Hans von Storch Geesthacht, Hamburg and Qingdao

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Grüne Bildungswerkstatt Tirol, February 2008 Page 1 Anthropogenic climate change, scenarios and acceptance Hans von Storch Institute for Coastal.
Advertisements

1 Regional climate services – the case of Hamburg and the Elbe estuary Hans von Storch Institut of Coastal Research, Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht Germany.
Greenhouse Gases and Climate Change: Global Changes and Local Impacts Anthony J. Broccoli Director, Center for Environmental Prediction Department of Environmental.
Prioritized New Research Initiative on Climate Change in Japan - under a new phase of the Science and Technology Basic Plan – Hiroki Kondo Special Advisor.
Klimadialog – Herausforderung Skeptiker und andere Wissensansprüche Hans von Storch Institut für Küstenforschung, Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht und KlimaCampus,
Director-General, The Energy and Resources Institute Chairman, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Climate Science for Latin America: Vulnerability.
Chapter 15: Air, Weather, and Climate The Atmosphere Is A Complex System Absorbed solar energy warms our world – Mostly Stored in the Oceans The.
What role does the Ocean play in Global Climate Change?
Essential Principles Challenge
Cape Town, 27. August 2009 Page 1 Science and ethics of climate scientists Hans von Storch Institute of Coastal Research, GKSS Research Center Geesthacht.
1 Issues of regional climate service H. von Storch*, F. Zwiers, I. Meinke, C. Devis and W. Krauss *Institute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht,
Hans von Storch GKSS, Helmholtz Association HGF KlimaCampus, Hamburg Climate science, IPCC, postnormality and the crisis of trust 28 January 2011, Lisboa.
14 May 2015, København, side event of ECCA The BACC-II report -process, and -Summary of results Hans von Storch Co-chair of BACC-II 14 May 2015, København,
10 IMSC, August 2007, Beijing Page 1 Consistency of observed trends in northern Europe with regional climate change projections Jonas Bhend 1 and.
Observed Global Climate Change. Review of last lecture Air pollution. 2 categories 6 types of major pollutants: particulates, carbon oxides, sulfur dioxides,
EIN (European Ideas Network) event at the Madrid EPP convention, Madrid, 8 February 2008 Page 1 Anthropogenic climate change, scenarios and acceptance.
Assessment of past and expected future regional climate change in the Baltic Sea Region Speaker: Hans von Storch GKSS Research Centre, Germany.
Global warming and Sea Level Rise: Best estimates by 2100 John King
Expected futures as a guide for interpreting the present Hans von Storch and Armineh Barkhordarian Institute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht.
Können wir uns die nordeuropäischen Trends der letzten Jahrzehnte erklären? Hans von Storch and Armineh Barkhordarian Institute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz.
Hans von Storch GKSS, Helmholtz Association HGF KlimaCampus, Hamburg Status: Climate science, IPCC, postnormality and the crisis of trust 22 April 2010,
1 Keynote: Knowledge generation vs. decision processes - the issue of regional climate service Hans von Storch Institute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz.
Engineering Adaptation Strategies and Infrastructure Design Requirements to Deal with Climate Uncertainty – Uncertainty, Certainty (and the Case of Coastal.
Climate Research – a type of physics? Hans von Storch Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht, Institute of Coastal Research, Geesthacht CLISAP Klimacampus, Hamburg.
1 Regional climate service in a postnormal context Hans von Storch Institute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht, KlimaCampus, University.
1 Developing science – stakeholder interactions at the Institute of Coastal Hans von Storch Institute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz Zentrum.
Prof. Gerbrand Komen (ex-) Director Climate Research KNMI 20 November 2008 KNGMG Conference Climate change facts - uncertainties - myths.
Global Climate Change  Created as part of National Science Foundation ITEST Grant #  Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations.
Climate Change Challenges and Problems Introductory statement Hans von Storch - manuscript available - Prague, 7 October 2014.
Elements of regional climate science- society interaction in Germany Hans von Storch Institut für Küstenforschung, GKSS Forschungszentrum Geesthacht clisap-Exzellenzzentrum,
1 Climate research under post- normal conditions Hans von Storch Institute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht,
1 Climate services under post- normal conditions Hans von Storch Institute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht, KlimaCampus, University of.
Climate Change Information Seminar Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) – the relevance to FAO’s activities Claudia.
IPCC: needs and options Roles played in the IPCC assessment processes TAR: lead author WG I AR5: lead author in WG II Participation at some expert workshops,
BACC - Assessment of past and expected future regional climate change in the Baltic Sea Region Speaker: Hans von Storch GKSS Research Centre, Germany Hamburg,
1 Who is this? Hans von Storch (born 1949) Director of Institute for Coastal Research, GKSS Research Center, near Hamburg, Professor at the Meteorological.
1 Climate services under post- normal conditions Hans von Storch Institute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht, KlimaCampus, University of.
Chapter Meeting Ecological Challenges Key Questions: 1)How does the average ecological footprint in America compare to the world’s average?
1 Hans von Storch Geesthacht, Hamburg, 青岛 23 May 2016, Baltic Earth Conference, Nida Conceptual challenges of climate servicing.
Chapter 19 Global Change. the skeptic’s position on climate change the science isn’t valid the problem is naturally occurring, not man-made changing our.
Climate Change in Montana: A Community Development Perspective
Assembled by Brenda Ekwurzel
Speaker: Hans von Storch GKSS Research Centre, Germany
Hans von Storch Climate researcher (in the field since 1971)
Chapter 9 How should governments in Canada respond to political and economic issues?
Climate Change in Scotland / UK / N. Europe
Dynamical Models - Purposes and Limits
Democratic decision making and the role of climate science
Effects of Climate Change
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Hans von Storch and Insa Meinke
Introduction: Advanced study course on climate science
Climate Servicing – Limits and Obstacles
Regional climate services – the case of Hamburg and the Elbe estuary
The social construction of the coast: conflicting images and perceptions of the coast, and their implications for coastal science Hans von Storch Institute.
Meteorological Institute, Hamburg University, Hamburg, Germany
Hans von Storch, Institute of Coastal Research
Instruments for advising on regional climate change
Scientific tools for public-science interaction
Nutrient Cycles in Nature Ch. 3-3
Introduction: Advanced study course on climate science
The political dimension of climate science – CUDOS vs
Hans von Storch Institut für Küstenforschung, HZG und
The multiple instationarity – a challenge for implementing adaptation
Hans von Storch Director, Institute of Coastal Research, GKSS, Germany Professor, Meteorological Institute, Hamburg University, Hamburg Roles played in.
3-4 October Noordzeedagen, NIOZ, Texel
Perceptions, knowledge claims and managements of coasts
The temporal dimension of adaptation to changing climatic risks
Climate knowledge and the politics of climate change
Presentation transcript:

