Strategy Processes and Foresight in Research Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making 28th – 29th September 2006 Strategy Processes and Foresight in Research Councils and National Research Programmes Per Dannemand Andersen & Mads Borup Risoe National Laboratory

Background National research and innovation councils, national research programmes and similar entities are important users of foresight. Research councils and national research programmes are a dynamical part of national science systems compared to basic funding for universities and other research institutions. Research councils and research programmes are mediating arenas between science and politics. Arenas for coordination and formulation of commons view between scientists and institutions Launching research programmes in itself is priority-setting.

On research councils and programmes

Focus of the paper Traditional focus: This paper’s focus: analysing difficulties in implementing foresight results within research councils’ and research programmes This paper’s focus: Analysing strategy processes in research councils and national research programmes: What do they do when they do strategy? How do they understand strategy? Analytical dimensions (inspired by the call for this seminar): Rationales and drivers for strategy processes Actors involved Methods and approaches Understandings of strategy

The study Based the project “Strategies and identity of science - a study of strategy processes in national research programmes” Funded by the Danish Social Science Research Council Carried out in 2003-2004 Two cases were analysed: the strategy processes of The Danish Technical Research Council, Strategy plan for 2003-2007, carried out in 2001-2002 The Danish Energy Research Programme, new strategy carried out in 2003-2004 Changes in the Danish Research System affecting the study 2002: 2/3 cut in energy research following the change of government in 2001 2005: Restructuring of the research council system

Rationales Rationales for strategy and foresight in science and technology Underpinned by the evolutionary perspective (or school) within economics – national, regional, sectorial innovation systems (neo-classical economists tend to disfavour governmental interference in priority setting, etc.) Today's political arguments for science: Prospects of increased wealth vs. a better understanding of nature and of mankind Foresight and strategy processes in research councils and research programmes share the same rationales or objectives (i.e. as listed by Georghiou&Keenan) But such rationales for foresight with its focus on “innovation”, “priority-setting”, “inclusion of stakeholders”, and “future prospects” challenges traditionally thinking (Mode-1) scientists

Methods and approaches Methods and approaches to strategy and foresight in science and technology Underpinned by the tradition of strategic management literature ‘Strategy’, ‘priority-setting’ and ‘foresight’ are not household terms among many scientists Often associated with “administration”, “bureaucracy”, “political intervention in science” – early death and other catastrophes A quite simplified understanding of what strategy is about – (i.e. Mintzberg) alternative understandings: strategy as environment scanning, as learning, as positioning, etc. Focus on rational-analytical models or understandings of decision processes (i.e. March) alternative understandings: Anarchical models (muddling through, logical incrementalism, garbage can), Political models (powers, mean/goal compromises)

Rationales and drivers

Actors involved

Methods and approaches

Understandings of strategy – research council The strategy of covering all existing research areas Supporting existing areas – the opposite of priority-setting? The strategy of positions of strengths Underpinning priorities related to scientific strengths rather than future potentials The strategy of gaps and weaknesses Priorities related to scientific weaknesses - compared to international developments The strategy of more money Attention to science by illustrating its societal importance The strategy of no strategy No priorities made – the strategy is a description of existing activities and some promising perspectives The strategy of co-ordination coordination activities - creating and reinforcing networks The strategy of new measures or new instruments The strategy of (techno-scientific) territory Demarcation, e.g. against natural sciences and the natural science research council

Understandings of strategy - energy programme The strategy of new technologies Technology and not science discipline oriented The strategy of developing new production and consumption systems Innovation system oriented The strategy of serving industry

Conclusions 1 Research councils and research programmes do carry out strategy processes that have similarities with foresight exercises. Only very few traditional Future-Oriented Technology Analysis Methods are used. These processes can be improved by implementing processual elements of foresight exercises – especially with respect to elements such as legitimacy of future perspectives inclusion of actors

Conclusions 2 Language and terminology. The scientific community not always familiar with common strategy and foresight terminology. Rational-analytical processes. Foresight exercises are often understood and outlined as rational-analytical decision processes - whereas research councils seem to follow more other models (muddling-through, garbage can, logical incrementalism, political, etc.) Priority-setting on measures and instruments. Priority-setting goes beyond selections between alternative areas of science and technology, also measures and instruments are important issues in research strategies. Overall national policies. Foresight exercises taking national policies into account as a boundary condition are much easier to implement than those challenging national policies.

More information on this study: per.dannemand@risoe.dk A small related study: Mapping of Nordic national research and innovation council systems and analysis of their needs for foresight and similar strategic intelligence. A small survey of Nordic Foresight Network Draft report by early October http://nff.risoe.dk/