Presentation of final results Establishment of optimal control areas for acidification, eutrofication and ground level ozone Presentation of final results Michiel Roemer and Toon van Harmelen

Objective: to designate geographically the optimal control areas with regard to the protection of soils, lakes and vegetation from ground-level ozone, acidification and eutrophication. to establish how such control would impact on PM and ozone in relation to health Optimal control areas December 19, 2006

What is an optimal control area? 1) environmental approach based on environmental protection per unit weight of reduced emission 2) environmental-economic approach based on costs per unit ecosystem protection Optimal control areas December 19, 2006

How do we calculate optimal control areas? 1) the basis is the equivalency maps (SOx-acidification, NOx-acidification, NOx-eutrophication, NOx-AOT40f) produced by the LOTOS-EUROS model. This contains the elements of dispersion, distance to ecoystems, response to emissions, etc.. 2 the choice of a configuration of control areas follows from the following considerations; a) variability and robustness within optimal control area of the same order as within Member States b) optimal control areas relatively easy to align with Member States borders (=> avoid large number of small control areas). Optimal control areas December 19, 2006

Method (environmental analysis) determine equivalency maps of Europe, areas of equal exceedance change (acidification, eutrophication, AOT40f) per unit weight emission reduction SOx or NOx calculate environmental burden in 2010 (baseline + ships) calculate change in env. burden in response to 20% emission change per grid cell. detailed approach for SOx with blocks of 2x1 lola coarse approach for NOx with blocks of 6x5 lola Optimal control areas December 19, 2006

The LOTOS-EUROS model domain: 10W-60E; 35N-70N; 0-2 km resolution: 1x0.5 lola chemistry: CBM-IV meteorology: 1997 (Univ. Berlin) bound. c.: TM3 land-use: PELINDA database emissions: baseline 2010, ships 2000 (*1.3), natural emis. sulphur version SO2 and SO4 only, pre-determined OH fields Optimal control areas December 19, 2006

critical load data 50x50 km resolution, provided by RIVM-CCE data for all ecoystems forest data (AOT40f) from PELINDA land-use database Optimal control areas December 19, 2006

the sulphur deposition (eq the sulphur deposition (eq./ha/yr) in 2010 as a result of baseline emissions. Optimal control areas December 19, 2006

the nitrogen deposition (eq the nitrogen deposition (eq./ha/yr) in 2010 as a result of baseline emissions. Optimal control areas December 19, 2006

Average Accumulated Exceedances (eq Average Accumulated Exceedances (eq./ha/yr) for acidification for grid average deposition in 2010 (baseline). Optimal control areas December 19, 2006

Average Accumulated Exceedances (eq Average Accumulated Exceedances (eq./ha/yr) eutrophication for grid average deposition in 2010 (baseline). Optimal control areas December 19, 2006

AOT40f (ppb.h) for 2010 (baseline). Optimal control areas December 19, 2006

detailed approach for sulphur for sulphur we used a simplified version of the model, allowing a large number of calculations. 20% of the local SOx emissions were reduced in blocks of 2x1 lola. For each of these changes the model was rerun, and the change in AAE determined. The changes were expressed on a weight unit of the emission change. Optimal control areas December 19, 2006

sulphur the amount of SOx emission reduced with a 20% reduction per cell. Optimal control areas December 19, 2006

the effect (%) per grid cell of changing the integrated AAE the effect (%) per grid cell of changing the integrated AAE. All grid cells together are 100% Optimal control areas December 19, 2006

the effect per tonne SOx reduction on AAE for acidification expressed with respect to the average effect. classes factor 3 apart Optimal control areas December 19, 2006

A sensitivity experiment effect per tonne SOx reduction on AAE-acidification expressed with respect to the average effect. In this case all fluxes are multiplied with 1.3. Optimal control areas December 19, 2006

