The Global Positioning System A Worldwide Information Utility February 2001

Overview PolicyPolicy Applications & MarketsApplications & Markets AugmentationsAugmentations Sustainment & ModernizationSustainment & Modernization International CooperationInternational Cooperation

PolicyPolicy

GPS is a Dual-Use System Cold War spinoffCold War spinoff –Developed in 1970s-1980s to support Allied forces –Prominent in Gulf War, Kosovo –After KAL-007, civilians gained free access to Standard Positioning Service Commercial use now dwarfs military useCommercial use now dwarfs military use GPS policy is managed at a national level by the Interagency GPS Executive Board (IGEB)GPS policy is managed at a national level by the Interagency GPS Executive Board (IGEB)

Agriculture Commerce State Interior NASA Justice Joint Chiefs of Staff DefenseTransportation Interagency GPS Executive Board

United States GPS Policy Presidential Decision Directive signed in 1996, endorsed by Congress in 1998Presidential Decision Directive signed in 1996, endorsed by Congress in 1998 GPS Standard Positioning Service to remain free of direct user feesGPS Standard Positioning Service to remain free of direct user fees U.S. to promote acceptance and use of GPS as a world standardU.S. to promote acceptance and use of GPS as a world standard Selective Availability -- ended May 2000Selective Availability -- ended May 2000 IGEB to manage GPS as a national assetIGEB to manage GPS as a national asset

United States GPS Policy, contd. Encourage private sector investment in/use of GPS technologies and servicesEncourage private sector investment in/use of GPS technologies and services Promote safety and efficiency in transportation and other fieldsPromote safety and efficiency in transportation and other fields Promote international cooperation in using GPS for peaceful purposesPromote international cooperation in using GPS for peaceful purposes Advance scientific and technical capabilitiesAdvance scientific and technical capabilities Strengthen and maintain national securityStrengthen and maintain national security

Applications & Markets

Worldwide Sales of GPS Goods & Services Will Reach $16B by 2003

Worldwide GPS Revenues By Market Segment

Car Navigation On-board navigationOn-board navigation Fleet managementFleet management Roadside assistanceRoadside assistance Stolen vehicle recoveryStolen vehicle recovery Enhanced servicesEnhanced services Mass market dominated by JapanMass market dominated by Japan Dataquest: Unit sales of chips for car navigation to reach 11.3M in 2001Dataquest: Unit sales of chips for car navigation to reach 11.3M in 2001 $4.7B sales by 2003$4.7B sales by 2003

Consumer/Recreational Portable receivers for fishermen, hunters, hikers, cyclists, etc.Portable receivers for fishermen, hunters, hikers, cyclists, etc. Recreational facilities -- golf courses, ski resortsRecreational facilities -- golf courses, ski resorts Integration of GPS into cellular phonesIntegration of GPS into cellular phones –E-911 requirement $3.8B market by 2003$3.8B market by 2003

Surveying/Mapping/GIS Sub-centimeter accuracySub-centimeter accuracy 100%-300% savings in time, cost, & labor100%-300% savings in time, cost, & labor –Control survey point: $10,000 in 1986; $250 in 1997 Rural electrificationRural electrification Telecom tower placementTelecom tower placement PipelinesPipelines Oil, gas, and mineral explorationOil, gas, and mineral exploration Flood plain mappingFlood plain mapping $3.12B market by 2003$3.12B market by 2003

Tracking/Machine Control Package/cargo deliveryPackage/cargo delivery Fleet and asset managementFleet and asset management Theft recoveryTheft recovery Public safety and servicesPublic safety and services Farming, mining, and construction equipmentFarming, mining, and construction equipment DGPS/RTK required for many applicationsDGPS/RTK required for many applications $3B market by 2003$3B market by 2003

Public Services City planningCity planning Transportation infrastructureTransportation infrastructure –Road Billing Network (ROBIN) –Snowplows Emergency responseEmergency response –Law enforcement –Fire fighting –Search and rescue –Paramedics –Disaster relief

Aviation GPS approved for en-route navigationGPS approved for en-route navigation More efficient flight routing leads to fuel savingsMore efficient flight routing leads to fuel savings Better tracking of aircraft enhances safetyBetter tracking of aircraft enhances safety Closer spacing of planes increases airspace capacityCloser spacing of planes increases airspace capacity $710M market by 2003$710M market by 2003

