Conditional Climatology Tools AvnFPS 3.2 Intent is for Aviation FP’s, SOO’s, RAM’s and anyone else that interested. We assume that you’ve seen the Camtasia presentation and are at least somewhat familiar with the new software. The case we’ll look at today has a handout that you hopefully downloaded and have available – if not, it’s not a big deal. Please mute your phone and feel free to mark a question on the screen at any time (make question mark on screen) This session should last about 1 hour.

Contributors While we enjoyed putting training together – we’re not a bunch of monkeys. Thought some may think otherwise.

Contributors Mike Graf (NWS Headquarters) Jerry Griffin (NWS Training Center) David Hotz (WFO Morristown, TN) Todd Lericos (WFO Caribou) Cammye Sims (WFO San Antonio) Mark Struthworf (WFO Salt Lake City) Jeff Tongue (WFO New York City) Aviation Services branch at Headquarters tasked this group of operational NWS meteorologists to developed a training package. We all helped put this together and believe that it will help you. Integration of new techniques and software into the operational field offices of NWS is a difficult task – our intent is to help you show these benefits to your staff.

Objectives Describe Conditional Climatology Definition Benefits/Limitations Discuss new AvnFPS 3.2 climatology tools Wind Rose CIG/VSBY Distributions CIG/VSBY Trends Discuss current forecast methods/limitations Adding Conditional Climatology to the Forecast Toolkit Interpret and apply the output Case studies Local case studies A brief section on what Conditional Climatology is and some Benefits/Limitations Discuss the tools spending most of our time on the CIG/VSBY Trends tool Discuss current cig and visby forecast methods/limitations Leading to why Conditional Climatology is needed Final we have a brief case study that explain the how to integrate that and serve as model for you to use for your own cases.

What is Conditional Climatology? A distribution of variables now and in the future based on one or more given conditions. Examples: Pattern Recognition Conceptual Models Local Rules of Thumb Forecaster Experience If you look in the glossary, you won’t find a definition for Conditional Climatology. This is our definition - A distribution of variables now and in the future based on one or more given conditions. If you think about it – a lot of tools we use are conditional climatology. From read sky at night, sailors delight to the Norwegian cyclone model associating over running and strataform clouds and precip with a warm front. Our experience of knowing how the atmosphere behaves in a certain situation is conditional climatology. We know what happens when these conditions are present. That’s what we’re trying to do here.

Role of Conditional Climatology in Aviation Forecasting Conditional Climatology Tables - USAF 1970’s to present Numerical models MOS 2000’s Integration of CC back into the aviation forecast process In terms of Aviation Forecasting, Conditional Climatology is not new. However, It seemed to have gotten lost as we moved into the numerical model era over the past 30 years. Raw model output and MOS have squeezed CC a bit out of the picture. Unfortunately, as we’ll see, numerical techniques have significant limitations when is comes to Ceiling and visibility forecasting. Thus – re-integrating these old proven techniques can provide us with significant value and improvement of our forecasts.

Benefits of Conditional Climatology? Guidance on event duration, intensity and trends Limits over forecasting of rare events Increases forecaster confidence Better results than just using persistence forecasting or NWP/MOS guidance Here are some of the benefits we see. The bottom line is that CC is not a magic solution – but that it can when applied correctly with other techniques to provided improved forecasts.

Limitations of Conditional Climatology Can not be used alone! Does not discriminate physical processes May not be useful in extreme or rare weather events Not fool proof Again – were not advocating that CC will always help or that forecasters should always use it. The fact is that CC often is not of much help…but can be especially useful during those significant high impact aviation events. CC really helps when you have low confidence in a forecast or when: you need to select timing when you need to chose a most likely scenario.

Wind Rose Tool The first tool we’ll discuss is the wind rose tool. While we don’t envision forecasters looking at these when making a TAF, we do think that focal point should make them available in a seasonal aspect. Perhaps post them on your internal web and have your forecasters look at them to get a seasonal refresher. Here we have afternoon winds (15-03Z) at San Antonio in July. Note the prevailing SSE direction We found that configuring the tool to 16 points is best. You should note that these are not the “common” wind rose displays that you’re use to seeing. The area covered by the shading is relate to the frequency of occurrence and that the percentage rings are logarithmically space – please look at the documentation for more details. ***SOOs and FPs – these data (which is output-able in ascii text) may be helpful for local research studies.

Applied Wind Rose Here an interesting Aviation application – the same period is used – but this time we only display the wind rose when IFR conditions are occurring. Note that the easterly direction is much more likely to occur.

