Development of short-term business demography statistics Koen De Backer STD OECD Short Term Economic Statistics Expert Group Paris, 10 September.

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Development of short-term business demography statistics Koen De Backer STD OECD Short Term Economic Statistics Expert Group Paris, 10 September 2009

Entrepreneurship Indicators Programme (EIP) (1) cooperation between OECD, Eurostat and the Kauffman Foundation - started in 2006, first results published in 2008 - internationally comparable indicators on entrepreneurship and business demography firm birth and deaths, survival… high growth enterprises and gazelles

Entrepreneurship Indicators Programme (EIP) (2) based on business registers, data provided by National Statistical Officies EIP produces solid but rather late indicators official (NSOs) and validated indicators not timely: 2-3 years time lag A high demand for more timely entrepreneurship indicators: - financial crisis; short term, leading indicators

A first alternative: using timely administrative data Chambers of Commerce, Business Associations… Trying to establish correlation between EIP indicators and these timely data series Eurostat exercise Finland, Hungary, Italy and Spain Births, deaths, firm population Overall stong correlation/coherence between different series But problems of different classification systems/completeness

A second alternative: using Labour Force Surveys Scoping study using EU data for 2000-2006 demonstrated feasibility of using LFS data to create: (a) monthly/quarterly estimates of self-employment and/or business ownership rates (b) quarterly estimates of self-employment ‘start-up’ rates (c) self-employment ‘survival’ rates

Examples – UK: ‘start-ups’

‘Survival rates’ Probability of Remaining in Self-Employment by Quarter – UK, 2000-2006

Feasible, but… Differences in target groups: LFS: self employed EIP: employer enterprises Differences in definitions: LFS: entry, exit… EIP: birth, death.. Statistical problems small sample sizes create volatile start-up rates survival rates based on incrementally smaller responses no seasonally adjusted trend estimates for start ups? Averaging over time of survival rates?