Maritime Navigation GPS-based vessel tracking and traffic management maximizes effectiveness of waterwaysGPS-based vessel tracking and traffic management maximizes effectiveness of waterways Improved safety increases maritime commerceImproved safety increases maritime commerce Maritime DGPS service for enhanced accuracy and safety available in 34 countriesMaritime DGPS service for enhanced accuracy and safety available in 34 countries $210M market by 2003$210M market by 2003

Original Equipment Manufacturers ChipsetsChipsets Electronic boardsElectronic boards Antennas, componentsAntennas, components Standalone receiversStandalone receivers $690M market by 2003$690M market by 2003

Military GPS is a recognized NATO standardGPS is a recognized NATO standard GPS is required on all U.S. military systemsGPS is required on all U.S. military systems Precision munitions widely used during Gulf War, KosovoPrecision munitions widely used during Gulf War, Kosovo

Timing GPS offers an inexpensive alternative to costly, high maintenance timing equipmentGPS offers an inexpensive alternative to costly, high maintenance timing equipment Telecommunications network synchronization & managementTelecommunications network synchronization & management –Phones, pagers, wireless systems –LANs, WANs, Internet Financial transactionsFinancial transactions Electrical power grid management & fault locationElectrical power grid management & fault location Digital signatures for e-commerceDigital signatures for e-commerce Some estimate the timing market at $40-100MSome estimate the timing market at $40-100M

Scientific Research Monitoring geological changeMonitoring geological change –Glaciers, tectonic plates, earthquakes, volcanoes Wildlife behaviorWildlife behavior Atmospheric modelingAtmospheric modeling –Water vapor content Oceanic studiesOceanic studies –Tidal patterns –Surface mapping Time transferTime transfer

Environmental Management ForestryForestry Wetlands managementWetlands management Natural resource managementNatural resource management Fisheries boundary enforcementFisheries boundary enforcement Endangered species and habitat preservationEndangered species and habitat preservation Hazardous material cleanupHazardous material cleanup –Oil spills, toxic waste

Emerging GPS Applications Entrepreneurs and scientific researchers invent new applications almost every dayEntrepreneurs and scientific researchers invent new applications almost every day Higher precision is necessary for many cutting-edge applicationsHigher precision is necessary for many cutting-edge applications –Differential GPS (DGPS) –Relative DGPS –Carrier phase positioning –Real-Time Kinematic (RTK) –Post-processing

Precision Agriculture Maximize use of resourcesMaximize use of resources –Optimized plowing of crop rows –Tailored applications of seeds, fertilizer, water, pesticides –Improved management of land, machinery, personnel, time –Greater crop yields –Net benefit: $5-14 per acre Minimize environmental impactsMinimize environmental impacts –Localized identification and treatment of distressed crops reduces chemical use –Precise leveling of fields prevents fluid runoff

Open Pit Mining Enhanced management of assets, equipmentEnhanced management of assets, equipment Progress tracked in real-time, remotelyProgress tracked in real-time, remotely Improved machine control saves time, lowers maintenance and fuel consumption, prevents accidentsImproved machine control saves time, lowers maintenance and fuel consumption, prevents accidents Rapid surveying for drilling blast holesRapid surveying for drilling blast holes Smaller, more empowered workforceSmaller, more empowered workforce

Space Applications Improved orbit and attitude control for spacecraft, International Space StationImproved orbit and attitude control for spacecraft, International Space Station Space Station return vehicleSpace Station return vehicle Advance Land Observing Satellite uses GPS to calibrate high resolution radar mapsAdvance Land Observing Satellite uses GPS to calibrate high resolution radar maps Satellite formation flyingSatellite formation flying Space launch range safetySpace launch range safety

Construction Machinery, asset, and personnel managementMachinery, asset, and personnel management Rapid surveys for laying foundation piles, etc.Rapid surveys for laying foundation piles, etc. Accident preventionAccident prevention Remote control of machinery possibleRemote control of machinery possible –Japanese volcano dam GPS/RTK technology was used in the construction of the Øresund Bridge between Denmark and Sweden

Europe is a Major Player in the GPS Market Rapid growth projected, especially in car navigation sectorRapid growth projected, especially in car navigation sector Many European firms already provide GPS goods and servicesMany European firms already provide GPS goods and services –Scandanavian GNSS Industry Council European governments are investing in GPS augmentation and reference systemsEuropean governments are investing in GPS augmentation and reference systems –Maritime DGPS –EGNOS –EUREF Permanent Network