CIG/VSBY Distribution Tool The second tool - is probably the most easiest to understand. These are cumulate frequencies. Again – you may wish to use these in season refresher – here we see the fall season for KMCI. Note the times here of increased of IFR in the morning and the relative quick drop off of the through the morning.

Why are we here? Click…

Why are we here? Click….

Why are we here? Look like anyone you know? SOO Intern Lead General

Why are we here? SOO Intern Lead General The SOO is killing me with all this Training Why are we here? , Why was this training developed in addition to the Camtasia “knobology” training Our group was made up of operational forecasters and we’re attempting to help improve our forecasting skills with relation to Aviation and TAF’s. We felt we need to help the focal points and SOO’s to fully understand these new tools so that you can help your local staff’s make the most of these new tools in AVNFPS 3.2 SOO Intern Lead General

CIG/VSBY Trend Tool The ceiling and Visibility trend tool is by far the most powerful and unfortunately more complicated tool. It can directly affect probably our most difficult forecast challenges – ceiling height and visibility.

How Do You Forecast Ceiling Height and Visibility???? Before we look at the AVNFPS 3.2 tool – lets look at how a TAF ceiling and visibility forecast is prepared.

How Do You Forecast Ceiling Height and Visibility????

How Do You Forecast Ceiling Height and Visibility????

How Do You Forecast Ceiling Height and Visibility????

How Do You Forecast Ceiling Height and Visibility????

How Do You Forecast Ceiling Height and Visibility????

What Tools Do you Use? If you ask your forecasters or yourself what they use to forecast ceiling heights or visibility – you’ll get some interesting answers. As we all know, forecasting ceiling and visibility to nearest 100 ft for ceiling and ¼ mile for visibility is not an easy task. PAUSE TO ASK QUESTION OF PARTICIPANTS – Round robin with all attendees OR select one or two offices.

What Tools Do you Use? Current Observations Satellite MOS Soundings / BUFKIT Model Data Local Studies Advection Convection Persistence These are some that we came up with – with the emphasis on the current observations including radar and satellite. Also MOS is a critical factor. Of course forecaster experience is critical too !

What Tools Do you Use? Current Observations Satellite MOS Soundings / BUFKIT Model Data Local Studies Advection Convection Persistence And as any aviation forecaster, if they chose to admit it, a hot pair of dice always helps!

Using NWP Model Data to forecast clouds The majority of our Forecasting relies on NWP. What would we do if we didn’t get model data for a week???

Models Relative Humidity??? Model Clouds??? Probably the most common method to forecast clouds is to use the vertical RH distribution. Most do not look at model clouds. Unfortunately models do not predict clouds or RH, they predict mixing ratios. Post processing takes mixing ratio and converts it into RH, dew point temperature and at NCEP – clouds. A reference for this is at the end.

Model Soundings? This is a NAM sounding. Notice the High RH near the surface. Would you forecast IFR?

BUFKIT – RH and Clouds Note that the model (NAM) thinks it is clear ! At least there are no “model” clouds.

Relative Humidity = Clouds? Another case – Would you forecast IFR???

Adding “Model” Clouds Model clouds agree in IFR.

RH with respect to ICE or Water? Hopefully you recall form College – Clausius-Clapeyron equation GFS output is with respect to ICE in AWIPS. NAM and RUC are with respect to WATER ! Plot a 300 MB RH field for yourself and see! In BUFKIT – you can calculate RH with RESPECT to ICE on the Left and With Respect to Water on the Right. RH With Respect to Water RH With Respect to Ice

RH Time Section RH is NOT a great tool for cloud forecasting.

Model Clouds and Bases Time sections are also available for both RH and clouds in the BUFKIT overview section.

How good are NWP Models at predicting: Moisture? It’s Horizontal and Vertical Distribution? Cloud Ceilings? BUT – models “stink” at forecasting moisture profiles and clouds.

Model Output Statistics! Good idea. Removes biases. Adds Climatology. MOS provides valuable improvement to “raw” model data – remember, bufkit is Raw model data.

MAV MOS Is the “Weather” in Caribou the same as State College PA or New York City? Is the Weather in Atlanta the same as San Antonio? Regional Equations are used for Ceiling and Visibility MOS equations are Regional (forecasters often do not realize this. We’re in Zone 18. Same equation is used at all the locations in zone 18. BIG Problem. (they had to do it this way to get enough statically sound regression equations) Also note that the Visby and Ceiling Equations are INDEPENDENT. Summer (Apr-Sept) Winter (Oct-Mar)

Alaska too is divided into 7 zones.

