Car CO2 emissions reduction strategies for China Paul Nieuwenhuis & Clovis Zapata ESRC BRASS Centre, Cardiff University

Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS New Markets (000s of new vehicles)

Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS CO2 in our atmosphere ( )

Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS CO 2 Global warming V Kyoto Protocol V EU Commitment V EU: ACEA-EC agreement:,SO…

Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS EU Car sector response Voluntary reductions from by a number of manufacturers, incl. Volvo ACEA-EC agreement: –intro of 3 litre cars (<100g/km) by 2000 –2008: average 140g/km –2012: average 120g/km (proposed) Also followed by JAMA (Japan), KAMA (Korea) (1995 EU fleet average: 170g/km)

Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS How do you reduce CO2? Improve fuel consumption - increase powertrain efficiency; reduce weight use non-carbon or lower-carbon alternative fuels (e.g. H 2 ; CNG, LPG) use carbon-neutral fuels (e.g.ethanol, biodiesel) reduce total miles driven

Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS CO2 Winners 140g cars: –Fiat Panda (all) –Fiat Punto 1.2 8v –Ford Focus 1.8 TDCi 98 –Merc A Class 170CDI –MINI One 1.4D –Peugeot Hdi –Renault Scenic 1.5dCI –Vauxh Corsa 1.0 & diesel –VW Polo 1.9SDi & 1.4TDiPD 120g cars: –Audi A21.4TDi –Citroen C2/C3 Hdi –Honda Civic IMA –Peugeot HDi –Renault Megane 1.5dCI –Smart ForTwo Coupe(all) –Toyota Prius –VW Lupo 1.7SDi & 1.4TDiPD

Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS Average new car CO2 emissions (2005)

Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS UK CO 2 -based road tax regime CO 2 -based company car taxation system Incentives for alternative fuel vehicles Fuel price escalator (dropped 2000)

Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS UK Segmentation change

Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS UK new car CO2 emissions China 2005 (source: SMMT, BRASS)

Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS China: Forecast car growth (source: BRASS)

Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS China – suggested policy/technology options (Zhengzheng 2006) Encourage small cars Encourage diesel cars Encourage alternative fuels and powertrain New incentives: –Reduction of consumption tax on small cars (< 1000cc) from 3% to 1% –Increase in consumption tax for large vehicles (> 3000cc) from 8% to 14%-20% –Reduced parking charges for small cars –Lift all restrictions on use of small cars (e.g. Guangzhou)

Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS Minicars Japanese kei cars: –3.4mx1.48mx2m –max 660cc Korean minicars (800cc) European small car tradition –Encouraged by taxation regimes –Including sub-cars

Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS Diesel Cars 25% - 30% lower CO2 emissions than petrol for same engine size However higher carbon content per litre Diesel is lean-burn hence produces higher NOx emissions than modern petrol Also higher PM emissions – carcinogenic Most of the EU reduction in vehicle CO2 emissions has been achieved by a shift from petrol to diesel

Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS Diesel cars (in red) 140g cars: –Fiat Panda (all) –Fiat Punto 1.2 8v –Ford Focus 1.8 TDCi 98 –Merc A Class 170CDI –MINI One 1.4D –Peugeot Hdi –Renault Scenic 1.5dCI –Vauxh Corsa 1.0 & diesel –VW Polo 1.9SDi & 1.4TDiPD 120g cars: –Audi A21.4TDi –Citroen C2/C3 Hdi –Honda Civic IMA –Peugeot HDi –Renault Megane 1.5dCI –Smart ForTwo Coupe(all) –Toyota Prius –VW Lupo 1.7SDi & 1.4TDiPD

Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS Alternative Fuels/Powertrain Alternative fuels –Can be used in existing IC engines with no or minor modification –Low impact on car makers –Potentially carbon neutral –E.g.: CNG, LNG, LPG, biodiesel, bioethanol Alternative Powertrain –Alternatives to IC –High impact on car makers –E.g.: fuel cells, hybrid-electric?

Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS

Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS Alternatives for China? China needs crops to feed its people, not its cars China could only make H2 from coal (some hydro, a bit of oil); which would need carbon sequestration So these do not solve its immediate problems

Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS …or hybrid IC-electric: e.g. Toyota Prius now made in China

Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS China: CO2 reduction scenarios

Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS Conclusion Although all technologies considered improve on the baseline Hybrid-electric has the greatest impact …or possibly a diesel-electric hybrid powertrain fitted to a minicar!