Quality of current PM emission inventories Kristin Rypdal, Chair of Task Force on Emission Inventories and Projections

Overview Information about progress of the Task Force on Emission Inventories and Projections since last May Address specific questions asked by the co-chairs Are PM emission inventories robust? What are the most important uncertainties? How might PM emission inventories be improved?

Are PM emissions inventories robust? Reported PM inventories are underestimated Few Parties are reporting time-series and sector data for TSP, PM10 and PM2.5 Inventories are often not complete with respect to sources included Emission inventory methodologies have not been developed or described for all sources Large uncertainties in some emission factors Fugitive sources are weakly characterised

What are the important uncertainties in PM emissions inventories? Generally PM2.5 is less uncertain than larger fractions Because fugitive sources are less important Really large uncertainties Fugitive sources and new sources (often poorly characterised) Priorities identified by TFEIP for emission factor/guidance Small-scale and industrial combustion Processes in iron and steel industries Off-road sources Residential waste combustion Burning of agricultural residues Some ”new sources”

What are the important uncertainties in PM emissions inventories? Activity data can also be uncertain: Residential wood consumption and small-scale burning more uncertain than fossil fuel combustion. Activity data to estimate fugitive sources can be unavailable Chemical and size speciation Is addressed by the PM Task group Slow progress due to little funding Try to build on existing and future projects

How might PM emissions inventories be improved? Development of better guidance The EU Commission will probably soon launch a contract to improve guidance (development of the Emission Inventory Guidebook) and datasets Strengthening of reporting requirements Not possible until there is a Protocol Invites this expert group to provide input to the Revisions of the Emission reporting guidelines next year Focus in the review process Review of PM inventories will be prioritised in 2006 Parties will receive direct feedback on their reporting

How might PM emissions inventories be improved? Higher priorities in the inventory agencies A protocol or EU directive will probably help Large recalculations of historical data are anticipated in the development phase Uncertainties can be reduced, but improvements can take time!