Population Issues in India in the foreseeable future Purushottam M Kulkarni Workshop on India’s Population:Emerging Dimensions Under the auspices of Speaker’s Research Initiative (SRI) February 7, 2019

Population growth in the last century

Mortality declined- the death rate fell steadily after 1921 and steeply after 1951- but fertility remained moderately high leading to rapid population growth. Population increased from 24 crores in 1901 to 103 crores in 2001 and then to 121 crores by 2011; the population size more than quadrupled through the twentieth century. The rate of growth was very high after 1951 and over two percent per annum during 1961-1991. There were fears of ‘population explosion’ and the situation appeared alarming with some panicky reaction; neo-Malthusian policy measures were introduced .

But fertility also began to show decline, especially after 1970 But fertility also began to show decline, especially after 1970. The demographic transition has been in progress. The Total Fertility Rate (the average number of births a woman would have in life time if she survives through the childbearing ages) has fallen to 2.3 in 2016 and has gone below 2 in many states covering about half the national population. Mortality decline has been continuing; the estimated life expectancy is about 70 years for females and 68 years for males for the recent period. There is hardly any talk of population explosion now and fears on population explosion are rarely heard.

Population size and growth in India, 1901-2011

Declines in Crude Birth and Death Rates (per 1000), 1901-2011

What is likely to happen in the foreseeable future What is likely to happen in the foreseeable future? Population Projections

India is approaching replacement level low fertility and mortality. The growth rate has already slowed down and is projected to fall further. Various projections show that further growth would not be large. India’s population may reach a level close to 170 crores, perhaps lower, in the 2060s and then begin to decline slowly.

Principal results of projections for India, up to 2061   Population Size (in crores) Age distribution (%) CBR CDR RNI Year Male Female Persons 0-14 15-64 65+ (per 1000) (annual %) 2001 53 50 103 35.4 59.8 4.8 25.4 8.3 1.71 2011 62 59 121 30.9 63.7 5.5 21.8 7.1 1.47 2016 67 63 129 28.0 65.9 6.1 19.7 7.0 1.27 2021 71 137 25.7 67.6 6.7 18.2 1.12 2026 74 70 144 24.1 68.5 7.4 16.5 0.94 2031 77 151 22.4 69.1 8.5 14.7 7.3 0.74 2036 79 76 155 20.7 69.5 9.8 13.4 7.6 0.58 2041 81 78 159 19.1 69.6 11.3 12.5 8.0 0.45 2046 83 80 162 17.9 69.2 12.9 11.9 8.6 0.33 2051 165 17.1 68.3 14.6 11.4 9.3 0.21 2056 84 82 166 67.0 10.7 9.9 0.08 2061 15.9 65.5 18.7 10.2 10.6 -0.04

Changes in Age Structure and Demographic Dividend

The age structure of population has been changing and will change further The population has begun to age and will continue to age The share of young age population will fall and that of old ages, 60+ or 65+ , will rise steadily The share of middle ages will rise for some time

Projected percentage age distribution, India, up to 2061

Projected trends in broad age distribution, India, up to 2061

Population pyramid, India, 2011 (populations in millions)

Projected population pyramid, India, 2031 (populations in millions)

Projected population pyramid, India, 2061 (populations in millions)

Window of Demographic Opportunity The share of population in working ages, 15-59 or 20-64 is projected to rise. This will lower the dependency ratio yielding the ‘demographic dividend’, or demographic opportunity. The dependency ratio has fallen below 67 percent (two-thirds) and will remain so up to 2050s. The peak dividend will accrue in through the 2020s and 2030s. The window will begin to close after that.

Projected trend in dependency ratio (percent) of population in ages 0-14 and 60+ (young and old ages) to population in ages 15-59 (working ages), up to 2061

Regional variations in population growth

The demographic transition, decline in mortality and fertility, has not been uniform across states and regions Some regions, especially the southern states, north-western states, Maharashtra and West Bengal are ahead in the transition Such staggered transition has implications in terms of residual growth, variations in growth over time, and the timing of the window of demographic opportunity Some states will reach the stage of zero growth around 2040 whereas some will continue to grow beyond 2060 The shares of states in the national population will change

