1. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e Air Force Weather Agency Lt Col Jeffrey S. Tongue Individual Mobilization Augmentee Air Force Weather Agency Offutt AFB, NE Conditional Climatology Application to the TAF Preparation

2. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 2 Objectives Describe Conditional Climatology Definition Benefits/Limitations Discuss current forecast methods/limitations Adding Conditional Climatology to the Forecast Toolkit Interpret and apply the output Case studies

3. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 3 What is Conditional Climatology? A distribution of variables now and in the future based on one or more given conditions. Examples: Pattern Recognition Conceptual Models Local Rules of Thumb Forecaster Experience

4. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 4 Role of Conditional Climatology in Aviation Forecasting 1960’s Conditional Climatology Tables (WSCC) 1970’s to present Numerical models MOS 2000’s Integration of CC back into the aviation forecast process

5. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 5 Benefits of Conditional Climatology? Guidance on event duration, intensity and trends Limits over forecasting of rare events Increases forecaster confidence Better results than just using persistence forecasting or NWP/MOS guidance

6. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 6 Limitations of Conditional Climatology Not to be used alone! Does not discriminate between physical processes May not be useful in extreme or rare weather events Only as good as the forecaster in the loop

7. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 7 How Do You Forecast Ceiling Height and Visibility????

8. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 8 What Tools Do you Use? Current Observations Satellite MOS Soundings Model Data Local Studies Advection Convection Persistence

9. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 9 Using NWP Model Data to forecast clouds

10. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 10 Models Relative Humidity??? Model Clouds???

11. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 11 Model Soundings?

12. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 12 Meteograms

13. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 13 How good are NWP Models at predicting: Moisture? It’s Horizontal and Vertical Distribution? Cloud Ceilings?

14. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 14 Model Output Statistics! Good idea. Removes biases. Adds Climatology. Limited to NWS Locations

15. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 15 MAV MOS Is the “Weather” in Caribou the same as State College PA or New York City? Is the Weather in Atlanta the same as San Antonio? Regional Equations are used for Ceiling and Visibility Summer (Apr-Sept) Winter (Oct-Mar)

16. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 16

17. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 17 MAV MOS Model “Run time” plus 3 Hour Observation is Critical (03Z, 09Z, 15Z or 21Z) Use the Ceiling and Visibility Category Probabilities.

18. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 18 NGM MOS Look at NGM Synoptic Pattern Period of Record used for equation Development is Extensive 02Z and 14Z Observations are critical

19. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 19 We need more Rules of thumb? “in this situation, the cloud base “usually” remains IFR until late morning.” CLIMATOLOGY!!! “Conditional” Climatology

20. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 20 Case 1 18Z TAF John F. Kennedy International Airport May

21. 1630Z Visible. KJFK

22. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 22 17Z METAR METAR KJFK 311651Z 14009KT 10SM BKN007 BKN250 19/16 A3020 RMK AO2 SLP226 T01940161

23. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 23 Situation SE Flow Prevails Models provided little help in terms of moisture and clouds. When and How Low does the Ceiling and Visibility Go??

24. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 24 12Z NAM-eta (Fcst Hr = 05) Valid 17Z

25. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 25 15Z RUC (Fcst Hr = 02) Valid 17Z

26. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 26 12Z NAM (Fcst Hr = 14) Valid 02Z

27. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 27 15Z RUC (Fcst Hr = 11) Valid 02Z

28. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 28 GFS MOS

29. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 29 NGM MOS

30. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 30 Current TAF KJFK 311509Z 311512 14009KT P6SM BKN007 TEMPO 1617 SCT007 FM1700 14009KT P6SM SCT010 SCT080 SCT140 FM0200 VRB04KT 1SM BR SCT004 SCT040 FM0600 VRB03KT 3/4SM BR BKN004 TEMPO 0811 1/2SM FG VV002=

31. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 31 Conditional Climatology MODCV is available from the AFCCC. Data files exists for most military airports and man civilian airports world wide! Today will look at using the data for KJFK.

32. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 32 What Was Forecast? FTUS41 KOKX 311700 TAFJFK TAF KJFK 311728Z 311818 14009KT P6SM BKN007 TEMPO 1923 SCT007 FM0200 14006KT 3SM BR BKN005 FM0600 VRB03KT 1SM BR OVC004 TEMPO 0811 1/2SM FG VV002 FM1400 18005KT 5SM HZ BKN008 FM1700 21009KT P6SM SCT010 SCT050=

33. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 33 What TAF would you make? KJFK 311818 14010KT 9999 BKN007 BECMG 2223 14008KT 4800 BR OVC004 BECMG 0203 14005KT 0800 FG VV002

34. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 34 KJFK 311751Z 15007KT 10SM BKN007 19/16 A3020 RMK AO2 SLP225 T01890161 10194 20172 56004= KJFK 311851Z 15007KT 10SM VCFG BKN007 19/16 A3019 RMK AO2 SLP222 VIS S 2 1/2 T01890161= KJFK 311951Z 15009KT 8SM BKN007 19/16 A3017 RMK AO2 SLP217 T01890161= KJFK 312051Z 16011KT 8SM OVC007 18/16 A3016 RMK AO2 SLP213 T01830156 58013= KJFK 312151Z 15011KT 1/2SM BR OVC005 18/16 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 6 SLP203 T01780161= KJFK 312155Z 15011KT 1/8SM BR OVC003 18/16 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 6= KJFK 312214Z 15011KT 1/2SM BR OVC003 17/16 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 6 SFC VIS E-SE 2 1/2 $= KJFK 312251Z 15007KT 1/2SM R04R/3500VP6000FT BR OVC003 17/16 A3014 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1 1/2 SLP204 T01720161= KJFK 312351Z 15009KT 1/2SM R04R/2000V3500FT BR OVC003 17/16 A3014 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 3/4 SLP204 T01670161 10194 20167 56008= KJFK 010051Z 15006KT 1/2SM R04R/2200V3500FT BR OVC003 17/16 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 3/4 SLP203 T01670161= KJFK 010151Z 19009KT 1/4SM R04R/2000V2800FT FG VV002 17/16 A3014 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/2 SLP205 T01670161 $= KJFK 010232Z 18005KT 1/4SM R04R/1800V2200FT FG VV002 17/16 A3014 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/2 $= KJFK 010238Z 19006KT 1/8SM R04R/2000V2200FT FG VV002 17/16 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 $= KJFK 010251Z 18007KT 1/8SM R04R/2200V2600FT FG VV002 17/16 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/2 SLP203 T01670161 58001 $= KJFK 010324Z 17007KT 0SM R04R/1600V1800FT FG VV001 17/16 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 $= KJFK 010351Z 18007KT 0SM R04R/1400V1600FT FG VV001 17/17 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 SLP201 T01670167 $= KJFK 010451Z 17005KT 0SM R04R/1600V2000FT -DZ FG VV001 17/17 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/8 DZB35 SLP203 P0000 T01720167 401940167 $= KJFK 010551Z 14006KT 0SM R04R/1600FT FG VV001 17/17 A3012 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 DZE50 SLP199 P0000 60000 T01720167 10172 20167 58005 $= KJFK 010651Z 15005KT 0SM R04R/1200V1400FT FG VV001 17/17 A3010 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/8 SLP193 T01720167 $= KJFK 010751Z 18005KT 0SM R04R/1400FT FG VV001 17/17 A3008 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/8 SLP187 T01720167 $= KJFK 010851Z 18007KT 0SM R04R/2200V2600FT FG VV001 17/17 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/2 SLP182 T01720167 56017 $= KJFK 010911Z 17007KT 0SM R04R/1600V2000FT FG VV001 17/17 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 $= KJFK 010925Z 18007KT 0SM R04R/2000V3500FT FG VV001 17/17 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 $= KJFK 010951Z 20007KT 0SM R04R/2200V2600FT FG VV002 17/17 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/2 SLP182 T01720167 $= KJFK 011005Z 20006KT 0SM R04R/1800V2000FT FG VV002 17/17 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 $= KJFK 011014Z 21006KT 0SM R04R/1800V2000FT FG VV001 18/17 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 $= KJFK 011051Z 21004KT 0SM R04R/1400FT FG VV001 18/17 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 SLP183 T01780172 $= KJFK 011151Z 22006KT 0SM R04R/1000FT FG VV001 18/18 A3006 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/8 SLP180 T01830178 10183 20167 58002 $= KJFK 011251Z 20005KT 0SM R04R/1000V2000FT FG VV001 19/18 A3006 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 SLP179 T01890183= KJFK 011303Z 19006KT 0SM R04R/1400V2400FT FG VV001 19/18 A3006 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4= KJFK 011340Z 21007KT 0SM R04R/2000V5500FT BR OVC002 19/18 A3005 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 3/4= KJFK 011351Z 19007KT 0SM R04R/1600V4500FT BR OVC002 19/18 A3004 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1 1/4 SLP173 T01940183= KJFK 011451Z 18007KT 0SM R04R/2200VP6000FT BR BKN003 21/19 A3003 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1 SLP170 SFC VIS SE-SW 1/2 CIG 002V004 T02110189 58010= KJFK 011543Z 17006KT 3SM HZ BKN003 22/19 A3003 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 4 SFC VIS SW-W 1 1/2 BKN V SCT= KJFK 011551Z 19006KT 5SM HZ SCT003 22/18 A3002 RMK AO2 SLP166 SCT V BKN T02220183= KJFK 011651Z 17009KT 8SM FEW008 24/19 A3000 RMK AO2 SLP158 T02390189= KJFK 011751Z 18009KT 10SM FEW045 SCT250 24/19 A2998 RMK AO2 SLP151 CB DSNT N T02390189 10244 20183 58018= KJFK 011851Z 17010KT 10SM FEW045 SCT250 25/19 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP145 CB DSNT NE TCU DSNT N T02500194= KJFK 011951Z 18015KT 10SM SCT250 25/19 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP137 T02500189= KJFK 012051Z 18020G24KT 10SM FEW045 SCT250 24/19 A2990 RMK AO2 SLP124 TCU DSNT W T02390189 58027=

35. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 35 Times to use Conditional Climatology During “steady state” weather situations. Fog/Stratus events Radiation Fog Advection Fog Marine Stratus Prevailing Wind Determining Onset and Dissipation Times. Seasonal Refresher and New Forecasters orientation. New TAF sites, where 30-years of data exists

36. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 36 Summary Conditional Climatology improves the TAF process through increased forecaster confidence. Must correctly integrate Conditional Climatology with Observations, NWP, MOS and other techniques. Conditional Climatology can significantly improve TAF quality and service.

37. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 37 Thank You!

38. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 38 References BUFKIT: http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/tools/BUFKIT/http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/tools/BUFKIT/ MOS: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/products.shtmlhttp://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/products.shtml MODCV: https://notus2.afccc.af.mil/https://notus2.afccc.af.mil/