Climate Change Mitigation: Research Needs Ogunlade Davidson and Bert Metz Co-chairs, IPCC Working Group III SBSTA/UNFCCC 20 Bonn, Germany 21 June 2004 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) THE MITIGATION CHALLENGE: NEED FOR APPLYING KNOWN RESEARCH AND DEVELOP NEW ONES Human activity (combustion of fossil fuels and to some extent the reduction of terrestrial forests and other land-use changes) has significantly altered the global climate system due to increasing concentration of GHG in the atmosphere Carbon dioxide is by far the dominant contributor of the greenhouse gases inducing an enhanced GHG effect IPCC-TAR show that by the year 2100, up to 1500 GtC eq. of cumulative emissions need to be avoided to achieve stabilisation of atmospheric GHG, however it could be reduced by a factor of 5 if development pathways of nations and regions become more sustainable (B1-SRES) Changing the way we produce and use energy is a major contributor though other sectoral changes are required-using existing knowledge and development of new knowledge INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

IPCC WG III RESEARCH NEEDS: TAR 1. Exploration of the regional, country and sector specific potentials of technological, economic and social innovation options: Short, medium and long-term potentials and costs; Social innovation leading to decreased GHG emissions; Impact of mitigation measures on terrestrial Carbon flows. INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

IPCC WG III RESEARCH NEEDS: TAR 2. Economic, social, and institutional issues related to climate change mitigation in all countries. Priority areas include: Regional analysis of specific mitigation options, barriers, and policies; Implications of mitigation options on equity; Improved data sources for climate change mitigation; Capacity building in integrated assessment.

IPCC WORKING GROUP III RESEARCH NEEDS: TAR 3. Methodologies for analysis of the potential of mitigation options and their cost, with special attention to comparability of results. Examples include: Barriers to greenhouse gas reduction; Develop more consistent, reproducible, and accessible models; Modelling technology learning; ancillary benefits; Uncertainty and risk in climate policy making. INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

IPCC WORKING GROUP III RESEARCH NEEDS 4. Evaluating climate mitigation options in the context of development, sustainability, and equity. Examples include: Balancing mitigation and adaptation in the context of development; Alternative development paths; Synergy between explicit climate policies and sustainable development policies; Integration of inter- and intra-generational equity in climate change mitigation studies; Analysis of options under different stabilization regimes. INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

IPCC WORKING GROUP III RESEARCH NEEDS: TAR 5. Development of engineering-economic, end-use, and sectoral studies of GHG emissions mitigation potentials for specific regions and/or countries of the world. Examples include: Mitigation technologies and measures for the short term (2010, 2020); Adoption of GHG emissions mitigation in connection with ancillary benefits and development. INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

IPCC WORKING GROUP III RESEARCH NEEDS Additional issues emerging for AR4 though Expert meetings 2003-2004 More integration of adaptation and mitigation in developing climate change strategy; Inclusion of LULUCF, non-CO2 GHG, “new” aerosols (black carbon, nitrate aerosols, ammonia); Regional emission scenarios; Probabilistic scenario approaches, including risks of exceeding thresholds for different mitigation /stabilisation pathways INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

IPCC WORKING GROUP III RESEARCH NEEDS Additional issues emerging from AR4 preparatory Expert meetings 2003-2004 Relation climate mitigation , air quality improvement and health; Energy requirements to undertake effective adapatation; Interdependencies between vulnerability & adaptation to climate change mitigation in different sectors.

International co-operation in mitigation (& adaptation) research? Climate change mitigation research is fragmented and not integrated; Integrated assessment growing but not yet matured Research funds are dwindling especially on climate change mitigation; Little attention is given to “Gaps in knowledge” from IPCC assessments More is needed from “the Scientific & Technological Community”? A possible international R&D programme on mitigation of climate change