Crop Market Outlook Pro-Ag Meetings Mt. Pleasant and Williamsburg, Iowa Nov. 14, 2012 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1
U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Area Planted (mil. acres) 86.0 86.4 88.2 91.9 96.9 Yield (bu./acre) 153.9 164.7 152.8 147.2 122.3 Production (mil. bu.) 12,092 13,092 12,447 12,358 10,725 Beg. Stocks 1,624 1,673 1,708 1,128 988 Imports 14 8 28 29 100 Total Supply 13,729 14,774 14,182 13,515 11,814 Feed & Residual 5,182 5,125 4,795 4,547 4,150 Ethanol 3,709 4,591 5,019 5,011 4,500 Food, Seed, & Other 1,316 1,370 1,407 1,426 1,367 Exports 1,849 1,980 1,834 1,543 1,150 Total Use 12,056 13,066 13,055 12,527 11,167 Ending Stocks 647 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 4.06 3.55 5.18 6.22 7.60 Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2
U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Area Planted (mil. acres) 75.7 77.5 77.4 75.0 77.2 Yield (bu./acre) 39.7 44.0 43.5 41.9 39.3 Production (mil. bu.) 2,967 3,359 3,329 3,094 2,971 Beg. Stocks 205 138 151 215 169 Imports 13 15 14 16 20 Total Supply 3,185 3,512 3,495 3,325 3,160 Crush 1,662 1,752 1,648 1,703 1,560 Seed & Residual 106 110 130 91 115 Exports 1,279 1,499 1,501 1,362 1,345 Total Use 3,047 3,361 3,280 3,155 3,021 Ending Stocks 140 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 9.97 9.59 11.30 12.50 14.90 Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3
Crop Conditions Source: USDA-NASS
Prices
Projected Corn Yields
Objective Corn Yield Data Source: USDA-NASS
Projected Soybean Yields
Objective Soybean Yield Data Source: USDA-NASS
World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10
World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB 11 11
World Weather Source: USDC and USDA 12 12
U.S. Meat Production & Prices Higher feed costs have led to lower meat production projections. Source: USDA-WAOB 13 13
Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
Corn Grind for Ethanol Negative margins at some ethanol plants have dragged down production.
U.S. Blended Gasoline Consumption 7.6 bil. gal. But the industry still faces blend wall issues as fuel consumption has dropped with the economy and the E-10 market is basically full. 7.4 bil. gal. Source: DOE-EIA, via USDA-ERS
Current Corn Futures 6.72 5.75 5.49 Source: CME Group, 11/13/2012
Current Soybean Futures 13.43 12.19 11.87 Source: CME Group, 11/13/2012
Early Prices for 2013 Crops 2013 crop prices are still strong to entice acreage to remain in production.
Total Acreage Shift Source: USDA-NASS We brought back a lot of acres in 2012. Can we hold them in 2013? Source: USDA-NASS
Acreage Shift by State Top: Planted in 2012 Bottom: Change from 2011 Weather was great for planting in 2012 (just not for producing). To hold acreage we will need great planting weather again. Top: Planted in 2012 Bottom: Change from 2011 Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS
Acreage Shift by Crop Acreage change from 2011 Units: 1,000 acres Cotton will likely give up acreage again. But with crop prices strong across the board, the acreage battle could be interesting in 2013. Source: USDA-NASS
Thoughts for 2012 and Beyond Supply/demand concerns Soil moisture issues Biofuel and export strength Worldwide response to drought-induced pricing 2012/13 USDA Futures (11/13/12) 2013/14 Corn $7.60 $6.72 $5.75 Soybeans $14.90 $13.43 $12.19
Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/