The Road to Zero: Energy System Challenges and Opportunities Simon Harrison Mott MacDonald

What matters for the energy system Capacity to meet peak demand Ability to manage peak supply (new – renewables) Total energy requirements Getting energy to the point where consumers use it Balancing supply and demand minute by minute, 24/7. Big issue for electricity, less so for gas and hydrogen Reacting to consumers who now generate and store energy, and can potentially contribute to managing system costs and performance Managing across vectors (electricity, gas, hydrogen, liquid fuels, heat, coolth) – (mostly new). Embracing, rather than being frustrated by or frustrating, the digital transformation in society at large (new)

ZEV Capacity and Energy Challenge - electricity Numbers not too frightening 22-30% more electricity by 2050 11% more generating capacity by 2050 But the assumptions are….. Smart charging and V2G essential Consumer buy-in essential Fragmented industry will need intense coordination This comes as part of the biggest change in electricity since the 19th century Source of numerical data: National Grid FES 2018

ZEV capacity and energy challenge - hydrogen Up to 30 TWh by 2050 Equivalent to about 10% of electricity today Heating may move to hydrogen on same timeframe Huge increase in hydrogen usage from today New sources of hydrogen? Carbon captured from power generation reformed with natural gas Electrolysis from overplanting of variable renewables Policy coordination needed Whole new industries needed! Source of numerical data: National Grid FES 2018

Local delivery A 7kW (32 A) charger is 5-6 times the average domestic demand for a house. This seems to be the evolving auto industry standard More than a few on a feeder will blow the supply fuse at the local substation Smart charging and V2G can help a lot provided coordination is in place and consumers use them Without this major local electricity network reinforcements will be needed, rationing could become an issue Consumer trials at this level only just starting We lack a hydrogen infrastructure, some blending with natural gas is possible but future direction currently unclear. Making hydrogen locally might be an answer….but would need a lot of electricity

…some other major uncertainties Vehicle sharing Shared fleets would probably charge centrally, and connect to the 11 kV or higher system, avoiding need for low voltage reinforcement Fleet owners would probably respond to tariff signals to optimise time of charging and V2G operation Sharing may well take off after a lot of investment has been made in low voltage networks and on-street, workplace and home chargers, stranding some of that investment Superfast charging 350 kW chargers exist, 400 kW+ are in development – a fuel station experience This might imply 5-10MW loads, would they be constrained to strong electricity network locations? Might the market evolve so superfast dominates, negating the need for domestic, street and workplace charging and possibly stranding that investment?