The Use and Impact of FTA Third International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making 16th- 17th October 2008 The Use and Impact of FTA Attila Havas and Ron Johnston Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, and Australian Centre for Innovation

A new, pragmatic approach is proposed The Use and Impact of FTA Motivation Theoretical frameworks to assess impacts of FTA seem to overly sophisticated (reviewed in the anchor paper) A new, pragmatic approach is proposed (not another academic attempt) Invite the community to work on the impact of FTA conduct empirical work (case studies, evaluation projects, comparative analyses, etc.) review/ analyse empirical results develop relevant methods, experiment with new approaches

A climate of urgency to address the future The Use and Impact of FTA Current state of FTA A climate of urgency to address the future Increased adoption at many levels and in various forms Varied roles: an expert-based policy informing tool an integral part of policy processes, operating by forward looking strategic support to informing and co-ordinating functions a pacemaker through capacity building for policy intelligence

Key challenges for the FTA community The Use and Impact of FTA Key challenges for the FTA community How is the practice of FTA contributing to the effective addressing of the major challenges we face in the future? If it is not sufficiently being employed, what shortcomings can be identified? What steps can be taken to ensure a greater and more effective application of FTA, with more visible impacts?

Six function of foresight for policy-making – FTA 2006 The Use and Impact of FTA Six function of foresight for policy-making – FTA 2006 Informing policy Facilitating policy implementation Embedding participation in policy-making Supporting policy definition Reconfiguring the policy system A symbolic function

Arguments used by FTA experts to promote the adoption of FTA The Use and Impact of FTA Arguments used by FTA experts to promote the adoption of FTA Somewhat theoretical/ abstract arguments to convince decision-makers that: (i) a variety of issues needs to be tackled (ii) an FTA-based approach is the most appropriate means for addressing these issues

Arguments used by FTA experts (2) The Use and Impact of FTA Arguments used by FTA experts (2) FTA can improve decision-making processes by emphasising the possibility of alternative futures, and the opportunity of shaping a preferred future FTA can address the complexities arising from the interaction of socio-economic and technological drivers by bringing together different communities with complementary knowledge and experience FTA process can reduce uncertainty because participants can align their endeavours once they achieve a shared vision FTA processes help in identifying and achieving attitudinal/ behavioural changes, and encourage creative thinking

Arguments used by FTA experts (3) The Use and Impact of FTA Arguments used by FTA experts (3) FTA processes contribute to strengthening existing networks and clusters and building new ones FTA can assist policy-makers by providing a sound understanding of the underlying causes and mechanisms of technological change FTA dialogues with a wide range of stakeholders lead to a more transparent decision-making process, and hence offer a way to obtain public support FTA can assist policy-makers faced with intensifying social concerns about new technologies

What users want from FTA The Use and Impact of FTA What users want from FTA Less uncertainty in decision-making A feasible (‘actionable’) plan A tool that aligns with organisational decision- making processes and timeframes A means to challenge and catalyse staff and stakeholders Varies by countries/ organisations/ individuals!

Differentiating what users want … The Use and Impact of FTA Differentiating what users want … Advanced countries: FTA is one of many tools; practical delivery of outcomes is the most important criterion for adoption Countries with less well-established governance systems: a major national FTA project as a central component of their development strategies Large companies: enhanced strategic planning, preferably embedded in high performance software systems Innovation-intensive SMEs: impatient with any tool that diverts them from their core business, while at the same time regularly apply improvised FTA perspectives

An illustration: impacts of Foresight The Use and Impact of FTA An illustration: impacts of Foresight Functions of Foresight assessed policy informing policy advisory/ strategic counselling policy facilitating The cases considered: evaluated national Foresight programmes UK eForesee in Malta (international programme) Hungary Sweden source: Havas, Schartinger and Weber [2007]

Impacts of Foresight … (2) The Use and Impact of FTA Impacts of Foresight … (2) Policy informing Results of F: a ‘reservoir’ of knowledge Uneven way as active inputs into the political process Quality and trustworthiness of the reports: of value in decision-making processes Strategic counselling Time lag between F and the use of F results in policy-making  extremely difficult to evaluate the impacts Policy facilitating „Soft“ evidence of the sustainable creation of new linkages and of networks of major stakeholders

Difficulties of evaluating impact are intrinsic to the role of FTA The Use and Impact of FTA Conclusions Embedding FTA in the decision-making processes is a far from trivial task It is crucial to evaluate FTA activities/ processes, but new methods are needed Difficulties of evaluating impact are intrinsic to the role of FTA The closer the inter-action between FTA and policy-making, the more difficult is isolating the effects of single FTA activities on a complex and continuous process like policy-making

Make impact assessment a widely used practice The Use and Impact of FTA Recommendations Make impact assessment a widely used practice Analyse the differences between the promised, expected and actual impacts 1 & 2  improved design of FTA projects, a more appropriate and wider use of FTA