1. Hans von Storch and Insa Meinke
Developing the concept of regional climate service - 10 years of coastal applications
Hans von Storch and Insa Meinke
Institute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany
15 min
12 May 2015, ECCA, København

2. A challenge: Different perceptions among scientists and the public
Ratter, Philipp, von Storch, 2012: Between Hype and Decline – Recent Trends in Public Perception of Climate Change, Environ. Sci. & Pol. 18 (2012) 3-8
Bray, D., 2010: The scientific consensus of climate change revisited. Env. Sci. Pol. 13: 340 – 350

3. Regional administrators in German Baltic Sea coastal regions.
Another challenge: Stakeholder do hardly interlink directly with climate scientists
How strongly do you employ the following sources of information, for deciding about issues related to climate adaptation?
Regional administrators in German Baltic Sea coastal regions.
Bray, 2011, pers. comm.

4. Climate Change: Constructions
Climate change is a „constructed“ issue. People hardly experience „climate change“. One construction is scientific, i.e., an „objective“ analysis of observations and interpretation by theories.
The other construction is cultural, in particular maintained and transformed by the public media.
Climate science is in a post-normal phase (where interest-led utility is a significant driver, and less so “normal” curiosity)
von Storch, H., 2009: Climate Research and Policy Advice: Scientific and Cultural Constructions of Knowledge. Env. Science Pol. 12,

5. Two different construction of „climate change“ – scientific and cultural – which is more powerful?
Cultural: „Klimakatastrophe“
Scientific: man-made change is real, can be mitigated to some extent but not completely avoided
Temperature
Lund and Stockholm
Storms 5

6. The problem is not that the public is stupid or uneducated.
Knowledge market
The science-policy/public interaction is not an issue of the linear model of „knowledge speaks to power“.
The problem is not that the public is stupid or uneducated.
Science has failed to respond to legitimate public questions and has instead requested. “Trust us, we are scientists”.
The problem is that the scientific knowledge is confronted on the „explanation market“ with other forms of knowledge. Scientific knowledge does not necessarily “win” this competition.
Non-sustainable claims-making by climate change (stealth) advocates to the public has lead to fatigue. Overselling goes with loss of “capital” of science, namely public trust. 6

7. The Institute of Coastal Research (IfK) of HZG was confronted with knowledge needs on the side of decision takers (administration, companies) and the regional public – concerning coastal climate issues (mostly storm surges, storms, waves).
The effort for transferring knowledge is challenged by:.
Knowledge is capacity to understand and act, is not access to information.
The science-policy/public interaction is not an issue of the linear model of demand & supply. The „empty vessel“-model of knowledge transfer is flawed.
Scientific(ally constructed) knowledge does not necessarily “win” the competition with alternative knowledge systems.
As a consequence, we built a cooperation with social scientists, set up the dialogue platform „Norddeutsches Klimabüro“ in 2006, established Mini-IPCC reports for mapping the available scientifically legitimate knowledge about regional climate, and developed suitable information provision systems.

8. Regional climate service
An institution set up to enable communication between science and stakeholders
that is: making sure that science understands the questions and concerns of a variety of stakeholders
that is: making sure that the stakeholders understand the scientific assessments and their limits.
Provision of stakeholders with relevant knowledge, information and data about regional climate change, its perspectives and probable causes

9. Regional climate service comprises …
Building a dialogue with public and deciders
Dealing with the issues of
present change (consistency with scenarios) - perspectives (projections vs. predictions) - reality of culturally constructed knowledge about climate, climate change and climate impact
confusion because of differently used terminology - discrimination between legitimate scientific knowledge and politically motivated knowledge claims - post-normal conditioning of climate research
Provision of - robust (homogeneous) data - robust knowledge about recent, ongoing and possible future climate change.
von Storch, H. and I. Meinke, 2008: Regional climate offices and regional assessment reports needed. Nature geosciences 1 (2), 78

10. Determining social reality: the Hamburg survey since 2008
Every spring since 2008, the survey the company FORSA is tasked to telephone-survey about 500 people in Hamburg about their opinions about climate and climate change.
Climate change is considered a relevant issue – when directly asked if so. Otherwise it is not a topic among the 10 most significant issues.
Attention and concern varies, without systematic changes.
Storm surges are considered the most important risks in Hamburg.
Ratter, Phillip, ongoing work; Ratter, Philipp, von Storch, 2012: Between Hype and Decline – Recent Trends in Public Perception of Climate Change, Environ. Sci. & Pol. 18 (2012) 3-8