MAV MOS Model “Run time” plus 3 Hour Observation is Critical (03Z, 09Z, 15Z or 21Z) Use the Ceiling and Visibility Category Probabilities. Try to play up the fact that the 03,09,15 and 21z METARS are critical to the MOS calculations. For example – the 03Z Observation has a strong influence on the 00Z MOS (at least through the first few periods. If a low ceiling goes scattered for at at 03Z for a few minutes (sucker hole) – the MOS ceiling prediction will be off significantly!!

MOS - Ceiling and Visibility Category Probabilities. Standard MOS bulletins list only the most likely category of ceiling and vis. However, MOS actually calculates a probability for all Cig/Vvis categories (these are listed in AVNFPS) It is important to look at the distribution of possibilities in all categories rather than just the most likely category. This can help with confidence in MOS statistics– note that confidence in MOS should vary from day to day. For example, if the most likely flight category is a 3, but the probability for cat 3 is 28% and Category 2 is 27% and category 4 is 27% - then your confidence in MOS is low.

NGM MOS Look at NGM Synoptic Pattern Period of Record used for equation Development is Extensive 02Z and 14Z Observations are critical NGM MOS (FWC’s) are often “better” than the GFS “MAV” because of their long period of record and incorporation of climatology.

We need more Rules of thumb? “in this situation, the cloud base “usually” remains IFR until late morning.” CLIMATOLOGY!!! “Conditional” Climatology Rules of thumb (like don’t forecast IFR until the second night of on shore flow is really just applied climo. MOS does better with climo, and it helps in these situations. But we can improve further (CC).

Example 18Z TAF John F. Kennedy International Airport May 31, 2006

JFK International is located in southern Queens in New York City.

JFK is close the Atlantic Ocean

Local Visible from 1631Z Note extent of stratus onshore.

17Z METAR METAR KJFK 311651Z 14009KT 10SM BKN007 BKN250 19/16 A3020 RMK AO2 SLP226 T01940161 17UTC Observation IFR Ceilings / VFR Vis with SE Flow

Situation SE Flow Prevails When and How Low does the Ceiling and Visibility Go??

12Z NAM-eta (Fcst Hr = 05) Valid 17Z NAM Model Valid at current time – No clouds

15Z RUC (Fcst Hr = 02) Valid 17Z RUC Model Valid at current time – No clouds

12Z NAM-eta (Fcst Hr = 14) Valid 02Z NAM model 9- hours later (14 forecast point in model). High RH in lower levels – some clouds present.

15Z RUC (Fcst Hr = 11) Valid 02Z RUC model 9- hours later (11 forecast point in model). High RH in lower levels – no clouds present.

GFS MOS MOS forecast: Note the declining conditions after 03-06z. Cig and Vis are not in sync. [****NOTE to presenter: Point out that CIG and VIS calculations are done independently and that they sometimes do not make meteorological sense. For example, MOS cig/vis catagories will NOT pick up on things like stratus build-down.]

NGM MOS Note that Cig values are all over the place. Vis shows a general downward trend.

Current TAF KJFK 311509Z 311512 14009KT P6SM BKN007 TEMPO 1617 SCT007 FM1700 14009KT P6SM SCT010 SCT080 SCT140 FM0200 VRB04KT 1SM BR SCT004 SCT040 FM0600 VRB03KT 3/4SM BR BKN004 TEMPO 0811 1/2SM FG VV002= This was the actual TAF Starts IFR Tempo VFR 17z VFR 02z VFR 06z LIFR

Un-restricted Visibility Joint Distribution (default) May-Jun 16-18Z SE Wind 600-1000’ Un-restricted Visibility [Explain tool briefly to get audience familiar with what they are looking at] NOTE : JOINT DISTRIBUTION: with default settings. COUNT is 19 events

Un-restricted Visibility Ceiling Distribution (default) May-Jun 16-18Z SE Wind 600-1000’ Un-restricted Visibility NOTE : CEILING DISTIBUTION with default settings.

Un-restricted Visibility Visibility Distribution (default) May-Jun 16-18Z SE Wind 600-1000’ Un-restricted Visibility NOTE : VISIBILITY DISTIBUTION with default settings.

Un-restricted Visibility Ceiling Distribution Apr-mid Jun 13-22Z S-E Wind 500-900’ Un-restricted Visibility Key – You must expand out your dates, times and in this case – wind direction. Note that the count value is now up to 70! Alteration to default involved Expanding Month span Expanding Time frame Expanding Wind direction Adjusting Ceiling to fit in IFR category

Un-restricted Visibility Visibility Distribution Apr-mid Jun 13-22Z S-E Wind 500-900’ Un-restricted Visibility Visibility distribution still shows that Ceiling is the primary cause of the restriction.