How to make optimal control areas? 1) based on equivalency maps, and the following considerations: a) optimal control areas are comparable to Member States in terms of variation (effect-tonne) and robustness (shifting emissions) b) it should be possible to fit the borders of optimal control areas with Member State borders (=> avoid many small areas). 2) we have used the SO2 maps because of higher degree of detail 3) we checked consequences for health (O3 and PM10) Optimal control areas December 19, 2006

weighed average, standard deviation and ratio for the effect-tonne parameter (SO2 – acidification). Average and standard deviation are expressed with respect to the European mean. * average stdev ratio AL 0.0347 0.0290 0.84 IT 0.0904 0.0897 0.99 AT 0.4683 0.4260 0.91 LI 0.7191 0.9345 1.30 BA 0.1077 0.0886 0.82 LU 0.9293 0.0000 0.00 BE 3.7355 2.1160 0.57 LV 0.5070 0.3977 0.78 BG 0.0359 0.0455 1.26 MD 0.0978 0.1121 1.15 BY 1.7932 3.0938 1.73 MK 0.0467 0.0434 0.93 CH 0.6601 0.6743 1.02 MN 0.0791 0.0788 1.00 CZ 0.7469 0.7258 0.97 NL 3.5633 3.3531 0.94 DK 4.8471 4.0255 0.83 NO 6.5645 20.2284 3.08 DE 3.0942 4.8428 1.57 PL 1.3796 2.4766 1.80 EE 0.7495 0.7474 PT 0.0477 0.0173 0.36 ES 0.1326 0.2437 1.84 RO 0.0939 0.1843 1.96 FI 0.8252 1.6994 2.06 RU 0.4024 0.9330 2.32 FR 1.7685 3.8024 2.15 SB 0.0858 0.0835 GB 3.3942 5.7240 1.69 SE 5.2264 12.0434 2.30 GR 0.0137 0.0146 1.06 SK 0.5124 0.3171 0.62 HR 0.1218 0.1275 1.05 SL 0.1257 0.0748 0.59 HU 0.2729 0.2949 1.08 TU 0.0085 0.0142 1.68 IE 0.4459 0.5121 UA 0.3266 0.5269 1.61 Optimal control areas December 19, 2006 * Serbia (SB) and Montenegro (MN) are taken separately

Robustness Does it matter if a reduction of 20% of SO2 emissions in an area is applied: a) proportional over all grid cells in the area, b) in order of the most effective cells first, c) in order of the least effective cells first? This procedure is repeated for a number of optimal control area configurations, and for the current configuration of Member States. We have tested several configurations, 2 of them are shown (bub7 and bub3) Optimal control areas December 19, 2006

effect (dAAE) of 3 approaches for 2 configurations. flat least most Ratio least/flat Ratio most/flat Bub7.1 870 680 1415 Bub7.2 2850 1900 4295 Bub7.3 1280 825 Bub7.4 330 185 490 Bub7.5 135 90 210 Bub7.6 70 45 110 Bub7.7 10 5 total 5545 3730 8430 0.67 1.52 Bub3.1 4820 1765 10740 Bub3.2 635 170 1390 Bub3.3 40 165 1975 12295 0.35 2.22 Optimal control areas December 19, 2006

dAAE even least most Ratio least/even Ratio most/even AL 4.5 3 6 0.67 1.33 AT 23 7 47.5 0.30 2.07 BA 24.5 21 33 0.86 1.35 BE 505 323 727.5 0.64 1.44 BG 19 14 28 0.74 1.47 CH 9 13 0.50 CS 55 82 0.60 1.49 CZ 76.5 54 94.5 0.71 1.24 DE 1240 270 3159.5 0.22 2.55 DK 344.5 140.5 648.5 0.41 1.88 EE 28.5 11.5 62.5 0.40 2.19 ES 37.5 8.5 89.5 0.23 2.39 FI 20.5 5 50 0.24 2.44 FR 497.5 61 1407.5 0.12 2.83 GB 706 293.5 1267 0.42 1.79 GR 2.5 1 4 1.60 HR 12.5 7.5 18 HU 30 99 0.56 1.83 IE 10 0.5 30.5 0.05 3.05 Optimal control areas December 19, 2006

dAAE even least most Ratio least/even Ratio most/even IT 26 8.5 56.5 0.33 2.17 LT 17.5 10 31 0.57 1.77 LV 6.5 4.5 9 0.69 1.38 MD 3 5.5 0.67 1.22 MK 8 9.5 1.19 MN 5 10.5 0.59 1.24 NL 507.5 343 778 0.68 1.53 NO 121.5 285 0.07 2.35 PL 770.5 421 1449.5 0.55 1.88 PT 4 2 7.5 0.50 RO 48.5 27 90.5 0.56 1.87 SE 456 178 716.5 0.39 1.57 SK 67 32.5 0.49 1.81 SL 6 0.75 1.08  All MS 5722 2342 11444 0.41 2.00 Europe 5060 85 19630 0.02 3.88   sea 491 12 1944 3.96 Optimal control areas December 19, 2006