The Market is Wide Open Civil signals are freely available, right nowCivil signals are freely available, right now Openly published GPS specifications allow anyone to build receivers (no licensing fees)Openly published GPS specifications allow anyone to build receivers (no licensing fees) Hardware is becoming a commodityHardware is becoming a commodity Huge potential exists in value-added servicesHuge potential exists in value-added services –Software development –Embedded applications –Localized GIS databases –Internet integration –Wireless markets

Unit Cost of Receivers Is Falling At ~30% Per Year 0 $200 $400 $600 $ Source: U.S. GPS Industry Council

Projected Relative Market Share

AugmentationsAugmentations

Sustainment & Modernization

Constellation Status 28 operational satellites28 operational satellites –6 Block IIR satellites on orbit –23 Block II/IIA operational satellites; Last launch: January 30, 2001Last launch: January 30, 2001 Next tentative launch date: August 2001Next tentative launch date: August 2001 Continuously assessing constellation health to determine launch needContinuously assessing constellation health to determine launch need

Constellation Age by Satellite Years on Orbit Predicted Mean Mission Duration Block II:8.90 years Block IIA:10.68 years Block IIR:10 years (est.) Predicted Mean Mission Duration Block II:8.90 years Block IIA:10.68 years Block IIR:10 years (est.) Operational Satellite Non-Operational Operational Satellite Non-Operational SVN 41 IIIIA IIR

GPS Modernization Program Need for upgrades recognized as GPS entered Full Operational CapabilityNeed for upgrades recognized as GPS entered Full Operational Capability –Anti-jam military needs –Better, more reliable civilian service –Recognized growing importance of GPS to both sectors 1996 Presidential policy and 1998/1999 Vice Presidential announcements committed U.S. to modernization and improvement path1996 Presidential policy and 1998/1999 Vice Presidential announcements committed U.S. to modernization and improvement path –New signals, better service ( no direct user fees) –Selective Availability (SA) discontinued –Over $1 billion added to future U.S. GPS investment

The End of Selective Availability May 2, 2000

P(Y) C/A Modernized Signal Evolution C/AP(Y) P(Y) P(Y) M C/A M Present Signal (Block II/IIA/IIR) 2 nd Civil; M-Code Block IIR-M (IOC: 2008; FOC: 2010) 3 rd Civil Block IIF (IOC: 2012; FOC 2014) C/A P(Y)M P(Y) C/AM 1176 MHz (L5) 1227 MHz (L2) 1575 MHz (L1)

Block IIR-Modified L1 L2 L1 Enhancements New M E code L1 Enhancements New M E code L2 Enhancements New M E code New civilian signal (selectable between C/A & R/C) L2 Enhancements New M E code New civilian signal (selectable between C/A & R/C) Modifications Status – Power system characterized – New high power amplifier brass-boarded – Initial backward compatibility tests completed – New L-band panel designed – Software flexible M-code spectrum and signal power levels – Modernizing towards the next generation of GPS – Modifying Block IIR satellites – Tailored constellation sustainment program

Block IIR Schedule FY SV Modification ATP Aug 00 Basic IIR Launches (JPO Projected Profile) 1st IIR SV Retrofit/Delivery/Launch OCS 12th SV Retrofit/Delivery/Launch 1st IIF Lite Delivery/Launch Dev PDRCDR USAF Legacy Update IOC M earth FOC M earth DevelopmentLegacy Ops Transition

Block IIF L1 L1 Enhancements M E code added L1 Enhancements M E code added L2 Enhancements M E code added New civilian signal (selectable between C/A & R/C) L2 Enhancements M E code added New civilian signal (selectable between C/A & R/C) L2 L5 New L5 Signal New robust Civilian Nav Signal New L5 Signal New robust Civilian Nav Signal Modify six satellites already on contract to include – M-code on L1 and L2 – L5 signal Procure additional Block IIF satellites necessary to sustain constellation – Six plus options Ensure compatible M-Code signal implementation Define Control Segment changes for implementation under SPI effort Program Status – Recognized need to push up schedule for operational need date - Sep 05 – Compressing development Program schedule – Revising long-lead and production program phasing

