1. Democratic decision making and the role of climate science
Hans von Storch
Hamburg, Geesthacht and 青岛
Köln, 6 November 2017, Kolloquium "Climate Change - Geoscientific Perspectives"

2. Hans VON STORCH Climate researcher (in the field since 1971)
Coastal climate (storms, storm surges, waves; North and Baltic Sea, North Atlantic, Yellow Sea); statistical analysis; detection and attribution of man-made climate change.
Director emeritus of the Institute of Coastal Research of the Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany
Professor at Universität Hamburg, and at the Ocean University of China, Qingdao
Member of the Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences, U Hamburg (postnormal science; knowledge competition about climate change; surveying opinions and views of climate sccientists)
Lead author of IPCC AR3 and AR5
Initiator of ”Mini-IPCC”-Reports for the Baltic Sea Region and the Metropolregion Hamburg
Hans VON STORCH

3. Headline statements from the AR5 Summary for Policymakers
Headline statements are the overarching highlighted conclusions of the approved Summary for Policymakers which, taken together, provide a concise narrative. The four statements in boxes here are those summarizing the assessment in the Summary for Policymakers, sections 1-4. Here, for the sake of brevity, only 2 of a total of four transparencies.
IPCC Secretariat
c/o WMO • 7bis, Avenue de la Paix • C.P • 1211 Geneva 2 • Switzerland •
5 November 2014

5. Key assertions of the IPCC Report:
Air (and sea surface) temperature rises almost verywhere, but with different speed.
Without including CO2 as a dominant driver the temperature rise of the past century an not be explained.

7. George Philander’s Questions
Science is organized skepticism, a strange religion that demands of its congregation a firm commitment to the continual testing of all observational and theoretical results. The tests permit no compromises, are not democratic – if 99% of all scientists are in agreement, then they are not necessarily right -- and produce results that, in the long run, are objective, independent of ethnicity, race, gender, religion, values etc.
Science produces very impressive results that are changing our daily lives, but nonetheless has severe limitations: it is mute on ethical issues. … Science tells us how things work, but not how to live our lives. We learn about science from texts on fluid dynamics and quantum mechanics, but for guidance on how to live our lives we read political manifestoes, poems, … etc.
George Philander, 12 December 2017, Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union, San Francisco

8. George Philander’s Questions
We scientists are burdened by having to live in two radically different worlds. Compromise is essential in the world of human affairs, but is forbidden in the world of science. This has led to countless disputes and arguments because what we read in scriptures etc. is sometimes at variance in what science teaches us. … Science does not always win these battles between the two different worlds.
Distinguished scientists and scientific institutions, for a while, argued that eugenics is a science, but in the end it was shown to be nothing but racism. … All scientists can, in their evaluation of observations and measurements, some of the time be swayed by subjective factors. However, in the long term “organized skepticism” makes science self-correcting.
George Philander, 12 December 2017, Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union, San Francisco

9. George Philander’s Questions
George Philander, 12 December 2017, Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union, San Francisco
George Philander’s Questions
Many of the problems we face are beyond the limited scope of science. Global warming is one of them because it raises both a scientific question (a) and an ethical question (b):
How will a rise in atmospheric CO2 levels affect climate?
This scientific question receives enormous attention, and much has been learnt: global warming has taken effect and poses a real threat.
Given limited resources, what is the appropriate balance between our responsibilities to future generations, and our obligations to those suffering today?
This is an immensely complex ethical question … because global warming amounts to a “Tragedy of the Commons”, a class of problems that requires a bridge across the divide between the different worlds of science and of human affairs.

10. Democratic decision making and the role of (climate) science
Summary
The most significant achievement of international climate research in the past 30 years has been the identification of an ongoing global warming, the statistical proof that external to the climate system are behind this change, and that the link between elevated greenhouse gas concentrations and warming is the only available physically consistent explanation for the warming at this time.
Climate protection
2° goal
Division of labor between policymaking and science
End of summary

11. Scientific knowledge about climate
“Science” refers here to what in Germany is called “Naturwissenschaften”.
Science is not presenting eternal truth, but best explanations irrespective of societal preferences. These best explanations are tested again and again and in many cases eventually replaced by an even better explanation.
Ludwik Fleck
Newest scientific results
IPCC reports

12. Solid Knowledge: Detection and Attribution
95% and more among the respondents agree to the reality of ongoing climate change
Is the recent warming within the range of variations generated by the climate system itself?
Detection
Attribution
Byproduct of attribution
Global and regional air temperature
Signs on the wall

13. Adaptation and Mitigation
Budget concept
Need for adaptation
The service of sciences for society
“There is no alternative”
“Right” decisions
“There is no alternative” is a deeply and fundamentally un-democratic and apolitical assertion.
The role of science is the clarification of effects of proposed political measures including in-action.
Uncertainty is no reason for not-acting.

14. The case of coastal defense in Northern Germany The scientific community holds the consensus that sea level will increase in the coming decades of years; in the long term possibly strongly. In the coming 25 years, an increase beyond 30 cm is improbable, so that the present security design for coastal defense should be sufficient. But later, sea level will continue to rise, and this rise may be significantly accelerated. In that case, a fortification and revision of coastal defense may become mandatory in the later years. Therefore it is sensible to use the coming 25 years for - Implementing all modernization in a way so that a later time additional fortifications are possible. - Havng a solid monitoring program for determining the real rise of regional sea level. - Investing into new technologies, such as improved dike surfaces, which withstand higher spillover during storm surges. - Participatory processes with local stakeholders dealing with the acceptability of possible future coastal defense strategies.

15. The role of climate science in generating democratically determined societal will.
The political decision process in a democracy is built on the recognition of a variety of interests and perceptions. In this process solutions are determined, which are generally accepted - but not necessarily welcomed by a large majority.
The democratic decision process does not led to factually “better” solutions, as our experience demonstrates again and again. The process leads to acceptability and thus social peace.
Experts contribute to this process by informing societal groups and deciders, with which (partial) consequences different possible solutions are associated. Experts consider only a subset of all consequences; often they are interest-led.
Scientific knowledge is brought into the arena of public attention by experts. There this knowledge competes with other (alternative) knowledge claims, and often enough looses this competition.
When scientists demand the implementation of a specific policy, they do so without their scientific authority, since their filed of competence is narrow and covers only a minor segment of societally relevant issues.