national boundaries dAAE flat least most Ratio least/flat Ratio most/flat Bub3.1 4820 1765 10740 0.37 2.23 Bub3.2 635 170 1390 Bub3.3 90 40 165 Total Bub3 5545 1975 12295 0.35 2.22 Bub2.1+ 4274 1019 10546 0.24 2.47 Bub2.2+ 1279 50 5300 Total Bub2+ 5553 1069 15846 0.19 2.85 Optimal control areas December 19, 2006

geographical distribution sulphur AAE-acidification Optimal control areas December 19, 2006

geographical distribution (2) the effect per tonne SOx reduction on AAE for acidification expressed with respect to the average effect. classes factor 5 apart Optimal control areas December 19, 2006

health a few sensitivity experiments were carried out to examine effects on health related parameters (AOT60, SOMO35, PM10) when emissions (SO2, NOx) are reduced in different ways: a) proportional over all grid cells in the area, b) in order of the most effective cells first, c) in order of the least effective cells first. The reductions apply on the trading zone consisting of FR, GB, DE, BE, LU, NL, DK, SE, NO. Optimal control areas December 19, 2006

The difference in AOT60 (ppb The difference in AOT60 (ppb.h) between a 20% flat reduction of SO2 and NOx in trading zone 1 and the baseline 2010. Optimal control areas December 19, 2006

The difference in AOT60 (ppb The difference in AOT60 (ppb.h) between an effective approach and the flat approach in trading zone 1. Optimal control areas December 19, 2006

The difference in AOT60 (ppb The difference in AOT60 (ppb.h) between an ineffective approach and the flat approach in trading zone 1. Optimal control areas December 19, 2006

The difference in PM10 (µg The difference in PM10 (µg.m-3) between a 20% flat reduction of SO2 and NOx in trading zone 1 and the baseline 2010 Optimal control areas December 19, 2006

The difference in PM10 (µg The difference in PM10 (µg.m-3) between an effective approach and the flat approach in trading zone 1 Optimal control areas December 19, 2006

The difference in PM10 (µg The difference in PM10 (µg.m-3) between an ineffective approach and the flat approach in trading zone 1 Optimal control areas December 19, 2006

Conclusions health health related parameters are affected by shifting the emission (reductions). The parameter that was influenced most was PM10 through changes in nitrate, sulphate and (indirectly) ammonia. Optimal control areas December 19, 2006

nitrogen For nitrogen the same approach as for sulphur was used, except that the emission changes were applied on larger blocks. This is due to the fact that all runs were to be done with the full chemical model. The equivalency maps are therefore coarser. Optimal control areas December 19, 2006

nitrogen AAE-acidification the effect per tonne NOx reduction on AAE for acidification expressed with respect to the average effect. Optimal control areas December 19, 2006

nitrogen AAE eutrophication Optimal control areas December 19, 2006

nitrogen AOT40f Optimal control areas December 19, 2006

nitrogen combined (1) optimal control areas for NOx emission reduction when acidification, eutrophication and ozone are combined in equal weights Optimal control areas December 19, 2006

nitrogen combined (2) Optimal control areas for NOx emission reduction combining the three themes. A grid cell is seen as effective (orange>1) when it is effective in at least one theme. Optimal control areas December 19, 2006

Conclusions on environmental analysis Optimal control areas (in an environmental sense) are established on the basis of equivalent effects (per tonne reduction) on the European ecosystems. Three classes are distinguished: 1) high effects, 2) intermediate effects, and 3) low effects. For SOx and NOx in relation to acidification at least two optimal control areas emerge, depending on scaling a third area could emerge. For NOx in relation to eutrophication and protection of forest (AOT40f), two optimal control areas appear, but with different contours. It seems that by combining the three themes one optimal control area for NOx is enough Optimal control areas December 19, 2006

Recommendations to extend this study with other components: VOC, NH3, PM2.5 to repeat the NOx calculations on a finer scale use the indicative results on the configuration of different zones to examine the costs and environmental implications as well as their distribution over the various countries, of allowing flexibility starting from a realistic baseline for the emissions of all relevant pollutants; Optimal control areas December 19, 2006