A View from Asia on the Growing Fibre Demand by the Packaging Industries UK Corrugated Industry conference 2011 By R S Baxi

As President of the Paper Division I Bring Greetings & Best Wishes from BIR

GLOBAL PAPER PRODUCTION Based on 2009, global paper production was about 370 Million Tons : – Graphic Paper – 136 Million Tons ( 36.75%) – Board / Packaging – 190 Million Tons (51.36%) – Tissue Paper – 28 Million Tons (7.56%) – Other Paper – 16 million Tons (4.34%)

Paper Production from 3 major paper producing areas ( for 2009) : Asia – 157 Million Tonnes Europe – 101 Million Tonnes America – 84 Million Tonnes Others – 28 Million Tonnes

Recovered Fibre Collection, Consumption & Export from CEPI Countries (2010) MILLION TONS TOTAL RECOVERED FIBRE USED BY THE MILLS 49 TOTAL EXPORT TO ASIA9.117 EXPORTS TO OTHER REGIONS0.268 TOTAL COLLECTION % OF EXPORTS OF RECOVERED FIBRE WENT TO ASIA.

UK EXPORTS OF RECOVERED FIBRE FOR THE FIRST 2 QUARTERS 2011 TOTAL EXPORTS OF RECOVERED FIBRE WERE 2.29 MILLION TONNES OF WHICH : TYPES OF RECOVERED FIBRE VOLUME MIXED WASTE458,000 O.C.C1,236,000 NEWS/MAGS486,211 HIGH GRADE111,906

Top 10 Largest Economies by GDP in PPP terms: 2010 and 2020 GDP per capita, the value of all final goods and services produced within a nation per capita, within a given year. The GDP figures are derived from purchasing power parity (PPP) calculations by the International Monetary Fund, which have been updated according with the latest database released in October PPP is a method of measuring the relative purchasing power of different countries' currencies over the same types of goods and services, thus allowing a more accurate comparison of living standards. Total World GDP 2010 = $61,693,429

GDP and Paper Consumption per Capita for the Ten Largest Economies COUNTRY GDP Per Capita ($) PAPER PRODUCTION (MILLION) POPULATION (MILLION) PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION (KG/YEAR/PERSON) USA47, JAPAN42, FRANCE40, GERMANY40, UNITED KINGDOM36, ITALY33, RUSSIA10, BRAZIL10, CHINA4, , INDIA3, , MEXICO9, INDONESIA2, VIETNAM1,

Challenges of Global Trading GLOBAL TRADE LOGISTIC COSTS CURRENCY VOLATILITY GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK DEMAND DOMESTIC/IMPORT STOCK LEVEL QUAILTY CONTROL

Chinas Import Breakdown AmericaEuropeJapanOther AsiaOceaniaAfrica st quarter2,657,4701,934,247803,428370,086190,29005,955,521 2nd quarter2,309,9452,031,983893,276388,230188,4481,1075,812,990 3rd quarter2,517,4021,731,510800,090402,972182,5921,7295,636,295 4th quarter2,460,7851,433,049670,430373,539215,8112,0615,155,674 Total9,945,6017,130,7893,167,2241,534,828777,1414,89722,560, st quarter2,764,6041,893,676668,680361,709227,2521,6375,917,559 2nd quarter2,649,3532,239,518759,717412,057226,8972,1306,289,672 3rd quarter2,739,3091,893,837861,488373,410177, ,046,618 4th quarter2,540,9012,133,216675,259294,040252, ,896,089 Total10,694,1668,160,2472,965,1431,441,217884,1814,98424,149, st quarter2,657,4701,955,261892,194350,921196,786876,052,631 2nd quarter3,063,2092,817,6071,431,963385,380225, ,924,112 3rd quarter3,140,9132,647,252956,105359,317229, ,333,091 4th quarter2,891,0362,063,402837,404338,716200,9561,2556,332,768 Total11,752,6279,483,5214,117,6661,434,333852,7201,82227,642, st quarter2,869,7782,064,358877,998335,089218,4801,1846,366,887 2nd quarter2,658,7551,833,9441,011,863347,705226,1461,3786,079,791 3rd quarter1,721,6511,001,478505,674233,670139,55703,602,030 4th quarter2,871,3971,812,605824,481396,371232,520446,137,418 Total10,121,5826,712,3843,220,0161,312,835816,7032,60622,186,126

Comparison of Quarterly Recovered Fibre Imports into China ( )

Chinas Imports for 1 st & 2 nd Qtrs of 2011 & Continent 1 nd Qtr (MT) 2 st Qrtr (MT)1 nd Qtr (MT)2 st Qtr (MT) America2,869,778 2,658,755 3,103,259 3,227,922 Europe2,064,358 1,812,605 2,000,213 2,034,366 Asia1,213,087 1,359,568 1,222,227 1,202,552 Oceania218, , , ,163 Africa1,184 1, Total6,366,887 6,058,452 6,568,677 6,682,232

Breakdown of Europes Exports to China for 1 st Qtrs of 2011 & EU country1 st Qtr (MT)2 nd Qtr (MT)1 st Qtr (MT)2 nd Qtr (MT) U.K698,146728,100735,719758,662 Holland428,744451,419439,455471,396 Italy172,377181,366168,204154,891 Belgium171,05790,873166,293178,081 Germany170,636111,080115,401101,992 Spain158,399140,278116,57292,596 France111,97947,468119,398134,007 Ireland53,10130,70241,30952,330 Greece34,44811,85929,58230,999 Portugal20,4758,49426,26817,076 Norway16,96713,66618,13716,438 Slovenia7,6533,4731,6591,905 Poland5,0732,4953,2641,962 Sweden4,7754,1756,9877,863 Turkey3,9503,4738,54610,259 Russia1,9561, ,127 Total2,059,7391,830,8741,997,5432,032,584

CHINAS LEADING BOARD MILLS CompanyCap ( Million MT ) 1Nine Dragons Paper Holding10 2Lee & Man Paper Manufacturing Co Ltd4.18 3Zhejiang Jian Paper Co Ltd ( Shanghai Taison Group )1.55 4Zhejiang Jingxing Paper Co1.5 5China Sunshine Paper Holding Co Ltd1.1 6Fujian Liansheng Paper Co0.9 7Guangzhou Wanlida Paper Product0.7 8Anuhui Shanying Paper Co0.7 9Zheijang Rongcheng Paper Co0.7 10Shandong Chenming Paper Co0.6 11Wuxi Rongcheng Paper Co YFY Paper Manufacturing Zhongshan Yongfa Paper Co0.4 14Zhongshan Lianhe Hongxing Paper Co0.4 15Zhangjiagang Huaxing Paper Co0.4

INDIAS LEADING BOARD MILLS Paper MillCap (Million Tons) 1Century Pulp & Paper Ltd0.14 2NR Agarwal Industries Ltd0.13 3ITC Limited Rainbow Papers Ltd JK Papers Ltd Global Board Ltd Gayatrishakti Paper & Boards Ltd Cheema Papers Ltd Murli Industries Limited Dev Priya Papers Private Ltd0.017

Conclusion Global Populations is projected to grow by 2.8 billion in the next 38 years. This cause an impact on the demand of packaging paper. The emerging market economies mainly China & India, projects to grow fastest in both population and fibre demand.

Conclusion Collection programs being implemented in emerging markets will increase competition on quality of fibre, quality to become important. New regulations coming into force, EOW and others will effect collection and sorting systems.

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