NS4540 Winter Term 2018 Popular Opinion 11-2017 Oxford Analytica Latin America: Democracy may lose as delivery fails, November 28, 2017

Overview Recent surveys suggest Latin America a region in which economic progress has been accompanied by increasing skepticism about the Performance and Advantages Of democracy as a system of government Rather than new trends – shows an acceleration of existing trends particularly regarding Democracy and Approval of governments

Economic Background I Since the 2008-09 financial crisis, Latinobarometro’s indicators of subjective economic well-being have generally shown substantial improvement At 44%the percentage of households whose income does not adequately cover their needs is down from 55% in 2009. But reaches 78% in Venezuela and 60% in Dominican Republic At 41% fear of job loss is down from over 60% pre-crisis

Economic Background II 45% now identify as lower-class Down from 58% in 2013 Increase from 36% to 42% for middle class However over half of the population identifies as lower class in Brazil Venezuela, El Salvador, Chile and Nicaragua Presence of Chile, the region’s highest per-capita income country indicates political and social factors – a sense of inclusion – also weigh heavily in this self-classification Also present in Bolivia with one of the lowest per capita incomes where 53% consider themselves middle-class

Economic Background III Around the region impatience for faster economic progress Only 25% think country is progressing -- ranging from Brazil 6% Bolivia 49% and Nicaragua 58% 35% identify economic problems as their country’s principle problem followed by Crime 20% Corruption 10% But with wide variations across countries Impatience due to slow progress in reducing income inequity For 75% of region’s inhabitants their country’s leading conflict is between rich and poor

Political Trends I Surveys show abundant evidence of growing skepticism about democracy View that democracy is preferable to any other form of government has dropped to 53% Down from 61% in 2010 and 63% in 1997 Among major countries were it is the lowest are Mexico 38%, down from 48% in 2016 Brazil 43% but up from 32% in 2016 Highest in Venezuela 78% Uruguay 70% Ecuador 69%, and Argentina 67%

Political Trends II Medium commitment to democracy in Latin America is only 19% compared to 23% globally Willingness to consider non-democratic options reaches 24% compared to 13% worldwide Peru and Mexico highest at 28% and 27% respectively Support for possible military government highest among those with least education 55% in Peru and 45% in Brazil Suggests resolution of economic concerns is gaining urgency

Political Trends III Satisfaction with democracy Has declined for four consecutive years to 30%, down from 39% in 2013. Lowest figures include Brazil 13% Peru 16% Colombia 17% and Mexico 18% By comparison 56% EU citizens were satisfied

Political Trends IV Low satisfaction related to perception of government for the few – rose from 61% in 2009 to 75% in 2017. Reached 97% Brazil 90% in Mexico Highest where the perception of government for the few is also the least prevalent Nicaragua 67& Ecuador 66% and Bolivia 57%

Political Trends V Trust in political institutions – generally declined in recent years most notably in the case of government Parliament and Political parties For parliament 22% down from 34% in 2009 Political parties 15% down from 24% in 2009 Trust in political parties only 7% Brazil 9% Mexico Even in Chile relatively free from corruption scandals only 14% Suggest populist outsiders more of a chance in winning upcoming elections in 2018

Venezuelan Paradox I In addition to having the largest percentage of households with difficulties in covering their needs Venezuela is a country were most do not have enough to eat. After Brazil it is also where the largest percentage identify as lower-class Still approval of government increased from 20% in 2016 to 32% in 2017 -- just below regional average of 36% Trust in government 31% is significantly above the regional average of 25%

Venezuelan Paradox II Satisfaction with democracy is low 13% down from 24% in 2016 and 49% in 2010 But support for democracy is 78% the highest in the region. However democratic satisfaction is far higher among those who perceive Venezuela’s economic situation good, 72% than those who see it as bad 14% The highest differential in Latin America Results suggest governments defined as left-of-center proving more successful at generating a sense of inclusiveness and participation even absence good economic governance.

Assessment Rather than a challenge to democracy itself, key demand seems to be for more and better democracy in form of increased participation Combined with a perception that political parties are governing in the interests of the few – points to emergence of new political movements and more fragile governability.