(In)visibility of CC Workshop, Nov. 2013 Case Studies on Climate Impacts Matthias Lüdeke (In)visibility of CC Workshop, Nov. 2013 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Some hypotheses and (open) questions regarding: Local climate change projections The possibility to prove local benefits from emission reductions The problems of open uncertainty communication to local decision makers Identifying types of CC-vulnerability to enable the formation of interest- and knowledge-exchange groups in the CC-realm Dr. Matthias Lüdeke, Climate Change and Development Group Research Domain II – Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities 2 2

Climate change projections: 1/4 Climate change projections: the more local the more uncertain (for many climate variables) –> We know least on the scale where weather can be directly experienced by the people how to deal with that? Dr. Matthias Lüdeke, Climate Change and Development Group Research Domain II – Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities 3 3

Climate Change projections and their uncertainty for Hyderabad/India Dr. Matthias Lüdeke, Climate Change and Development Group Research Domain II – Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities 4 4

2/4 Are local climate change impacts significantly reduced by global emission reductions? Is there a direct benefit for, e.g., a city government to engage in efforts for global emission reductions, including own, local mitigation? Dr. Matthias Lüdeke, Climate Change and Development Group Research Domain II – Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities 5 5

Climate Change projections and their uncertainty for Hyderabad/India Dr. Matthias Lüdeke, Climate Change and Development Group Research Domain II – Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities 6 6

Hyderabad/India under Climate Change Extreme Daily Precipitation in Hyderabad once-in-2-years percentile Lüdeke et al, 2010 Locations of Critical Flow Accumulation 50% B1 A2 B1 A2 2000 2050 2100 all IPCC-AR4 runs Increase of people severely affected B1 A2 Kit et al. 2011 50% impact reduction under the Low Emission scenario Dr. Matthias Lüdeke, Climate Change and Development Group Research Domain II – Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities 7 7

Uncertainty communication to local decision makers: 3/4 Uncertainty communication to local decision makers: Large efforts in CC-projections compared to the uncertainty discussion of local socio-economic projections and even present trends -> How to avoid bias in decisions which mostly have to consider both? Dr. Matthias Lüdeke, Climate Change and Development Group Research Domain II – Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities 8 8

a) c) b) Slum dwellers affected by future flooding (mid 21stcent.) Trend-based slum dev. scenarios Hyderabad/India Dr. Matthias Lüdeke, Climate Change and Development Group Research Domain II – Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities 9 9

4/4 Identifying types of CC-vulnerability: which groups will encounter similar CC-impacts, potentially establishing interest and knowledge-exchange groups in the CC-realm? Dr. Matthias Lüdeke, Climate Change and Development Group Research Domain II – Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities 10 10

Rapid coastal urbanisation: typical vulnerability patterns Port-au-Prince Mumbai Manila Rio de Janeiro Lagos Dr. Matthias Lüdeke, Climate Change and Development Group Research Domain II – Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities 11 11

Rapid coastal urbanisation: typical vulnerability patterns 3 example clusters: Presently low flood exposure but high sensitivity -> unprecedented damage types under future CC Increasing damage from all types of extreme events under poor adaptation ability Declining natural protection against prevailing floods and future SLR, moderate coping abilities Dr. Matthias Lüdeke, Climate Change and Development Group Research Domain II – Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities 12 12

RAPID URBAN IMPACT APPRAISAL – Step 1: filtering Considered impact path: Pluvial flooding Slum areas People affected Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

(In)visibility Workshop of CC, Nov. 2013 Thanks for your interest! (In)visibility Workshop of CC, Nov. 2013 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Present and future urban slums under Climate Change Lacunarity based slum identification from actual QuickBird (0.6x0.6m) satellite imagery Kit et al., 2011 Dr. Matthias Lüdeke, Climate Change and Development Group Research Domain II – Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities 15 15

Rapidly urbanizing coastal areas in developing countries Research Result: Climate Proofing: Entry points for supporting climate proof development, depending on vulnerability profile: infrastructure sectors to concentrate on emphasis on deprived areas restoration of natural protection Kok/Lüdeke/Sterzel et al., in press 6 clearly separable clusters in 17-dim indicator space => different vulnerability profiles

Weather related impacts on different socio-economic groups and socially sensitive adaptation options Climate proofing (heat and rain events): Increasing the easiness of mobility better the living situation for both groups Wallahs: investment in health infrastructure better than in energy infrastructure City managers: the opposite Improvement of water supply and drainage infrastructure reduces ALL associated problems in traffic, water, economic and health situation for City managers and Wallahs Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (survey based) of weather impacts for different social groups Here: rain for Wallahs in Delhi (Reckien et al, in prep.) Rain events: Improvement (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Wallahs 2.8 2.2 5.5 1.5 2.1 1.1 City managers 1.6 2.7 0.9 1.0 Six improvement scenarios evaluated using the social group specific FCMs for heat and rain events: (1) Improvement of water and sewage infrastructure (2) Selfhelp solutions by working in the dark, repairing houses, private power generation (3) Increase the easiness of mobility (4) Investment in energy infrastructure and provision without and (5) with “private access” (6) Extension of health infrastructure

(In)visibility Workshop, Nov. 2013 From Malte Meinshausen Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research