RECENT ECONOMIC AND RESIDENTIAL MARKET TRENDS AND FORECAST PORTLAND METROPOLITAN AREA TICOR TITLE January 2010 Jerry Johnson Principal Johnson Reid, LLC.

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Presentation transcript:

RECENT ECONOMIC AND RESIDENTIAL MARKET TRENDS AND FORECAST PORTLAND METROPOLITAN AREA TICOR TITLE January 2010 Jerry Johnson Principal Johnson Reid, LLC

NATIONAL GDP GROWTH

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SERIES

NEGATIVE EQUITY MORTGAGES SOURCE: First American CoreLogic, August 2009

RESIDENTIAL LOAN BALANCES THAT WILL EXPERIENCE PAYSHOCK

HOME PRICING TRENDS SOURCE: Case-Schiller

National-Standard & Poors Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

Area 147 …LO/WL Average Sales Price

Area 151 …Wilsonville Average Sales Price

COMMERCIAL PRICING TRENDS SOURCE: MIT

NATIONAL HOME SALES TRENDS SOURCE: NAR

FINANCING FOR HOMEBUYERS OCTOBER 2009 SOURCE: Campbell Communications

YEAR OVER YEAR EMPLOYMENT CHANGE Portland Metro Area SOURCE: OLMIS

EMPLOYMENT CHANGE BY SECTOR – Portland Metro Area Sep-08-Sep-09 SOURCE: OLMIS

EXPANDING AND DECLINING INDUSTRY SECTORS - OREGON SOURCE: OLMIS

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE Baseline and with Discouraged SOURCE: BLS

NET CHANGE IN POPULATION PORTLAND METRO AREA SOURCE: Portland State Pop Center and Washington Office of Financial Management

POPULATION BY COUNTY Last Ten Years SOURCE: Portland State Pop Center and Washington Office of Financial Management

RESIDENTIAL PERMIT TRENDS

HOMEOWNER VACANCY RATES – NATIONAL AVERAGE SOURCE: Census Bureau

CMA – Vacancy

RENTAL VACANCY RATES – NATIONAL AVERAGE SOURCE: Census Bureau

ECONOMIC/DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS SUMMARY CONFIDENCE LOW –High Unemployment –Significant Percentage of Negative Equity BANKS WILL REMAIN ON DEFENSIVE –Residential Bust Followed by Commercial Bust –Foreclosures Likely to Continue LOCAL EMPLOYMENT TRENDS NEGATIVE –Loss of 60,000 Jobs –Employment Back at 2005 Levels PRICING APPEARS TO HAVE FOUND A BOTTOM –Lots of Residential Overhang Remains

OWNERSHIP RESIDENTIAL MARKET

CASE-SHILLER INDEX SOURCE: S&P/Case Shiller, Seasonally Adjusted

PORTLAND METRO AREA MEDIAN HOME PRICE TRENDS

HOUSING TRENDS

PORTLAND METRO AREA MEDIAN HOME PRICE TRENDS

PORTLAND METRO AREA MEDIAN HOME PRICE FORECAST

STANDING RESIDENTIAL INVENTORY IN MONTHS PORTLAND METRO AREA SOURCE: Realtors Multiple Listing Service

STANDING RESIDENTIAL INVENTORY IN MONTHS PORTLAND METRO AREA

RESIDENTIAL INVENTORY PORTLAND METRO AREA SOURCE: Realtors Multiple Listing Service

RESIDENTIAL INVENTORY PORTLAND METRO AREA SOURCE: Realtors Multiple Listing Service

NEW LISTINGS AND CLOSED SALES PORTLAND METRO AREA SOURCE: Realtors Multiple Listing Service

UNIT INVENTORY BY GEOGRAPHY AND TYPE

RESIDENTIAL INVENTORY TRENDS

STANDING INVENTORY IN MONTHS

STANDING INVENTORY BY PRICE RANGE – SEPT-09

STANDING INVENTORY BY PRICE AND COUNTY – SEPT-08

RESIDENTIAL LOT INVENTORY PORTLAND METRO AREA

ESTIMATED INVENTORY OF LOTS IN MONTHS SOURCE: Realtors Multiple Listing Service

PENDING LOT INVENTORY PORTLAND METRO AREA

MARKET CONCLUSIONS FUNDAMENTALS IMPROVING –Standing Inventory at 6.5 Months –Very Low New Home Inventory THREATS REMAIN ON HORIZON –Pricing Stabilizing, but Foreclosures Coming –Unemployment Too High – Will Peak in 2010 PRICING POWER LIMITED –Shadow Inventory –Limited Confidence CONDO MARKET DEAD UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE

MARKET CONCLUSIONS FIRST TIME TAX CREDIT –Less Effective over Time –May be Setting Up FHA for Crash CHANGE IN PRODUCT TYPE –First Time Homebuyer Target –Loss in Equity Will Impact Move-Up Markets METRO – URBAN GROWTH REPORT –Not Even Trying Anymore –Expect No New Residential Land

PRELIMINARY UGR RESIDENTIAL CAPACITY