1. Foresight methodology& commonly used methods

2. The context of Foresight: STEEPV V E P E T S Systemic Foresight

3. SFM - Questions Science & Ecology Technology & Economics Socioeconomics Politics & Values What is possible? What is desirable? What is feasible? Systemic Foresigh t Systemic Foresigh t

4. Context, Content & Process of Foresight Social system Technologic al system Economic system Ecological system Political system Values

5. Setting up an exercise Rationales Objectives Focus Resources Time horizon Methodology Work plan Project team Expertise Stakeholders Understanding Synthesis & Modelling Analysis & Selection Transformation Action planning Structural Changes Behavioural Changes Resource Planning Impact Assessment Evaluation Iteration 1 2 3 4 5

6.  Systemic understanding –Creates shared understanding and mutual appreciation of issues at hand  Systems synthesis and modelling –The input from scanning is synthesised into conceptual models of the situations involved in the real world  Systemic analysis and Selection –Analyses the alternative models of the future and ‘prioritises’ them, through intensive negotiations among system actors and stakeholders, to create an agreed model of the future  System transformation –Establishes the relationship between the future and the present for a change programme  Systemic action –Creates plans to inform present day decisions for immediate change to provide structural and behavioural transformations Thought experiments Systemic Foresight Methodology

7. Methods for Foresight

8. Understanding ICTs Energy Environmental Scanning, Bibliometrics, Literature review, Analysis of trends and drivers, Key indicators, Systems Analysis, Analysis of Strengths and Weaknesses, Expertise

9. Images of the future Business as usual A continued growth at a slower pace than in the past Only a few technical breakthroughs but with no major socio-political impacts. The gap between innovators and laggards increases. Slower rates of growth than the ones up to year 2000 GDP and GDP p.c. over the period 2002-2010 to increase around 13% for innovator countries such as Finland and Ireland, around 10% for advanced countries (UK, France, Germany) and around 8 % for laggards (Italy and Portugal). Hard times The use of ICT is reduced due to socio-economic factors affecting the EU region (i.e. wars, unexpected climate variations). Laggards and less developed countries are expected to suffer the most from the region’s economic downturn (i.e. mismanagement of large companies, speculative bubbles possibly causing stagflation and financial crisis). No follow the leader situations and laggard countries struggle to find policies aiming to stabilise trade and commerce. Much lower rates of growth than the ones up to year 2000. New Generation A future characterised by high-tech innovations widely accepted by all advanced Countries. Less developed countries thanks to international cooperation. Laggards and less developed countries are the initial gainers from general improvement of the cultural & research climate. Laggard countries introduce policies that proved to be successful in innovative countries. Greater or equal rates of growth than 1993-2000, so it foresees GDP & GDP p.c. Mega trends analysis, Weak signals, Wild card analysis, Simulation, Creativity workshops, Brainstorming, Future Opportunities and Threats, Gaming, Scenario planning

10. Analysis & Selection Business as usual A continued growth at a slower pace than in the past Only a few technical breakthroughs but with no major socio-political impacts. The gap between innovators and laggards increases. Slower rates of growth than the ones up to year 2000 GDP and GDP p.c. over the period 2002-2010 to increase around 13% for innovator countries such as Finland and Ireland, around 10% for advanced countries (UK, France, Germany) and around 8 % for laggards (Italy and Portugal). Hard times The use of ICT is reduced due to socio-economic factors affecting the EU region (i.e. wars, unexpected climate variations). Laggards and less developed countries are expected to suffer the most from the region’s economic downturn (i.e. mismanagement of large companies, speculative bubbles possibly causing stagflation and financial crisis). No follow the leader situations and laggard countries struggle to find policies aiming to stabilise trade and commerce. Much lower rates of growth than the ones up to year 2000. New Generation A future characterised by high-tech innovations widely accepted by all advanced Countries. Less developed countries thanks to international cooperation. Laggards and less developed countries are the initial gainers from general improvement of the cultural & research climate. Laggard countries introduce policies that proved to be successful in innovative countries. Greater or equal rates of growth than 1993-2000, so it foresees GDP & GDP p.c. SWOT analysis, Multi-criteria analysis, Cross impact analysis, Prioritisation, Delphi survey, Voting