Hans von Storch Geesthacht, Hamburg and Qingdao Scientific and social constructions of climate change – What are you more interested in predicting: climate change policy or climate change? Hans von Storch Geesthacht, Hamburg and Qingdao 9. May 2019 - Forum der Europäischen Fracht und Logistikindustrie (F&L) / Weltwirtschaftsforum, Hamburg

Hans von Storch Climate researcher (in the field since 1971) Coastal climate (storms, storm surges, waves; North and Baltic Sea, North Atlantic, Yellow Sea); statistical analysis Director emeritus of the Institute of Coastal Research of the Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany Professor at Universität Hamburg and at the Ocean University of China Editor-in-chief of the Oxford University Press Research Encyclopedia on Climate Science Lead author of IPCC AR3 and AR5. Co-Chair of regional assessment reports Baltic Sea Catchment (BACC) and of Hamburg Metropolitan Region http://www.hvonstorch.de/klima/

Overview Knowledge as constructions Scientific construction of climate change Size of the climate problem Social constructions of climate change Climate policy – driven by the social constructions

Knowledge is constructed Knowledge is defined here as „ability to make sense“, and not an indication of knowing the „truth“. Knowledge is power, claims of knowledge are claims of power. There are various forms of knowledge about the same issue. Scientific knowledge is one type of knowledge. Scientific knowledge does not necessarily win public acceptance. Constructions are not arbitrary, but based on previously formulated explanations (theories), interpretations of earlier events and recent observations. Constructions are based on assumptions, which are consistent with cultural contexts and social preferences. Knowledge is scientific, if it is constructed using the scientific method, not by an acclamation of scientists. The scientific construction has been prepared by actors who adhere to the CUDOs norms – collective ownership by the scientific community, independent of the constructing persons, without external interests, and critically reviewed by the scientific community. Scientific constructions are consistent with the interpretation of other phenomena and all relevant observations.

Key finding of Working Group I of the IPCC. Temperatures rise almost everywhere, however with different speeds. Without a dominant contribution by greenhouse gases an explanation of this warming is not possible at this time.

The present scientific construction Within the scientific community there is consensus: There is a global warming, which is inconsistent with internal causes (detection) Thus, the warming needs an explanation by external causes. Only when greenhouse gases are considered a dominant driver, a consistent explanation can be found (attribution) The change manifests itself in the thermal regime including diminishing (Northern Hemisphere) sea-ice cover, in sea level rise and, plausibly, in more heavy rainfall events. Many details are uncertain, such as the speed of rise of global sea level and of temperature, the regional and local manifestations, and the co-effect of different “drivers” (say, greenhouse gases, aerosols, land use change incl. urban effects) This scientific construction of the anthropogenic climate change is broadly supported among climate scientists. It is documented by the collective efforts of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Size of the climate problem The atmospheric concentration of CO2 has grown from about 280 ppm in 1850 to 410 ppm – due to anthropogenic emissions. These concentrations are small compared to other constituents of air, but go with a significant impact on the thermal structure of the climate system. The concentration will begin to no longer grow only after all human emissions of carbon have come to an end.

