ARE COUNTRIES ON TRACK TO ACHIEVE SDG 4? MEETING COMMITMENTS ARE COUNTRIES ON TRACK TO ACHIEVE SDG 4? Permanent Observer Mission of the African Union to the United Nations New York, 09 July 2019 Silvia Montoya, Director UNESCO Institute for Statistics Manos Antoninis, Director, Global Education Monitoring Report Meeting Commitments: Are Countries on Track to Achieve SDG 4?

The UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS) is the official source of cross-nationally comparable data on education, as ratified by the E2030 FFA. It is also responsible to work with partners to develop new indicators, statistical approaches and monitoring tools to better assess progress across the targets related to UNESCO’s mandate. The Global Education Monitoring Report (GEMR) is the mechanism for monitoring and reporting on SDG 4 as part of the overall SDG follow-up and review. Meeting Commitments: Are Countries on Track to Achieve SDG 4? Together, we have produced the very first projections of selected indicators for SDG 4 to see the extent to which the world is on or off track to achieve SDG 4.

SDG 4 global monitoring framework: one goal, ten targets 4.1 Primary and secondary education 4.2 Early childhood 4.3 Technical and tertiary education 4.4 Skills for work 4.5 Equity 4.6 Literacy 4.7 Sustainable development 4.a Learning environments 4.b Scholarship 4.c Teachers Finance Universality: for all countries Inclusion: leave no one behind Linkages: collaboration across sectors

Target 4.1: Primary and secondary education enrolment More than 220 million children, adolescents and youth will still be out of school in 2030 Projected out-of-school rates in low-income countries in 2030 31% of adolescents of lower secondary school age 19% of children of primary school age If current trends continue, almost 1 in 6 children and youth (between the ages of about 6-17) will still be out of school in 2030. As shown in this chart, which focuses on adolescents between the ages of about 12-14 years, there has been no progress in reducing the out-of-school rate since about 2010 just after the growth in aid to education came to a halt following the financial crisis. Focus specifically on low-income countries. According to our projections, 19% of children of primary school age 31% of adolescents of lower secondary school age 50% of youth of upper secondary school age Will be out of school in 2030. 50% of youth of upper secondary school age Source: UIS database and projections.

Target 4.1: Primary and secondary education completion Only six in 10 young people will be finishing secondary school in 2030 Projected completion rates globally in 2030 93% in primary 85% in lower secondary 60% in upper secondary The current pace of progress is insufficient to achieve Target 4.1 without a transformational departure from past trajectories. While universal completion remains an aspirational target, countries’ performance should be assess against ambitious but achievable benchmarks at the regional level. It should be noted that the projections presented in this slide are based on the ultimate cohort completion rate – i.e. take into account children/youth 3-5 years above the intended age for the last grade. Source: GEM Report team estimates and projections.

Target 4.1: Primary and secondary education learning The world will approach the learning target only if progress equals the rate of the best-performing countries In Latin America: nearly 60% of Grade 3 students reach minimum proficiency in 2030, the proportion will stay the same if the average trend continues But it could reach 80% at the rate of the best-performing country It is also important to note a downward trend in Francophone African countries. According to PASEC results for 10 countries, 42% of grade 6 students achieve minimum proficiency but this proportion could drop by nearly one-third in 2030. Source: UIS estimates and projections.

Target 4.2: Early childhood Access to early childhood education is expanding but low- and middle-income countries have to catch up Pre-primary participation rate (children one year younger than official primary school entry age) Global rate expected to rise from 69% to 82% in 2030 Pre-primary gross enrolment ratio Global rate increased from 32% to 50% since 2000 and expected to reach 68% in 2030 Source: UIS database and projections.

Target 4.3: Technical, vocational, tertiary and adult education Tertiary education systems will keep expanding over the next 10 years Tertiary gross enrolment ratio: Increased from 19% to 38% from 2000 – 2017 globally Expected to reach 52% in middle income countries in 2030, but very modest increase in low income countries. The biggest increase in tertiary enrolment ratios expected in middle-income countries. Source: UIS database and projections.

Target 4.5: Equity The greatest disparities are based on wealth, especially in poor countries Disparities by wealth For every 100 of the richest youth who complete upper secondary, those who do among the poorest youth are: 85 in high-income 64 in upper-middle-income 19 in lower-middle-income 11 in low-income countries Disparities by location and gender In low income countries: 26 rural youth complete upper secondary for every 100 urban youth 70 young women complete upper secondary for every 100 young men The greatest disparities appear to be linked to wealth although sex and location must also be taken into account. Considerable work with partners is now underway to produce more data on disability and education. Source: World Inequality Database on Education.

Target 4.5: Equity The greatest disparities are based on wealth, especially in poor countries Disparities by wealth For every 100 of the richest youth who complete upper secondary, those who do among the poorest youth are: 85 in high-income 64 in upper-middle-income 19 in lower-middle-income 11 in low-income countries Disparities by location and gender In low income countries: 26 rural youth complete upper secondary for every 100 urban youth 70 young women complete upper secondary for every 100 young men The greatest disparities appear to be linked to wealth although sex and location must also be taken into account. Considerable work with partners is now underway to produce more data on disability and education. Source: World Inequality Database on Education.

Target 4.c: Teachers The proportion of trained teachers is falling in sub-Saharan Africa Only 64% of primary and 50% of secondary school teachers have the minimum required training in Sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of trained teachers is falling in Sub-Saharan Africa, which is the only region to face a growing school-age population. Many countries are recruiting contract teachers, who often lack training. Greater investment is needed for the training and recruitment of teachers and new pedagogical approaches to support quality education. Source: UIS database.

Finance At least one-quarter of all countries spend less than 4% of GDP and less than 15% of their budget on education Main message: 43 out of 148 countries from different income groups or regions did not meet either benchmark. Source: GEM Report team analysis based on UIS (government and household) and OECD CRS (donor) databases.

Finance – Aid to education Share of education in total aid has fallen from 10% in 2010 to 7% in 2017 Source: GEM Report team analysis based on OECD CRS.

Monitoring progress in SDG 4 remains challenging Areas to improve: Benchmarks for countries are missing Methodologies and measurement tools still being developed Data availability below 50% for flagship indicators Countries and partners must: Finance data collection in poor countries by $60 million more per year Coordinate and align all support with SDG 4 Broker the supply of funds with the demand for data Countries need more and better data to target education policies and resources. Yet today: Less than half of countries can report data for key indicators on learning Shortfall of US$132 million per year to produce global and thematic SDG 4 indicators

A call to action to monitor and deliver on SDG 4 Governments should finance Partners should coordinate Beyond AVERAGES equity and inclusion Household surveys with ministries of education working with NSOs Financing of household surveys and pooling of existing information Beyond ACCESS quality and learning National assessments and participation in cross-national assessments Financing of learning assessments and of capacity development Beyond BASICS content fit for sustainable development Policy dialogue in analyses of curricula and textbooks Analyses of curricula and textbooks Beyond SCHOOLING lifelong learning Labour force surveys and direct skills assessments Improvements in labour force survey questions Beyond EDUCATION cross-sectoral collaboration Coordinate to develop key indicators especially in early childhood Beyond COUNTRIES regional/global collaboration Strengthen coordination in the Technical Cooperation Group Broker between donors and countries

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