What Would You Forecast? [***NOTE to presenter: Be sure highlight that the probability of VFR is inherent in this graph as the white space above the bars (i.e. 100-probability of MVFR and below)] [Ask question to audience; What would you forecast? (round robin or pick an office)]

What Was Forecast? FTUS41 KOKX 311700 TAFJFK TAF KJFK 311728Z 311818 14009KT P6SM BKN007 TEMPO 1923 SCT007 FM0200 14006KT 3SM BR BKN005 FM0600 VRB03KT 1SM BR OVC004 TEMPO 0811 1/2SM FG VV002 FM1400 18005KT 5SM HZ BKN008 FM1700 21009KT P6SM SCT010 SCT050= This was the actual forecast that without the benefit of CC. The forecaster was thinking that the sun would continue to result in scattered varying broken ceiling. Starts IFR Tempo VFR 02z IFR 06z LIFR 14z IFR 17z VFR

TAF based on Climatology? KJFK 311728Z 311818 14010KT P6SM BKN007 FM2200 14008KT 3SM BR OVC004 FM0000 14008KT 1/2SM FG VV002 …… ACTUAL TAF (no CC) KJFK 311728Z 311818 14009KT P6SM BKN007 TEMPO 1923 SCT007 FM0200 14006KT 3SM BR BKN005 FM0600 VRB03KT 1SM BR OVC004 TEMPO 0811 1/2SM FG VV002 FM1400 18005KT 5SM HZ BKN008 FM1700 21009KT P6SM SCT010 SCT050= We assume that the weather situation is steady state. Looking at the Conditional Climo Ceiling chart – there’s less than a 20% chance of VFR. Knowing that the flow stays on-shore, we forecast persistence until the Conditional Climo tells us that something will change – in this cast at 23Z LIFR becomes an increasingly more likely category. Actual TAF issued is listed here for comparison.