Emissions and temperature increase The increase of global mean temperature is about proportional to the amount of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere, with about 2 10-5K per MtCO2 “budget concept”). IPCC, AR5, 2013 Present emissions in Germany: about 0.8 year. (UBA)

Scenarios of emissions which would allow meeting the 1.5 K goal. Policy Maker Summary of IPCC Report on Global warming of 1.5C Figueres, C., H.J. Schellnhuber, J. Rockström, A. Hobley, und S. Rahmstorf, 2017: Three years to safeguard our climate. Nature 546, 593pp

Climate change and stakeholders Climate change goes along with changes in the geophysical conditions, in changing hazards and opportunities. Particularly severe are the effects of rising sea level, the intensification of the water cycles and the loss of sea ice. Stakeholders are economies, political systems, and the general public. Political deciders, in consistence with the general public, have decided that climate change must be limited to a 1.5o level (Paris accord). Even if such an ambitious goal is reached, a number of visible changes in the geophysical system will emerge, and societies and ecosystems will need to adapt. If this goal is not reached, more damages must be responded to.

Climate science in global societies Global environment and society model (Hasselmann, ca. 1990) Perceived environment and society model (von Storch, ca. 1992)

Knowledge competition: - The present scientific construction - Dominant present cultural construction: Climate catastrophe - Cultural constructions: Nature strikes back - Skeptics - Outdated scientific constructions

Knowledge competition Dominant present cultural construction: Climate catastrophe According to this construction, climate is changing because of human activities. The weather is less reliable than in earlier times; the seasons are unsteady, storms more violent. Climatic extremes take on catastrophic, never seen dimensions. The factors, leading to this change, are related to „our greed and stupidity“. Sometimes, justice is a significant mechanism, sometimes the revenge of nature for human environmental sins. Also, the changes are considered to reflect good‘s wrath. This climate catastrophe may be averted by keeping the change within the 2o limit. Reaching this goal depends crucially on the engagement of the individuals (abstinence of air travel, usage of bikes, vegetarian food; good example for other people.)

Knowledge competition Outdated scientific constructions Climatic determinism – climate as a key factor determining the development and fall of civilizations, the level of criminal activity, for the superiority of certain world regions, for societal violence, ability to learn and usage of libraries. This theory was used as a legitimation of colonialism, and is implicit in scenarios of contemporary climate change scenarios. Humans have to live in „harmony“ with „their“ climate; any disturbance of this balance will lead to serious repercussions in the life of people and the success of civilizations. Map of „mental energy“ conditioned by climatic conditions Distribution of civilizations in 1916, according to expert opinions. Stehr, N., and H. von Storch, 1999: An anatomy of climate determinism. In: H. Kaupen-Haas (Ed.): Wissenschaftlicher Rassismus - Analysen einer Kontinuität in den Human- und Naturwissenschaften. Campus-Verlag Frankfurt.a.M. - New York (1999), 137-185, ISBN 3-593-36228-7 Ellsworth Huntington,ca. 1917

Knowledge market The science-policy/public interaction is not an issue of „knowledge speaks to power“. The problem is not that the public is stupid or uneducated. A problem is that the scientific knowledge is confronted on the „explanation marked“ with other forms of knowledge (pre-scientific, outdated, traditional, morphed by different interests). Scientific knowledge does not necessarily “win” this competition. A problem is that science is presented as if there were a well-defined problem, which needs one specific “solution”. The social process „science“ is influenced by these other knowledge forms. 17

Take home: Climate science and knowledge Climate science offers robust answers to the key questions on climate change, namely on the reality of warming, the presence of external causes, and attribution of greenhouse gases to be the dominant cause of the change, and the possibility to limit climate change by reducing or out-phasing CO2 emissions. Other questions are still contested. Climate science supports the political process of the formation of a democratic will. The results of this political process, however, is a matter of social negotiation processes. Climate science is in a “post-normal” state, where the political utility of scientific knowledge is more important that methodical rigor, and where political actors claim that their „good“ case is coercively supported by science. There is a plethora of knowledge claims, which influence the understanding and deciding by stakeholders, media and public. The scientifically constructed knowledge does not necessarily win this competition.

Main conclusion The political decision processes are mostly steered by social constructions of climate change, social preferences and wishful thinking – but only loosely connected to the scientific (de)construction of ongoing and expected geophysical change. Thus, political decisions are not determined by scientific knowledge about ongoing climate change, but other social factors are decisive. Changing political wills result in the formation of regulations (such as banning certain fuels) and preferences, with significant consequences for economic actors. Some geophysical changes may be of direct impact for your industry, such as road conditions or ice-free passages – and will require responses for exploiting beneficial change and adapting to adverse conditions.