Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation Charles W. Rice Soil Microbiologist Department of Agronomy Lead Author, IPCC AR4 WGIII K-State Research and Extension

Source: Petit et al Thousands of years Atmospheric CO 2 (ppmv) Human perturbation

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group III, 2007

Impact

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, 2007

2020s 2050s 2080s Initially increased agricultural productivity in some mid-latitude regions & reduction in the tropics and sub-tropics even with warming of a few degrees

North America: Key messages A wide range of impacts of climate change are now clearly documented Risks from future impacts concentrated on extreme events Vulnerable people and activities (including ag) in almost every region –Increase number, intensity, and duration of heat waves –Changes in precipitation patterns Water resources will constrain potential crop yield increases and increase competition for water resources Warmer nights and winters may increase pest and disease in agriculture Opportunities for improving adaptation Opportunities for mitigation IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, 2007

Mitigation

Filling The Technology Gap Tg C yr -1 Slide courtesy of Jae Edmonds Stabilizing CO 2 concentrations means… Changing the global energy system Developing a least-cost technology portfolio

Source: Socolow & Pacala; Sci. Am., Sept Each De-carbonizing Wedge represents 25 billion tons of carbon avoided or reduced. 7 wedges needed to reach stabilize carbon emissions

Global economic mitigation potential for different sectors at different carbon prices IPCC, 2007

Agriculture A large proportion of the mitigation potential of agriculture (excluding bioenergy) arises from soil C sequestration, which has strong synergies with sustainable agriculture and generally reduces vulnerability to climate change. Agricultural practices collectively can make a significant contribution at low cost –By increasing soil carbon sinks, –By reducing GHG emissions, –By contributing biomass feedstocks for energy use IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group III, 2007

Soil Microbial Activity Soil Organic Matter (C) CO 2 Harvestable Yield Sunlight Climate Soils Management

No-Tillage Cropping Systems Conservation Agriculture Restores soil carbon Conserves moisture Saves fuel Saves labor Lowers machinery costs Reduces erosion Improved soil fertility Controls weed Planting on the best date Improves wildlife habitat

CCX voluntary offset market

Contracts 120,000 acres in KS, >2 million acres in the US CCX Carbon Offset Prices

Relative Yield, Economic, and Sequestration Characteristics for adopting NT continuous Corn, NE Kansas NT Mean Yield (bu/a) 86 CT87.7 ΔNet Return ($/a)26.50 Δ Soil Carbon (tons/a/y)0.465 Δ Total Emissions (tons/a/y) Δ Net Carbon (tons/a/y)0.481 Soil C Value ($/a/y) $4.00 value$2.76 Soil C Value ($/a/y) $20.00 value~$ % additional income Pendell et al., 2006

Soil Organic Carbon Microbial Activity Nutrient Cycling Soil Structure Soil Biodiversity Water Erosion & Availability Gaseous Emissions Plant Growth Yield Environmental Services Sustainability

Additional mitigation from agriculture Additional mitigation of 770 Mt CO 2 -eq. yr -1 could be achieved by 2030 by improved energy efficiency in agriculture Feed-stocks for bio-energy. Smith et al. (2007a)

Biofuel Production Concerns Changes in land use, and potential conversion of conservation lands to biomass production. Impact on soil carbon Changes in water needs, availability, and water quality impacts. Competition for grains and oilseeds and impacts on food and feed availability and prices. Lifecycle analyses and GHG/C accounting for biofuels production. Assessing co-benefits of biofuel production, such as soil quality, reduced erosion from marginal crop lands, and enhanced wildlife benefits.

So What is the Potential? Globally –It is estimated that soil has the potential to offset 30% of the annual CO 2 emissions United States –It is estimated that soil has the potential to offset 15% of the annual CO 2 emissions –Additional options for N 2 O and CH 4 The economic potential is ~30-50% of that value

Conclusions: Mitigation Agriculture has a significant role to play in climate mitigation Agriculture is cost competitive with mitigation options in other sectors Many mitigation options improve sustainability Bio-energy crops and improved energy efficiency in agriculture can contribute to further climate mitigation Agricultural mitigation should be part of a portfolio of mitigation measures to reduce emissions / increase sinks while new, low carbon energy technologies are developed.

Websites K-State Research and Extension Chuck Rice Phone: Cell: