Overview: Benefit Analysis in CAFE Paul Watkiss Mike Holland AEA Technology Environment EMRC

Project Overview Multi-disciplinary team of experts from across Europe Phase 1 Development and baseline Phase 2 Scenarios Methodology outline Dec 2003 Revised methodology March 2004 Draft final methodology Late June 2004 Peer Review July-August 2004 Consultation workshop Dec. 2003 Comments Consultation workshop July 5th Final methodology September 2004 Feedback into scenarios Autumn 2004 Final Scenarios Apr 2005 Completion June 2005 Final baseline analysis

Conceptional Approach: Impact Pathway EMISSIONS tonnes/year of SO 2 DISPERSION TREMOVE, EMEP, RAINS, etc. Increase in ambient concentrations e.g. ppb SO for all affected regions 2 Stock at risk e.g. inventory building materials IMPACT CONCENTRATION IMPACT Using exposure-response curves, e.g. change in building erosion Benefits Model COST Damage costs, WTP estimates

Which Benefits? Traditionally quantified and monetised Health (mortality and morbidity) Building materials Crops Ecosystems Cultural Heritage Other (visibility) - possible impact pathway/MCA Ancillary (greenhouse gas emissions) Social (employment, deprivation/inequality) Economic (employment/growth) Traditionally quantified and monetised impact pathway approach Traditionally quantified not monetised - Possible valuation/MCA Traditionally outside analysis - Separate analysis - MCA

Phase 1 RAINS ‘CAFE’ Benefits model (GIS) Automated Impact Pathway pollutants SO2, NOX, PM10, VOC, ammonia each cell, 50 * 50 km2 grid across Europe ‘CAFE’ Benefits model (GIS) Agreed valuation endpoint list (health, buildings, crops, etc) Stock at Risk (population, buildings, crops, etc) Agreed dose-response list Automated Impact Pathway Analysis Additional components analysis MCA component (e.g. cultural buildings, ecosystems?) GEM Macro-economic model (country by country) Social analysis Phase 1

Phase 2