Extreme weather events; Historical Data Analysis and Economic Impacts By: Niloufar Nouri PhD student CCNY-Department of Civil Engineering NOAA CREST

What is extreme weather? Includes unusual, unpredictable, sever or unseasonal weather; sometimes, extreme events are based on a location’s recorded weather history and defined as lying in the most unusual 10%. Have sufficient intensity to cause loss of life, injuries, significant property damage, and/or disruption to commerce

Examples of extreme weather Tornado: clouds, strong wind, rain, hail Hurricane or cyclone: strong wind, heavy rain Blizzard: heavy snow, ice, cold temperatures Flooding: heavy rainfall Dust storm: strong winds, arid conditions Ice storm: freezing rain Drought Wildfire

Losses due to extreme events in US Billion dollar weather and climate disasters are on the rise in the US Since 1980, the U.S. has sustained 203 weather and climate disasters each produced losses in excess of $5 million and cumulative costs which exceed $1.1 trillion dollar. The Midwest drought of 1988–1989 ($39 billion) Hurricane Andrew in South Florida in 1992 ($30 billion) Midwest flood of 1993 ($19 billion) In 2016 : There were 15 weather and climate events with losses exceeding $1 billion each across the United States. These events included drought, wildfire, 4 inland flood events, 8 severe storm events, and a tropical cyclone event. Cumulatively, these events led to 138 fatalities and caused $46.0 billion in total, direct costs.

Motivation of research

Objectives of research Investigation of the time and spatial trends of historical events Finding vulnerable sections and estimating the probability of having specific weather extremes in US regions. Estimation of losses (both economic and human life)

Motivation Losses from extreme events plays an important role in estimating the cost of Greenhouse gases (e.g. CO2, Methane, chlorofluorocarbons CFCs) emissions. Greenhouse gases (can be produced by human activities like burning fossil fuels) are a group of compounds that are able to trap heat and allow sunlight to pass through the atmosphere; Increases in the amount of GHG in the atmosphere enhances global warming and consequently climate change) The impacts differ across regions due to natural and social factors. Explaining vulnerability to extremes will be useful for policy making, governmental agencies like NWS , Private companies ( e.g. construction companies) , Emergency managers, Insurance companies , Healthcare, Agriculture industry, laws, media, etc….

What we will learn: Studying about different types of severe weather and their causes and effects. Introductory data analysis using NOAA storm event data base. Quantifying the impact of weather extremes by visualizing historical records of extreme weathers. (e.g. producing geographic maps of events frequency and the losses) Analyzing the variables which affect the losses of weather extremes

Events in our Data base :

Winter Weather Condition Extreme Cold/Wind Chill Floods Flash Flood Coastal Flood Flood Drought Convective Storms Thunderstorm Wind Lightning Tornado Funnel Cloud Hail Heavy Rain Winter Related Storms Blizzard Winter Storm Ice Storm Heavy Snow Winter Weather Condition Non-Convective Wind High Wind Strong Wind Temperature Extreme Freeze/Frost Cold/Wind Chill Extreme Cold/Wind Chill

Data visualization

Thank you 