{. AMERICAN OIL ENERGY INDEPENDENCE ………… IN THE REAL WORLD Dr. John Anthony Scire, PhD, 6 February 2013.

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AMERICAN OIL ENERGY INDEPENDENCE ………… IN THE REAL WORLD Dr. John Anthony Scire, PhD, 6 February 2013

THE OPTIMISTS PREDICT US WILL BE INDEPENDENT OF OUR RELIANCE ON IMPORTED OIL IN TEN YEARS (IF WE OPEN UP ALL OF OUR FEDERAL LANDS FOR DRILLING, INCREASE FRACKING, AND BEGIN TO EXPLOIT THE OIL SHALES IN THE GREEN RIVER FORMATION.)

SO PEAK OIL IS A THING OF THE PAST????

REALLY?

A REALITY CHECK ON PEAK OIL PRODUCTION

THE WORLD PEAK OF OIL PRODUCTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE BEYOND 2040 ….. BUT

WHO CARES ?? THE US WILL NOT EXCEED ITS 1970 PEAK FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE

THE ENERGY INFORMATION AGENCY OF THE US DOE PREDICTS U.S. tight oil production leads a growth in domestic production of 2.6 million barrels per day between 2008 and 2019 U.S. crude oil production million barrels per day Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release 9 Adam Sieminski January 5, 2013 Tight oil Alaska Other lower 48 onshore Lower 48 offshore ProjectionsHistory 2011

BP says US still imports 35% in 2030 DOE says US still imports 37% in 2040 IEA says US still imports 16% by (but all of it from the Western Hemisphere, mostly from Canada ) A REALITY CHECK ON IMPORTS

AND WE WILL STILL IMPORT UP TO 37% OF OUR LIQUID FUELS in 2040 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release

BUT HOW IMPORTANT IS OIL TO OUR ECONOMY???

PETROLEUM IS ONLY 35.28% OF TOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION BUT IN EXCESS OF 90% OF TRANSPORTATIONS ENERGY USE HOW IMPORTANT IS OIL TO THE AMERICAN ECONOMY?

BUT THE FRACKING GAS WILL SAVE US!!!

SHALE GAS DOUBLES GAS PRODUCTION BY 2040 U.S. dry natural gas production in trillions of cubic feet Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Associated with oil Coalbed methane Tight gas Shale gas Alaska Non-associated onshore Non-associated offshore ProjectionsHistory 2011

BUT CONSUMPTION IS GOING UP AND LNG EXPORTS WILL GO UP SOON

NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION BY TRANSPORTATION QUADRILLION BTUs Note: Gas to liquids includes heat, power, and losses. Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Pipeline fuel Light-duty vehicles 2011 HistoryProjections 95% 3% 1% 28% 38% 3% 31% 1% Buses Freight trucks Gas to liquids

In 2005, 2,085 gigawatt hours per day In 2012, 3,358 gigawatt hours per day This is a growth in Electricity Generation Use of 47% IN JUST 7 YEARS NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION BY ELECTRICITY GENERATION

NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION BY EXPORTATION U.S. natural gas exports trillion cubic feet Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release 19 Alaska LNG exports Exports to Mexico Exports to Canada Lower 48 LNG exports

AND THEN PRICES GO UP TO WORLD MARKET PRICES WHICH ARE 5 TO 9 TIMES HIGHER THAN THE US

NATURAL GAS WILL NOT MAKE US ENERGY INDEPENDENT BUT IT WILL …… CONCLUSION:

TIME TO REDUCE OIL ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY INCREASING EFFICIENCY AND ALTERNATIVES....BUY US TIME….

BECAUSE EVEN THOUGH OUR DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION HAS DECLINED AND WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE

WORLD DEMAND FOR OIL WILL GO FROM 85 MBD TODAY TO OVER 103 MBD BY % OF THAT GROWTH WILL BE FROM NON-OECD COUNTRIES. WORLD DEMAND WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY

1. OPECS SHARE OF PRODUCTION GOES UP TO 45% (BP/IEA) 2. US WILL HAVE TO PAY WORLD PRICES …………AND…………. 3. NET IMPORT BILLS WILL NOT GO DOWN (OPEC will still have pricing power) SOOOOOOOOOO SOOOOOOOOOO AND WORLD PRICES WILL NOT DECLINE

NO TOTAL INDEPENDENCE BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS…….

NO NEED TO IMPORT ANY OIL FROM THE MIDEAST BY 2020

SO LETS DISCUSS THE NATIONAL SECURITY POSSIBILITIS

-CENTCOM ROLE DIMINISHES VIS- À-VIS THE OTHER COMS -ISRAELS IMPORTANCE DIMINISHES -IRANS IMPORTANCE DIMINISHES -THE TRADE DEFICITS DRAIN ON AMERICAN CAPITAL DIMINISHES

MORE SECURITY POSSIBILITIES -OIL DISRPUTIONS WORLDWIDE DUE TO DEMAND OR SUPPLY PROBLEMS WILL NOT CRUSH THE US ECONOMY -MORE SELECTIVITY IN SOURCING OIL WHEN SECURITY IMPLICATIONS ARISE -RISING IMPORTANCE OF WESTERN HEMISPHERE -COMPETION WITH CHINA FOR RESOURCES MAY ESCALATE

MORE SECURITY CONSIDERATIONS -CHINAS DEPENDENCY RISES TO 80% MOST OF WHICH WILL COME FROM THE MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA -EURO DEPENDENCE ON RUSSIAN GAS DIMINISHES AS US LNG EXPORTS INCREASE -JAPANESE DEPENDENCE ON IMPORTED LNG INCREASES AS NUCLEAR DECLINES