1. 9th TFMM, Bordeaux, France, 23-25 April 2008
Feedback of the joint TFMM/TFEIP workshop (Dublin, October 2007) on uncertainties in emissions, measurement and modelling
Peter Builtjes, TNO and Free Univ. Berlin
John van Aardenne, EC, DG JRC

2. I). Aim of the Dublin workshop II). Overview III)
I) Aim of the Dublin workshop II) Overview III) Results and Conclusions
Feedback of the joint TFMM/TFEIP workshop on uncertainties in emissions, measurement and modelling
9th TFMM, Bordeaux, France, April 2008

3. I) Aim of the Dublin workshop
Science : To determine/discuss the uncertainties in emissions, measurements and modelling
(Policy : How to act appropriate, knowing that our knowledge is uncertain)
Aim : Bringing together experience on uncertainty in emission inventories, air quality observations and modelling (= meteorology + CTM)
Focus on three Case Studies: Ozone, PM and Heavy Metals
Feedback of the joint TFMM/TFEIP workshop on uncertainties in emissions, measurement and modelling
9th TFMM, Bordeaux, France, April 2008

4. II) Overview General Aspects:
Uncertainty in emissions: aims to determine where improvements should be made
Uncertainty in observations: data quality objectives and spatial representativeness (more important)
Uncertainty in modelling: both in meteorology (like vertical exchange, stable boundary layers, clouds) and in processes in the CTM’s
Feedback of the joint TFMM/TFEIP workshop on uncertainties in emissions, measurement and modelling
9th TFMM, Bordeaux, France, April 2008

5. Case Study Ozone (Influence hemispherical background on Ozone over Europe ?)
The large uncertainty in the NOx/VOC emissions of sources like domestic combustion, open waste burning and soil NOx- emissions become more important with decreasing NOx and VOC emissions from the main anthropogenic sources
NOx and VOC-emission trends are in line with observed changes in Ozone-concentrations
Monte Carlo and Ensemble as methods to determine model uncertainty
Feedback of the joint TFMM/TFEIP workshop on uncertainties in emissions, measurement and modelling
9th TFMM, Bordeaux, France, April 2008

6. Case Study PM (Underestimation model results due to lacking emissions
Residential biomass burning and agricultural emissions underestimated
Fugitive sources (industrial/agricultural) are problematic
EC/OC speciation in PM-emissions is needed
Problem of non-reported emissions/emissions that do not have to be reported: they do exist nevertheless (windblow dust, resuspension, agricultural area treatment)
Feedback of the joint TFMM/TFEIP workshop on uncertainties in emissions, measurement and modelling
9th TFMM, Bordeaux, France, April 2008

7. Compare modelled and observed PM-components, not just PM as a total
Comparibility of PM-emission measurements and PM- concentration measurements is a problem
Compare modelled and observed PM-components, not just PM as a total
Modelling indicates emissions by woodburning: Underestimation in Central/Southern Europe and overestimation in Northern Europe
Modelling indicates emissions by traffic: Underestimation in Central/Southern Europe (resuspension?)
Feedback of the joint TFMM/TFEIP workshop on uncertainties in emissions, measurement and modelling
9th TFMM, Bordeaux, France, April 2008

8. Case Study HM-Pd, Cd, Hg (Models indicate HM-emissions underestimated, is that correct?)
Uncertainties in emissions due to missing sources like resuspension
Uncertainties in fugitive emissions
Model-measurement show underestimation Pb by 20-30% Cd by 30-50% Hg OK
Inverse modelling would require one HM-station per country
Feedback of the joint TFMM/TFEIP workshop on uncertainties in emissions, measurement and modelling
9th TFMM, Bordeaux, France, April 2008

9. III) Results and Conclusions
Reported emissions should contain speciation for VOC and PM (EC/OC)
Meteorological data needed for specific sources like NH3, Windblowndust
Non-inventory emission sources are important for the overal assessment and policy
Feedback of the joint TFMM/TFEIP workshop on uncertainties in emissions, measurement and modelling
9th TFMM, Bordeaux, France, April 2008

10. Finer spatial and temporal emission data are needed for local air pollution studies
For HM-emissions more detailed activity data and emission factors are essential
Feedback of the joint TFMM/TFEIP workshop on uncertainties in emissions, measurement and modelling
9th TFMM, Bordeaux, France, April 2008

11. Model uncertainty about 30-40 %
Given:
Model uncertainty about %
Overall measurement uncertainty about %
Leads to the hypothesis:
Discrepancy between model and observations of larger than 50 % might well be due to emissions
Feedback of the joint TFMM/TFEIP workshop on uncertainties in emissions, measurement and modelling
9th TFMM, Bordeaux, France, April 2008

12. General feeling of the participants
Usefull workshop
Repeat in about 2 year
Feedback of the joint TFMM/TFEIP workshop on uncertainties in emissions, measurement and modelling
9th TFMM, Bordeaux, France, April 2008