Changes in surface climate of the tropical Pacific

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Presentation transcript:

Changes in surface climate of the tropical Pacific

Based on Chapter 2

Outline and key messages Main features of region’s climate system We are affecting the climate system - climate is already changing Future will be warmer Extreme weather likely to be more extreme Our climate will be changing for foreseeable future

Main climate features of the region

Pacific atmospheric circulation Trade winds Convergence zones Nauru sensitive to SPCZ position Walker and Hadley circulations

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Major source year-year climate variations

Typical El Niño and La Niña rainfall anomalies Wetter (green) or drier (orange)

Typical El Niño and La Niña rainfall

Typical El Niño and La Niña SST anomalies Warmer (red) or cooler (blue)

Sea surface temperature

Projected changes in climate

Redistributing sun’s energy = climate system Global annual mean energy budget W m-2 Trenberth et al 2009 Without the atmosphere the Earth would be ~30oC cooler More greenhouse gases trap more energy in climate system

Why are climate scientists so sure climate is changing due to human activities? Theory Modelling Evidence: instrumental measurements changes in the physical world changes in the biological world paleoclimate archives The climate system appears to be changing faster than earlier thought likely Steffen 2009

Measured increase in carbon dioxide 18th century = 280ppm air bubbles in ice cores 2011= 391ppm Mauna Loa

Observed warming of global temperatures

Projecting future climates Emisions Scenario IPCC-AR4 (2007) Temperature (oC) 2100 Rainfall 2035 2050 Low (B1) 450-500 ppm CO2 0.5-1.0 ? 1.0-1.5 5-15% 10-20% High (A2) 750-800 ppm CO2 2.5-3.0 5-20% Predicting future forcing – how much more greenhouse gases? Range of possible futures but he future will be WARMER

Spatial variation in warming

Preparing for TC Jasmine Vanuatu Extremes The answer to the oft-asked question of whether an event is caused by climate change is that it is the wrong question All weather events are affected by climate change because the environment in which they occur is warmer and moister than it used to be Trenberth 2012 Preparing for TC Jasmine Vanuatu

Important points to note Extremes will become more extreme Unclear how ENSO will change – continued influence

For foreseeable future, climate will be CHANGING Summary Future for Nauru will be warmer and wetter Not just a “new climate” to which we can adapt For foreseeable future, climate will be CHANGING

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