IETA conference in Lisbon, 17th of April

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Presentation transcript:

Remarks on CO2 price development lately and major price drivers the next couple of years IETA conference in Lisbon, 17th of April Senior Analyst Espen Andreassen

Copyright Wattsight AS How did we get from 6 €/t to 26 €/t over 13 months (August 2017-September 2018)? Copyright Wattsight AS 28. juli 2019

Copyright Wattsight AS Bearish factor 1: European coal emissions impacted by member states policies and new EU pollution standards Copyright Wattsight AS 28. juli 2019

Bearish factor 2: Industrial outlooks pointing in a weak direction Industrial outlooks is in general considered weak, and EU GDP growth has been strongly revised down for 2019 by various institutes EUA price >20 €/t is difficult to handle for various carbon and power intensive sectors Copyright Wattsight AS 28. juli 2019

We expect 19 €/t as an average price towards 2030 The coming years’ outlooks for manufacturing industries and coal’s share in the power have weakened significantly compared to a couple of years ago We expect average EUA prices over 2020- 2030 at 19 €/t to balance demand with available supply A major bullish factor to look out for: Less than 50 TWh/year of renewables inflow Copyright Wattsight AS 28. juli 2019

Thank you for your attention For more information visit www.wattsight.com Senior Analyst Espen Andreassen, ean@wattsight.com This publication has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only, and does not constitute professional advice. You should not act upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining specific professional advice. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this publication, and, to the extent permitted by law, Wattsight AS do not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for any decision based on it. © 2018 Wattsight AS. All rights reserved.