Role of livestock in the regional economy Impact of drought in the IGAD region Ricarda Mondry FAO Sub- Regional Office for Eastern Africa (SFE) Ministerial Roundtable on Index Based Livestock Insurance in the IGAD region

Role of livestock sector in the IGAD region supplies very substantial numbers of livestock to domestic, regional and international markets and therefore, makes crucial – but often undervalued – contributions to national and regional economies (traction, fertilizer, processing, marketing) livestock provides economic stability to the farm or household, acting as a cash buffer (small livestock) and as capital reserve (large animals) livestock products make an important contribution to food security: counteract stunting and prevailing micronutrient deficiency when the agricultural sector performs well, the entire economy performs well, with the converse equally true

% of population for which livestock is main source of livelihood Contribution to GDP and % of population for which livestock is main source of livelihood   camel cattle goat sheep pig chicken mio TLU livestock GDP /total GDP % of population for which livestock is main source of livelihood Djibouti 0.1 0.3 0.5 nn 1 3% 33% Eritrea 0.4 2.1 18.0 2.4 1.4 6 10% 35% Ethiopia 1.2 61.0 31.0 32.0 0.0 59.5 79 17% 53% Kenya 3.3 18.3 24.7 18.8 0.6 48.1 38 14% 63% Somalia 7.2 4.8 11.5 11.0 3.6 24 54% 65% South Sudan 11.8 13.6 17.8 15.0 27 25% 62% Sudan 4.9 30.7 31.4 40.5 48.3 71 23% 59% Uganda 15.4 15.7 2.6 35.7 15 8% 58% 261 plus 8-10% processing marketing fertilizer, traction

Importance of livestock sector in IGAD region Ethiopia has the largest and Sudan the second largest number of livestock in Africa South Sudan’s livestock population is estimated to have an asset value of 2.2 billion dollars — the highest per capita holding in Africa Kenya has one of the largest and most sophisticated dairy industry in Africa with over 5 Billion l of milk produced per year

Opportunities for the livestock sector due to population grow, urbanization and increasing income, demand in livestock products will increase continuously in the IGAD region recommended consumption 30kg meat, 90kg dairy, 15kg eggs per person per year in most IGAD countries consumption is around 1/3 of these quantities this is an opportunity to increase incomes of rural poor population not to miss crop production is much more at risk during drought than livestock production

Challenges for the livestock sector highest risk is through drought 70 percent of the IGAD region is made up of ASALs – 30% of population high degree of variability in rainfall patterns in terms of both space and time prone to recurrent droughts and dry spells, making it one of the most vulnerable regions on the African continent for climatic variations contributes to food insecurity, famine and poverty; can fuel social, economic and political tensions that can cause conflicts and wide poverty Institutional: unclear/uncertain land tenure to secure critical dry season grazing areas and water sources often lost to permanent settlers, commercial agriculture, irrigation projects, mines, game reserves evidence of climate change in the IGAD region is unmistakable: temperatures have risen, rainfall has become irregular and unpredictable, and increase in the incidence of extreme weather events

Monthly forage condition in Kenya’s ASALS from 1996 to 2017

Impact of draught on the individual household lack of drinking water, poor pasture conditions and increased prices of feed for livestock pastoralists move larger distances, loss of energy for animals, further decreases their body condition, can lead to conflict with permanent settler and further loss of animals increased susceptibility to diseases lower productivity of animals, death of animals, long term reduced reproductivity, stunting of calves leading later to less productive animals, hasty uncoordinated selling or slaughtering of animals causes an initial decrease in meat prices due to overabundance of meat reduced TOT: as livestock prices decrease, and maize prices increase, TOT become less beneficial for livestock keepers, influencing their ability to purchase essential foods reduced food security of household and poverty foregone value of production until re-stocked livestock becomes fully productive again later, in urban households, this is followed by an increase in meat prices as there are less animals and the price to feed and water the animals has increased

Impact of draught on countries Ethiopia 2008 52% mortality 2011 23% mortality Kenya 2008-2011 8.9 billion USD long term loss 1 billion USD per year or 2% of GDP Somalia 2017 3.3 billion USD loss, intervention 1.77 billion USD of which 400 million USD revenue loss from live animal exports in 2017 Uganda 2008 47 million USD 2011 907 million USD

Impact of draught on IGAD region 2011 drought impacted more than 12 million people 2017 drought impacted more than 17 million people livestock mortality rate in the affected pastoral areas was 15–30 percent, with that of cattle and sheep as high as 40–60 percent in some areas corresponds in total around 20% of TLU 2011: 10.7 billion USD direct loss and additionally average of 2% GDP/5 years Estimations for cost of the early action required for the expected drought period this year exceed already 40 Million USD

prevention is better than treatment

Thank you Protecting people, animals, and the environment everyday Drawings: FAO/Chiara Caproni