Population (in crores) Projected populations 2061, large states, (without inter-state migration)   Population (in crores) 2061 Broad age distribution (percent) 2061 Vital rates Growth 2001 2011 2061 2001 to 2061 State 0-14 15-64 65+ CBR CDR RNI (%) (crores) ( %) India 102.86 121.08 165.69 15.9 65.5 18.7 10.2 10.6 -0.04 62.83 61.1 AP & Telangana 7.62 8.46 9.61 14.3 62.4 23.3 9.1 13.1 -0.39 1.99 26.1 Assam 2.67 3.12 4.34 16.7 66.3 17.1 11 11.2 -0.02 1.68 62.9 Bihar 8.30 10.41 19.53 19.1 68.4 12.5 12.3 7.4 0.49 11.23 135.3 Chhattisgarh 2.08 2.55 3.62 16.8 0.06 1.54 73.9 Delhi 1.39 12.7 60.1 27.2 8 12.2 -0.42 0.61 43.9 Gujarat 5.07 6.04 7.97 16 64.1 19.9 10.4 -0.08 2.90 57.2 Haryana 2.11 2.54 3.29 15.3 63.8 20.8 10.1 11.3 -0.12 1.17 55.4 Himachal Pradesh 0.69 0.76 13 61.5 25.4 8.2 12.6 -0.44 0.15 24.9 Jammu & Kashmir 1.01 1.25 1.61 13.4 64 22.6 9 0.60 58.9 Jharkhand 2.69 3.30 4.96 67.4 15.8 10.9 9.6 0.13 2.27 84.2 Karnataka 5.29 6.11 7.00 13.9 62.5 23.6 8.9 12.8 1.72 32.5 Kerala 3.18 3.34 3.57 13.5 60.3 26.2 8.5 12 -0.35 0.38 Madhya Pradesh 6.03 7.26 11.16 17.4 67.2 11.4 9.9 0.16 5.12 84.9 Maharashtra 9.69 11.24 12.81 12.9 61.6 25.5 8.1 -0.41 32.2 Odisha 3.68 4.20 5.17 64.8 19.2 -0.15 1.49 40.5 Punjab 2.44 2.77 3.03 60.7 26.6 7.9 -0.49 24.6 Rajasthan 5.65 6.85 10.80 17 66.7 16.3 0.2 5.15 91.1 Tamil Nadu 6.24 7.21 7.47 60.8 26.3 -0.57 1.23 19.7 Uttar Pradesh 16.62 19.98 32.39 68.1 14.5 9.2 15.77 94.9 Uttrakhand 0.85 1.26 13.6 22.2 8.6 -0.23 0.42 49 West Bengal 8.02 9.13 10.32 13.3 62.1 24.7 -0.43 2.30 28.7

Projected populations (in millions) up to 2061, very large states (without inter-state migration)

Projected populations (in millions) up to 2061, large states (without inter-state migration)

Projected populations (in millions) up to 2061, moderate sized states (w/o inter-state migration)

Projected trends in shares of states, 2001 to 2061 (without inter-state migration)   2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 AP & Telengana 7.4 7.0 6.7 6.4 6.2 6.0 5.8 Assam 2.6 Bihar 8.1 8.6 9.1 9.9 10.5 11.1 11.8 Chhattisgarh 2.0 2.1 2.2 Delhi 1.3 1.4 1.2 Gujarat 4.9 5.0 4.8 Haryana Himachal Pradesh 0.6 0.5 Jammu & Kashmir 1.0 Jharkhand 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 Karnataka 5.1 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.2 Kerala 3.1 2.4 2.3 Madhya Pradesh 5.9 6.3 6.5 6.6 Maharashtra 9.4 9.3 8.9 8.3 8.0 7.7 Odisha 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 Punjab 1.9 1.8 Rajasthan 5.5 5.7 6.1 Tamil Nadu 5.6 5.3 Uttar Pradesh 16.2 16.5 17.3 18.0 18.5 19.0 19.5 Uttarakhand 0.8 West Bengal 7.8 7.5 7.2 Remaining 1.6 India 100

Projected trends in Various Regions (population in crores)

Projected trends in Various Regions (population shares in percent)

Projected Trends in Decadal Growth in Various Regions (population in crores)

Projected Trends in Decadal Growth in Various Regions (percentage shares)

Projected trends in dependency ratio, large states leading in transition

Projected trends in dependency ratio, large states lagging in transition

Phases of demographic dividend, large states

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