The North American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 11 June 2012.

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Presentation transcript:

The North American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 11 June 2012

Outline Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Summary Climatology

Rainfall Patterns: Last 7 Days Below-normal rainfall has been observed over much of southern and eastern Mexico during the past week.

Rainfall Patterns: Last 30 Days Below-normal rainfall has been observed over much of eastern and southern Mexico during the past 30 days.

Recent Evolution: Rainfall

NCEP/GFS Forecast Below-normal precipitations are predicted over most of Mexico for both week 1 ( June) and week 2 (18-24 June).

Summary Below-normal rainfall has been observed over much of southern and eastern Mexico during the past week. The NCEP GFS forecasts below-normal precipitations over most of Mexico for both week 1 (11-17 June) and week 2 (18-24 June).

Climatology MONSOON ONSET June 5 June 6 June 8June 7 June 14 June 17June 16 June 23 June 27June 25June 29 July 3July 6July 11 July 7July 8July 13 July 9July 13July 14 June 10June 11 June 22June 21 Higgins, R. W., Y. Chen and A. V. Douglas, 1999: Interannual Variability of the North American Warm Season Precipitation Regime. J. Clim, 17,

Precipitation Climatology