Calculation of evaporative emissions with COPERT Giorgos Mellios Brussels, 04 October 2012

Contents Summary of modifications to the COPERT model Results / input to cost-benefit analysis

Modifications to the COPERT model

Parking time distribution Average duration of parking events ≥ 120 hours: 218 h

Trip distance distribution Introduce trip distribution to better estimate canister status before parking Average distance of trips ≥ 20 km: 39 km

Purging strategy Purge volume as function of distance travelled: 9.66 l/km for small cars 16.68 l/km for medium and large cars Purging increased (by 33/19) for all scenarios: 16.77 l/km for small cars 28.97 l/km for medium and large cars

Permeation emissions Non ethanol containing fuels: 0.6 g/day for fluorinated tanks (34% of cars) 0.2 g/day for multi-layer tanks (66% of cars) Ethanol containing fuels (E5 – E10): 0.3 g/day additional emissions from the fuel and vapour control system Other sources (leakage etc.): 0.2 g/day (depending on fuel volatility and temperature)

Durability Based on Swedish in-use data Activated carbon efficiency decrease (for ethanol-containing fuel): Small cars: 1% decrease every 8 000 km  ~20% decrease over vehicle lifetime Medium and large cars: 1% decrease every 32 000 km  ~5% decrease over vehicle lifetime Improved durability for scenario 3: 1% decrease every 32 000 km for all cars  ~5% decrease over vehicle lifetime

Emissions calculations with modified model

Modelling of scenarios More aggressive purging Scenario 2 More aggressive purging Bigger canister (size x 2) Scenario 3 Improved durability (lower carbon degradation) Multi-layer tanks for all cars

Outline of calculations performed COPERT model adjusted to simulate different scenarios Simulation runs with modified COPERT Calculation of diurnal evap emissions for baseline and 3 Euro 6 scenarios All EU-27 MS calculated All years from 2015 to 2030 and 2017 to 2032 (depending on assumed implementation year) Euro 6 vehicle fleet population and activity data from EC4MACS Estimation of environmental benefits (VOC abated) for each scenario compared to baseline

Calculated diurnal emissions, EU (2015-2030) Total diurnal emissions assuming all cars are equipped with multi-layer tanks Total diurnal emissions assuming 35% of small and medium cars are equipped with fluorinated tanks (except scenario 3)

Calculated diurnal emissions, EU (2017-2032) Total diurnal emissions assuming all cars are equipped with multi-layer tanks Total diurnal emissions assuming 35% of small and medium cars are equipped with fluorinated tanks (except scenario 3)

Diurnal emission factors (2015-2030) Average diurnal emission factors assuming all cars are equipped with multi-layer tanks Average diurnal emission factors assuming 35% of small and medium cars are equipped with fluorinated tanks (except scenario 3)

Observations Significant emissions reduction potential Activated carbon quantity (canister size) and quality (related to durability) seem to have the greatest effect, followed by fuel tank structure and purging strategy Further emissions reductions may be achieved with the introduction of OBD