity to mobilize needed resources and services in emergencies; and Rapidity: the speed with which disruption can be overcome and safety, services, and financial stability restored.

Vulnerability Dependency on Hazard Degree of Vulnerability of an infrastructure, a community, a society or a process should be related to the magnitude of the hazard in question through fragility curves (or fragility functions). Maize Sorghum

Scales, Sectors and Components of Vulnerability “fractal” nature of Vulnerability “Ministry of Education” “School District” “School Principal” Source: Villagrán, (2001)

Vulnerability Analysis - Indicators Many aspects of vulnerability cannot be directly measured or observed, though they can be described. Indicators have been used broadly in economic, social and environmental analysis of vulnerability. Vulnerability indicators should provide information regarding the susceptibility, coping capacity and resilience of a system. Below is a mathematical description of risk as a function of the nature of a hazard and the vulnerability to that hazard. .

A Social Vulnerability Index Theme Fragility Factors (-) Resilience Factors (+) Social Fragility How do personal attributes and living situations affect vulnerability? How do finances contribute to recovery? Coping Capacity How do social networks affect vulnerability? How does access to services affect vulnerability? Conceptual Framework 1 Family Structure 2 Poverty 3 Unemployment 4 Disability 5 Home/Land Ownership 1 Social Networks 2 Risk Perception 3 Risk Mitigation 4 Community Preparedness 5 Mobility Quantitative Indicators Social Vulnerability Index Source: MIS model , 2009

Process of Risk Analysis EVENT Time HAZARD DAMAGES & LOSSES Space VULNERABILITY Exposed Assets Physical, Social, Environmental, Financial Physical Financial Social Environmental Susceptibility Coping Capacity RISK Space Time INTERVENTION