11. Connecting the future with the present Low energy consuming, non-polluting car Roadmapping, Backcasting, Relevance trees, Logic charts

12. Actions Priority lists Critical / key technologies R&D planning Resource (skills, labour, time, funds) planning Organisational restructuring Changes in work practices, procedures Impact assessment Evaluation

13. A case: Methodology for a Regional Foresight exercise Objectives of the RF exercise:  Policies and strategies for the Renewable Energies sector (e.g. improve competitiveness of companies, scientific organizations and intermediaries; establish the capital region as relevant and attractive location; improve services; and exploit a large market in the region and beyond)  Key technologies (e.g. identify key technologies for the next 10-20 years; promote technology learning; strengthen technology transfer; utilize existing technologies; and involve in the development, shaping and expert technologies)  Structural and organizational improvement of the sector (e.g. improve collaboration among actors; improve supplier / value chains; initiate new partnerships and investments; establish state-wide SME network; and establish international activities)

14. Policy path  Scanning: For the analysis of STEEPV systems to understand what type of energies will be needed and what kind of demand will come out  Key Indicators / Forecasting: For the analysis of sectoral forecasts and long term projections  Mega trend analysis: To understand the broad policy tendencies at the Global/European/National levels  Synthesis of previous work: Large amount of the work on energy futures exists including plenty of scenario work (reviewing those scenarios would be useful to suggest a set of “synthesis scenarios”)  Scenarios: To discover alternative futures on policy developments  SWOT analysis of the regional capabilities against the visionary scenario  Roadmapping: Illustrating the priority areas, the actions to be taken in long, medium and short terms and the distribution of initiatives among the actors in the sector  Policy Recommendations: Policy actions to be taken in the short term

15.  Scanning: For the analysis of STEEPV systems and discuss their implications on technologies  Bibliometrics/Literature Review: For the review the technologies to generate energy and discuss in panels which are relevant and promising for the region  Key Indicators/Forecasts: Analysis of sectoral forecasts and long term projections on technologies  Synthesis: For the review and synthesis of the previous Foresight work  Scenarios with wide participation (including citizens) identify the ‘demands of society’ from the technology  Delphi: Represents the ‘supply’ side – whether the demands in the scenarios are possible and feasible or not. Helps to define time of realisation for selected technologies and technology areas. Also helps to identify priority technologies  Roadmaps: For the development of Technology Roadmaps for prioritised technologies at different levels such as Technology – Product / Capability / Development / Research  Produce a list of critical technologies  Suggest R&D projects and plan R&D activities and resources Technology path

16.  System Analysis: Analysis of the value chain helps to come to a better understanding of how the sector works and what the actors / stakeholders are  Clustering by stakeholder mapping helps to map the actors in the sector and to indicate ‘who is doing what’  Mega trend analysis: Sectoral megatrends will give clues on changing roles in the sectors and inclusion of new actors / stakeholders in the process in the future  Scenarios: Various scenarios around Input-Output relationships illustrate the future organisation of the sector  SWOT analysis of the existing structures against the structures suggested in the visionary / most desirable scenario  Delphi: To identify types of collaborations needed among stakeholders in order to establish new links in the system  Strategic plans: for the restructuring of the sector in the medium term  Action planning: To suggest immediate actions to change / improve structures and organisations and to introduce new rules and regulations Structural path

17. Webpage: www.kocaeliab.gov.tr www.kocaeliisep.gov.tr Enver DÜZ EU Coordinator of Kocaeli Province (Provincial Director of social Studies and Projects ) T.R. GOVERNORSHIP OF KOCAELİ EU PROJECTS COORDINATION CENTRE Thank you very much for your attention.