IR: The New World of International Relations Michael G. Roskin and Nicholas O. Berry Chapter 14 Nuclear Politics: The Bomb Is Here to Stay Copyright @ 2010, 2008, 2005 Pearson Education, Inc.

Nuclear Weapons Copyright @ 2010, 2008, 2005 Pearson Education, Inc.

Nuclear Destruction Hiroshima, 1945 Copyright @ 2010, 2008, 2005 Pearson Education, Inc.

Weapon of War: Early History Scientists urged FDR to develop atomic bomb during World War II; feared Nazis would get it first Truman had no problem using bomb on Japan; wanted to avoid bloody invasion of Japanese home islands After war, Truman wanted to put bomb technology under international control Soviets refused; would give US permanent lead With Cold War’s onset and Soviets getting bomb, Truman recognized bomb’s deterrent value and created B-52 strike capability John Foster Dulles, Eisenhower’s Secretary of State, urged “massive retaliation” as main US deterrent of USSR Avoided costly, large conventional forces; small US forces in Europe were “trip wire” against Soviet attack Copyright @ 2010, 2008, 2005 Pearson Education, Inc.

Nuclear and Thermonuclear Weapons Nuclear bombs – those dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki – operate by fission, splitting uranium atoms U-235 refined in minute quantities from ore to a purity of 90% or more: weapons grade uranium A conventional explosive compresses U-235 core in bomb, setting off chain reaction of neutrons causing detonation Thermonuclear bombs operate by fusion: a nuclear explosion fuses deuterium (heavy hydrogen atoms) into helium atoms Thermonuclear explosions are many times more powerful than nuclear ones Copyright @ 2010, 2008, 2005 Pearson Education, Inc.

Alliance Building Nuclear weapons helped US and USSR build alliances in Cold War They could provide “extended deterrence,” a nuclear umbrella to protect allies US alliances included NATO, ANZUS (Australia and New Zealand), and SEATO for Southeast Asia These alliances provided superpowers access to, and influence over, allies’ foreign policy processes JFK’s innovation of “flexible response” suggested US might choose when and where to use deterrent; France left NATO as a result to build its own nuclear deterrent Copyright @ 2010, 2008, 2005 Pearson Education, Inc.

International Prestige Possession of nuclear weapons accords a country prestige internationally --France’s Charles de Gaulle used his force de frappe to restore France’s prestige, lost by rise of America Other countries will be more cautious and accommodating in response Having nukes may build political support at home But, some countries have found obtaining nukes not worth the cost or not needed regionally (South Africa, Brazil) Copyright @ 2010, 2008, 2005 Pearson Education, Inc.

Nuclear Strategies Second-Strike Capability: When a state can absorb a first strike and retaliate with “unacceptable damage” First-Strike Capability: When a state thinks it can destroy an enemy’s second-strike capability Countervalue Attack: Targeting the economy and population of an enemy Counterforce Attack: Targeting an enemy’s military forces, especially missile sites Extended Deterrence: A superpower protects allies by treating an attack on them as an attack on itself Minimum Deterrence: Having even a few nukes for a credible second-strike capability Copyright @ 2010, 2008, 2005 Pearson Education, Inc.

Nuclear Proliferation – Great Powers Early development of nukes by Britain, France, and China gave prestige and access to nuclear policy decisions by superpowers France feared US nuclear umbrella might not be applied to France if Soviets attacked in Europe Mao had conflicts with Khrushchev and Brezhnev, who viewed China’s goals risky, and wanted separate defense against US (and possibly against Soviet Union) Great powers with nukes have much to lose by threatening their use; leaders tend to be cautious Copyright @ 2010, 2008, 2005 Pearson Education, Inc.

Disarmament Bush and Putin exchange treaty reducing nuclear warheads Copyright @ 2010, 2008, 2005 Pearson Education, Inc.

Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Superpowers had common interest in preventing proliferation of nukes: maintain their prestige and control of policy Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and other arms control agreements’ advantages: (1) Decrease threats and increase cooperation (2) Enhance deterrence – neither side has enough for first strike (3) Reduce costs for maintaining expensive armaments (4) Stabilize distribution of power – Superpowers keep their advantage and control (5) May aid in keeping nukes from terrorists, who might more easily get them from weak, or cooperating, states (Pakistan, N. Korea) Copyright @ 2010, 2008, 2005 Pearson Education, Inc.

Nuclear Proliferators – Smaller States Significant non-signers of NPT: Cuba, South Africa, Israel, India, Pakistan, Brazil, Argentina India and Pakistan have fought three wars, have major disputed claims over Kashmir; nukes important part of defense strategy Argentina and Brazil engaged in prestige competition over developing nukes; civilian regimes decided too costly, and unnecessary in Latin American region South Africa’s nuclear program ended to prevent weapons being turned over to future black government Israel allegedly has nukes, for defense in midst of hostile Arab region With break-up of USSR, some nuclear material has reached international market; fear it may fall into hands of terrorists Copyright @ 2010, 2008, 2005 Pearson Education, Inc.

Nuclear Powers Copyright @ 2010, 2008, 2005 Pearson Education, Inc.

Outcome of Nuclear Weapons’ Use Political functions of nukes would end; deterrence failed Disarming attacks more likely, to prevent further attacks Economies would collapse from hitting key targets, such as Persian Gulf oil facilities War would escalate, with other states drawn in Nuclear decapitation would knock out countries’ political leadership, hindering settlement of conflicts Nuclear winter result, a planetary ecological disaster, likely destroying modern civilization War would be hard to end; could go on for years, decades Copyright @ 2010, 2008, 2005 Pearson Education, Inc.

Hiroshima’s Peace Park diorama of atomic blast effects Nuclear Outcome Hiroshima’s Peace Park diorama of atomic blast effects Copyright @ 2010, 2008, 2005 Pearson Education, Inc.