Block IIF Schedule USAF FY IOC M earth FOC M earth IIF Development SV 1-6 Modification ATP (Aug 00) SV Deliveries IAT SV Launches Last IIR Mod Vehicle 14 IIF LLProd SV 7 - 9IAT IOC L FOC L LL SV IAT Prod USAF OCS Version 6 Ops Transition OCS Version 5 Development JPO Projected Launch Profiles V5 SW Delivery V6 SW Delivery Ops DevelopmentTransition DAE Review 4/01

Operational Control Segment Incremental software versions and hardware upgrades to support modernization requirements MonitorStation Master Control Station (Schriever AFB) GroundAntenna Control M-CodeControl M-Code Transition from mainframe system to distributed system architectureTransition from mainframe system to distributed system architecture Support improved system security architecture; Accuracy Improvement Initiatives (add NIMA monitoring stations; improve Kalman filter); initial Block IIF functionalitySupport improved system security architecture; Accuracy Improvement Initiatives (add NIMA monitoring stations; improve Kalman filter); initial Block IIF functionality Full Block IIF functionality; support L5Full Block IIF functionality; support L5

GPS III Program Procure cost-effective GPS system to meet next generation military and civilian positioning, navigation, and timing needsProcure cost-effective GPS system to meet next generation military and civilian positioning, navigation, and timing needs SpaceSegment ControlSegmentUserEquipment

The GPS III Opportunity Assess system-wide architectural alternatives to:Assess system-wide architectural alternatives to: –Achieve current and long term GPS performance goals –Reduce long term total ownership costs –Capitalize on emerging technologies –Provide flexibility and robustness to meet evolving requirements –Discover military and economic value of pushing to higher performance capabilities ScopeScope –Military and Civil –Possible augmentation opportunities Ensure best GPS system for the next 30 years

GPS III Concept Exploration Phase 12-month study between government and industry12-month study between government and industry –Two contractors (Lockheed Martin, Boeing) –Firm Fixed Price contracts –$16M per contractor –Awarded 8 Nov 00 –Spectrum Astro (participating on company funds) Near term goalsNear term goals –Build technical requirements set –Illustrate requirements through architectural solutions –Complete Life Cycle Cost (LCC) and cost benefit assessment

GPS III Study Phase Products Technical Requirements for Development Milestones Technical Requirements for Development Milestones Architectures that support Technical Requirements Architectures that support Technical Requirements Life Cycle Cost estimates for each Architecture Life Cycle Cost estimates for each Architecture Risk Analysis Risk Analysis Draft System Effectiveness and Performance Metrics Draft System Effectiveness and Performance Metrics Initial Test and Evaluation Master Plan (TEMP) Initial Test and Evaluation Master Plan (TEMP) Acquisition Strategy Acquisition Strategy Entry/Exit criteria for Development Milestones Entry/Exit criteria for Development Milestones Technology Roadmap Technology Roadmap

GPS III Architecture Study Status Successful initial meetings (Nov 00) and Laboratory Days (Jan 01)Successful initial meetings (Nov 00) and Laboratory Days (Jan 01) Near real-time communication in place (web-based)Near real-time communication in place (web-based) Lockheed MartinLockheed Martin –Three teams (System Engineering, Architecture, Life Cycle Cost) –Solid initial architectural assessments BoeingBoeing –Five teams (System Concept, User, Ground, Space, Secondary Payloads, Operations and Support) –Focusing on mission and requirements analysis Spectrum AstroSpectrum Astro –Signed Memorandum of Agreement (Dec 00) –Program plan, schedule, and team structure near complete –Providing innovative inputs to GPS III, working to improve position for follow-on phases

GPS III Acquisition Strategy FY00 Original ATP (Apr 00) PD/RR Program Review (MS I/II) SRR Competitive Trade Studies (Two contractors) PD/RR (Two contractors) Contract Award ATP (Aug 00) RFP/ SS SARD CARD Inputs ASR RFP/ SS

GPS III Acquisition Strategy, Contd Qual Vehicle Testing Complete EMD (Single contractor) LLP (MS IIIa) CDR Box/System Qual Tests Integ/Assy/Test PDR Down Select (MSII) PD/RR (cont)