KJFK 311751Z 15007KT 10SM BKN007 19/16 A3020 RMK AO2 SLP225 T01890161 10194 20172 56004= KJFK 311851Z 15007KT 10SM VCFG BKN007 19/16 A3019 RMK AO2 SLP222 VIS S 2 1/2 T01890161= KJFK 311951Z 15009KT 8SM BKN007 19/16 A3017 RMK AO2 SLP217 T01890161= KJFK 312051Z 16011KT 8SM OVC007 18/16 A3016 RMK AO2 SLP213 T01830156 58013= KJFK 312151Z 15011KT 1/2SM BR OVC005 18/16 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 6 SLP203 T01780161= KJFK 312155Z 15011KT 1/8SM BR OVC003 18/16 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 6= KJFK 312214Z 15011KT 1/2SM BR OVC003 17/16 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 6 SFC VIS E-SE 2 1/2 $= KJFK 312251Z 15007KT 1/2SM R04R/3500VP6000FT BR OVC003 17/16 A3014 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1 1/2 SLP204 T01720161= KJFK 312351Z 15009KT 1/2SM R04R/2000V3500FT BR OVC003 17/16 A3014 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 3/4 SLP204 T01670161 10194 20167 56008= KJFK 010051Z 15006KT 1/2SM R04R/2200V3500FT BR OVC003 17/16 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 3/4 SLP203 T01670161= KJFK 010151Z 19009KT 1/4SM R04R/2000V2800FT FG VV002 17/16 A3014 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/2 SLP205 T01670161 $= KJFK 010232Z 18005KT 1/4SM R04R/1800V2200FT FG VV002 17/16 A3014 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/2 $= KJFK 010238Z 19006KT 1/8SM R04R/2000V2200FT FG VV002 17/16 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 $= KJFK 010251Z 18007KT 1/8SM R04R/2200V2600FT FG VV002 17/16 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/2 SLP203 T01670161 58001 $= KJFK 010324Z 17007KT 0SM R04R/1600V1800FT FG VV001 17/16 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 $= KJFK 010351Z 18007KT 0SM R04R/1400V1600FT FG VV001 17/17 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 SLP201 T01670167 $= KJFK 010451Z 17005KT 0SM R04R/1600V2000FT -DZ FG VV001 17/17 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/8 DZB35 SLP203 P0000 T01720167 401940167 $= KJFK 010551Z 14006KT 0SM R04R/1600FT FG VV001 17/17 A3012 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 DZE50 SLP199 P0000 60000 T01720167 10172 20167 58005 $= KJFK 010651Z 15005KT 0SM R04R/1200V1400FT FG VV001 17/17 A3010 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/8 SLP193 T01720167 $= KJFK 010751Z 18005KT 0SM R04R/1400FT FG VV001 17/17 A3008 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/8 SLP187 T01720167 $= KJFK 010851Z 18007KT 0SM R04R/2200V2600FT FG VV001 17/17 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/2 SLP182 T01720167 56017 $= KJFK 010911Z 17007KT 0SM R04R/1600V2000FT FG VV001 17/17 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 $= KJFK 010925Z 18007KT 0SM R04R/2000V3500FT FG VV001 17/17 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 $= KJFK 010951Z 20007KT 0SM R04R/2200V2600FT FG VV002 17/17 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/2 SLP182 T01720167 $= KJFK 011005Z 20006KT 0SM R04R/1800V2000FT FG VV002 17/17 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 $= KJFK 011014Z 21006KT 0SM R04R/1800V2000FT FG VV001 18/17 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 $= KJFK 011051Z 21004KT 0SM R04R/1400FT FG VV001 18/17 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 SLP183 T01780172 $= KJFK 011151Z 22006KT 0SM R04R/1000FT FG VV001 18/18 A3006 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/8 SLP180 T01830178 10183 20167 58002 $= KJFK 011251Z 20005KT 0SM R04R/1000V2000FT FG VV001 19/18 A3006 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 SLP179 T01890183= KJFK 011303Z 19006KT 0SM R04R/1400V2400FT FG VV001 19/18 A3006 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4= KJFK 011340Z 21007KT 0SM R04R/2000V5500FT BR OVC002 19/18 A3005 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 3/4= KJFK 011351Z 19007KT 0SM R04R/1600V4500FT BR OVC002 19/18 A3004 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1 1/4 SLP173 T01940183= KJFK 011451Z 18007KT 0SM R04R/2200VP6000FT BR BKN003 21/19 A3003 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1 SLP170 SFC VIS SE-SW 1/2 CIG 002V004 T02110189 58010= KJFK 011543Z 17006KT 3SM HZ BKN003 22/19 A3003 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 4 SFC VIS SW-W 1 1/2 BKN V SCT= KJFK 011551Z 19006KT 5SM HZ SCT003 22/18 A3002 RMK AO2 SLP166 SCT V BKN T02220183= KJFK 011651Z 17009KT 8SM FEW008 24/19 A3000 RMK AO2 SLP158 T02390189= KJFK 011751Z 18009KT 10SM FEW045 SCT250 24/19 A2998 RMK AO2 SLP151 CB DSNT N T02390189 10244 20183 58018= KJFK 011851Z 17010KT 10SM FEW045 SCT250 25/19 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP145 CB DSNT NE TCU DSNT N T02500194= KJFK 011951Z 18015KT 10SM SCT250 25/19 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP137 T02500189= KJFK 012051Z 18020G24KT 10SM FEW045 SCT250 24/19 A2990 RMK AO2 SLP124 TCU DSNT W T02390189 58027= It stayed IFR for the ceiling until 2155Z, an hour earlier than conditional climatology indicated. *the forecaster did not forecast LIFR until 06Z. Note that KJFK has a 400 ft tall tower and that augmented observations get affect by tower visibility.

Best times to use Conditional Climatology During “steady state” quiet weather situations. Fog/Stratus events Radiation Fog Advection Fog Marine Stratus Prevailing Wind Determining Onset and Dissipation Times. Seasonal Refresher and New Forecasters orientation. New TAF sites, where 30-years of data exists [ NOTE to presenter: good time to try and dispel the myth that CC is only useful in Radiation fog conditions, Point to the Salt Lake case study in the Camtasia training as an example of how to use in a changing weather environment.]

What You Need to Do Develop local Case Studies with your Airports and TAFs to learn how best to integrate the NEW tools into your TAF’s and your forecast operations.

Summary Conditional Climatology improves the TAF process through increased forecaster confidence. Must correctly integrate Conditional Climatology with Observations, NWP, MOS and other techniques. Conditional Climatology can improve TAF quality and service.

AVNFPS 3.2 Web Pages Main Page: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/pgb/AvnFPS/3.2/AvnFPS3.2.html Supplemental Instructions: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/pgb/AvnFPS/3.2/CS-DH-3.2.doc Here is a link to the AVNFPS 3.2 web page and a link to the supplemental instructions on this page. I would encourage you all to take a look through this web page. It have a great deal of supplemental material, tips and tricks.

Pre-View - AVNFPS 3.3

Pre-View AVNFPS 3.3

Pre-View AVNFPS 3.3

Thank You!

References BUFKIT: http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/tools/BUFKIT/ MOS: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/products.shtml MODCV: https://notus2.afccc.af.mil/ MODELS: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/

References Old Forecast Tools (Ouija Board, Crystal Ball, Dart Board and the “Magic” 8 Ball) available at Wal-Mart, Target and other fine stores!