Climate Services: The temperature is going up but so are the opportunities! John F. Henz, CCM HDR Engineering, Inc. 303 East 17 th Avenue, Suite 700 Denver Colorado

John F. Henz: roots BS Meteorology, U Wisc 4 yrs in Air Weather Service MS Atmospheric Science, CSU Geophysical R&D Corp GRD Weather Center CCM #270 Henz Kelly & Associates Henz Meteorological Services (HMS) HDR Engineering, Inc of Omaha NE purchased HMS Nov HDR is a top twenty Architect & Engineering firm with over 5,500 owner- employees in 42 states and over 140 offices. Near $1B in Nat. Tech Advisor, Hydro-Meteorology

Increased awareness of climate change creates public and business needs Businesses want input for use in strategic planning. Cities/Counties/States are concerned with aging infra-structure impacts. Building design concerned with green fingerprint and sustainability. Engineers/architects grappling with changing design baselines.

The weather enterprise Private sector Ideal Solution Government sector Academic

So what should we do? Reality: Climate services are a driving force in the market place.

Meteorology-Engineering need each other Many atmospheric science/meteorology departments co-located with engineering schools and/or environmental/natural resource departments. In school, do the same problem sets and in business solve the same problems = commonalities exist. New data sets provide the opportunities for meteorologists to quantitatively solve problems. Credentials count: PE, CCM, CFM, etc. We need analytical meteorologists!

Opportunities abound New data sets and bases: WSR-88D, surface mesonets, profilers, ACARS, new satellites. Strong public awareness of climate change, global warming and natural hazards (2005 hurricane season). A myriad of problems to be solved and more coming onboard everyday.

Climate change has heightened interest in extreme weather Power utilities have to deal with climate change, related costs and carbon issues. Water suppliers concerned with changes in precipitation, runoff amount and timing and drought frequency, especially in western half of USA. Insurance companies are concerned with increased risk associated of severe weather. Aging infra-structure is at risk from increased flood and rain threats. Coastal areas want to plan for rising ocean levels. Dam safety agencies concerned with extreme precipitation event threats. some examples

A weather enterprise success Jan 1,1997 Reno-Sparks NV hit by devastating flood that was under- forecast. NO flood response plan existed. Damage in $100Ms, airport closed a week, warehouse district a mess, fatalities and injuries. In 2003/4 HDR contracted by COE and Washoe County WR to develop a flood response plan and develop co- operative response. NWS CNRFC developed special aids. 2003/04 Reno-Sparks NV FRP developed based on 1997 flood. Dec31/Jan Reno/Sparks hit by déjà vu flood. Order of magnitude less damage, no fatalities, airport stayed open!

Climatic Indices – powerful tools Multi-variate ENSO Index: Energy transport, cloudiness, winds, SST in tropical Pacific (MEI, SOI) PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) – Primary North- South difference in sea temperature in Pacific Ocean is varying on shorter time scales –why? NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) – linked to changes in sea surface temperature conditions and heat transport in the Atlantic Ocean. AMO (Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation) a harbinger of multi-year changes MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) Sends pulses of energy into sub-tropical jet stream.

Crucial climate information for strategic decision-making SOI PDO MEI NAO AMO PNA MJO

Flathead Reservoir, MT Drought Management Plan ( ) Balance water needs. Accurate identification of low flow/flood years. Maintain credibility with public and agencies. Make sure it works! Climate change concerns $ 100M Recreation Jun-Sep Hydro-Power Winter Minimum in-stream flows Flood Control Pool Spr.

Normal vs. El Nino vs. La Nina Basin Precipitation Regime Oct-Dec Inches (+/- avg.) Oct-Mar Inches (+/- avg.) La Nina = Wet 6.82 (+1.49) (+2.29) Normal El Nino = Dry 4.85 (-0.48) 8.52 (-1.81) Driest 10 yrs = drought 3.25 (-2.08) 6.21 (-4.12)

NWS/NRCS WY Forecast or Runoff volume

WSR-88D – a climate tool too! Historical WSR-88D reflectivity, base velocity, QPEs,, etc used in storm re- construction for insurance, design and basin calibration studies. Observations used to develop enhanced spatial and temporal precipitation distributions for design storm, flood plain delineation and extreme precipitation event documentation for dam safety.

The October weather pattern was more July than October. Storms formed along and north of the stationary front repeatedly from ~3PM to 3AM. Train-echo effect Flooding rains of 4-7 in 6 hrs 72-80F 60-70F

Minneapolis, MN flood re- construction/basin calibration Our basin is located in the heavy rain track indicated by the NWS storm total rainfall estimate. The NWS QPE values produced a 40-60% under- estimate from observed rainfall and poor XP-SWM rainfall-runoff model output!

WSR-88D Atmosphere-truthed Z-R. GIS-based Atmosphere-truthed Z- R, i.e. QPF-based Z-R. GIS-based radar and basin data. XP-SWM rainfall-runoff model: ~90%+ correlation. ACARS detected LLJ = enhanced rainfall for 75 min. When input into the HDR Z-R runoff correlations improved percent. Used to define flood- plains and evacuation.

October 4/5, 2005 SWWD WSR-88D Z-based Temporal Rain Distribution vs. 100-yr SCS Type II used for design Project has multi-million $ implications

HDR Energy clients Concerns with coal-fired power plant operations. Needs for expanded wind power generation and wind prediction. Insights on working within the carbon exchange system. Exploring water needs for ethanol plant development.

HDR Architecture clients Development of green buildings Community planners are interested in ways to reduce urban heat islands and associated energy consumption. Community sustainability has been embraced. Water quality and waste recycling are major issues with only partial solutions.

Solutions based on climate data and imaginative applications A goal without a plan is a dream

What do engineers want? Data and information for problem solution. Access to basic data and information. Limited rhetoric; just the facts, please! More quantitative information on climate impacts on water supply, carbon exchange opportunities and global to micro-climate cause-effect relationships.. More knowledgeable meteorologists and climatologists within companies to act as trusted problem solvers for clients.

The weather enterprise solution Private sector: client problem interface Providing solutions to climate change Government sector: data and information Academic sector: Training and research

Bottom line: What a wonderful time to be a meteorologist! Opportunities are real – climate change and real-world use of new data sets. The next ten years should be another golden age for meteorology!

QUESTIONS & ANSWERS HDR Engineering, Inc. 303 East 17 th St, Suite 700 Denver, Colorado Engineering, Consulting and Architectural Firm –5,500+ employees –Architectural: hospitals, federal, others –Transportation: bridges, roads, rail –Water resources –Meteorology –Energy –Community Planning & Urban Design –Construction Services –Environmental