11. Determining social reality: the confusion about „Projections and predictions“
The IPCC provides the following operational definitions : “A projection is a potential future evolution …” and “A climate prediction or climate forecast is the result of an attempt to produce an estimate of the actual evolution of the climate in the future …”
But in practice these terms are mixed up. Bray and von Storch (2009) find that
about 29% of climate scientists call “most probable developments” projections,
while about 20% “possible developments” are labeled “predictions”.
Bray, D., and H. von Storch, 2009: 'Prediction' or 'Projection'? The nomenclature of climate science. Sci. Comm. 30,

12. Consistency of recent regional change: Baltic Sea Region
Observed CRU, EOBS ( )
Projected GS signal, A1B scenario
10 simulations (ENSEMBLES)
Observed and projected temperature trends ( ) The observed trends are beyond the range of natural variability. In DJA and MAM the change may be explained with GHG alone; in JJA and SON other causes are also needed.
Red bars – natural variability – for detection of a non-natural cause
Black bar – uncertainty of scenarios – for consistency of recent trend with cause described in scenarios

13. Consistency of recent local change: Storm surges in Hamburg
Difference betwenn peak heights of storm surges in Cuxhaven and Hamburg
Main cause for recently elevated storm surges in Hamburg is the modification of the river Elbe – (coastal defense and shipping channel deepening) and less so because of changing storms or sea level.
von Storch, H. and K. Woth, 2008: Storm surges, perspectives and options. Sustainability Science 3, 33-44

14. Talk: Providing information – enabling knowledge (by Insa Meinke)
Experience from the Northern German Climate IFK / HZG and KlimaCampus HH
May (tomorrow) – Wednesday 9:10 bis 9:30
Topic: Climate services and communication
Session: Curating climate impact information and adaptation know-how for local adaptation planning – suitable instruments, formats and media
Room 10
Science - stakeholder dialogue in Northern Germany since 2006
About 1200 registered users from various stakeholder groups
Development of decision relevant information products
Or / and visit:
Insa Meinke•

15. Assessments of knowledge about regional climate change - for the recent past (200 years), for present change and possible future change - consensus of what is scientifically documented - documentation of contested issues. for + Baltic Sea (BACC) – BACC 1 done in 2008, BACC 2 on Thursday at ECCA Summary by Marcus Reckermann 8:30-8:45 in Room Auditorium 12 Presentation and Discussion 13:15-13:45 in Auditorium Hamburg region (published November 2010, #2 in about 2017) + North Sea (in final phase)
Reckermann, M., H.-J. Isemer and H. von Storch, 2008: Climate Change Assessment for the Baltic Sea Basin. EOS Trans. Amer. Geophys. U.,

16. Tools for regional climate servicing homogeneous data sets of past and future change
The CoastDat data set:
Model generated data sets
Long (60 years) and high-resolution reconstructions of recent offshore and coastal conditions mainly in terms of wind, storms, waves, surges and currents and other variables in N Europe
Scenarios (100 years) of possible consistent futures of coastal and offshore conditions.
extensions – ecological variables and other regions: Baltic Sea, Bo Hai, Yellow Sea, Lena catchment
Clients:
Governmental: various coastal agencies dealing with coastal defense and coastal traffic
Companies: assessments of risks (ship and offshore building and operations) and opportunities (wind energy)
General public / media: explanations of causes of change; perspectives and options of change
GKSS in Geesthacht

17. Take home: knowledge about climate
Climate change is a „constructed“ issue. People hardly experience „climate change“.
One construction is scientific, i.e. an „objective“ analysis of observations and interpretation by theories.
The other construction is cultural, in particular maintained and transformed by the public media.
Climate science operates in a post-normal situation, with a tendency of politicizing science, and scientizing politics. Cultural science need to support climate science to deal with this challenge.
The utility of scientific assertions in the political arena compete with their accuracy.

18. Regional climate service as mechanism for interacting with public and stakeholders
Climate Science needs to offer “Climate Service”, which includes the establishment of a dialogue with the public and stakeholders –recognizing the socio-cultural dynamics of the issue.
Climate service must take into account competing alternative knowledge claims.
Climate Service should adhere to the principle of sustainability – building trust by avoiding overselling and being explicit in spelling out contested issues.
Climate Service is more than providing data to mostly anonymous clients; direct interaction is in many cases needed.