The Irish economic and consumer outlook Retail Ireland Annual Conference May 23rd 2013 Fergal O’Brien Chief Economist.

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Presentation transcript:

The Irish economic and consumer outlook Retail Ireland Annual Conference May 23rd 2013 Fergal O’Brien Chief Economist

International markets’ confidence in Ireland returned and successful exit from EU-IMF bailout increasingly likely

85% of austerity has been delivered….. Adjustments in public finances to date % GDP July 2008-April 2009 €10.5 bn Budget 2010 €4.3 bn 2.8 Budget 2011 €6.0 bn 3.8 Budget 2012 €3.8 bn 2.4 Budget 2013 €3.5 bn 2.1 Total to date €28.1 bn Adjustments planned Budget 2014 €3.1 bn 1.8 Budget 2015 €2.0 bn 1.1 Total planned €8.6 bn TOTAL 2008-2015 €33.2 bn

Exports continued to drive GDP growth in 2012, but evidence of some rebalancing also

IBEC economic forecasts 2013/’14 % change 2011 2012 2013 2014 Consumer Spending -2.4 -0.9 0.0 1.0 Investment -12.6 1.2 7.1 9.6 Exports 5.1 2.9 3.0 4.0 GDP 1.4 0.9 1.8 2.5 GNP -2.5 3.4 1.9 Inflation (CPI) 2.6 1.7 1.3 Unemployment (%) 14.6 14.7 13.9 13.3

Private sector employment returned to growth during 2012

Consumer sentiment strengthened during 2012, but subdued in recent months

Domestic economy improved in H2 2012 but tough Q1 ***Electrical goods in particular received a boost thanks to the summer sporting events and digital switchover.

Consumer fundamentals improving – particularly incomes

Irish households by type

Spending power improving marginally in 2013