International Cooperation

Promote acceptance and peaceful use of GPS and its augmentationsPromote acceptance and peaceful use of GPS and its augmentations –International offering of GPS to ICAO and IMO Service free of direct user chargesService free of direct user charges Non-proprietary signal standards for civil servicesNon-proprietary signal standards for civil services –GPS Augmentations -- Worldwide interoperability Space-based systems (WAAS, MSAS, EGNOS) for aviationSpace-based systems (WAAS, MSAS, EGNOS) for aviation Land-based DGPS technology for maritime and terrestrial uses: already adopted by 35 countriesLand-based DGPS technology for maritime and terrestrial uses: already adopted by 35 countries Global, non-proprietary standardsGlobal, non-proprietary standards

Principles for Cooperation No direct user fees for civil and public safety servicesNo direct user fees for civil and public safety services Ensure open market driven competition for user equipment and applicationsEnsure open market driven competition for user equipment and applications Open signal structure for all civil services to promote equal access for applications development and value added servicesOpen signal structure for all civil services to promote equal access for applications development and value added services Protection of the current radionavigation spectrum from disruption and interferenceProtection of the current radionavigation spectrum from disruption and interference Use of GPS time, geodesy, and signal structure standardsUse of GPS time, geodesy, and signal structure standards Seamless, global interoperability of future systems with GPSSeamless, global interoperability of future systems with GPS Recognition of national and international security issues and protecting against misuseRecognition of national and international security issues and protecting against misuse

U.S. - Japan Cooperation September 1998: Joint Statement signedSeptember 1998: Joint Statement signed GPS based augmentationsGPS based augmentations Largest commercial market share for products and servicesLargest commercial market share for products and services September 1999: Working Groups met in Washington, D.C.September 1999: Working Groups met in Washington, D.C. –Policy –Transportation –Commercial & Scientific February 2001: Plenary Meeting, TokyoFebruary 2001: Plenary Meeting, Tokyo

U.S. - Russia Consultation May 19 in Washington, D.C.May 19 in Washington, D.C. Excellent dialogueExcellent dialogue –Many common views –Principles of Cooperation Next meeting in MoscowNext meeting in Moscow

U.S. - E.U. Consultations Use of GPS and its augmentations for commercial products and services incorporating open signal structureUse of GPS and its augmentations for commercial products and services incorporating open signal structure 1998: U.S. presented draft Framework Agreement based on GPS and its augmentations1998: U.S. presented draft Framework Agreement based on GPS and its augmentations –Consider inclusion of: International Advisory Commission, Intent of Guarantee, Statement of Free Service 2000: Cooperation concept2000: Cooperation concept –Stage 1: Framework Cooperative Agreement based on Principles of Cooperation –Stage 2: Working groups –Stage 3: Follow-on agreement to cover Galileo operations phase

U.S. - E.U. Draft Agreement Presented to the Commission on October 5Presented to the Commission on October 5 Embodies GPS Policy & Principles of CooperationEmbodies GPS Policy & Principles of Cooperation –Government provided satellite signals free of user fees –Interoperability with GPS –Open signals for critical infrastructure and safety-of-life services –Open specifications and markets for civil equipment and services –Users choose which system or combination best meet their needs Recognizes efforts of other fora: ICAO, IMO, ITURecognizes efforts of other fora: ICAO, IMO, ITU Accounts for different levels of system maturityAccounts for different levels of system maturity Lays foundation for future cooperationLays foundation for future cooperation Next round of talks scheduled for March 20-21, 2001Next round of talks scheduled for March 20-21, 2001

U.S. Questions About Galileo To be understood:To be understood: –Revenue stream generation –Future regulatory actions –Required use (mandate through standards) –Interoperability of free open system with fee-based encrypted system Safety of life applicationsSafety of life applications –Prevention of misuse –Open specifications and standards for equal worldwide market access –Spectrum use –Security service

Summary GPS is a key component of the global information infrastructureGPS is a key component of the global information infrastructure U.S. is committed to providing GPS service free of direct user fees to users worldwideU.S. is committed to providing GPS service free of direct user fees to users worldwide Adherence to U.S. principles has led to GPS standardization and market growthAdherence to U.S. principles has led to GPS standardization and market growth GPS modernization is under wayGPS modernization is under way U.S. is continuing international outreach to further understanding of GPS, its augmentations, and its applicationsU.S. is continuing international outreach to further understanding of GPS, its augmentations, and its applications U.S. is fostering international dialogue to be responsive to global user needsU.S. is fostering international dialogue to be responsive to global user needs