The end of Croatian exceptionalism: anti-establishment backlash and the Human Shield party in Croatia Dr. Višeslav Raos, Assistant Professor, Faculty of Political Science, University of Zagreb, viseslav.raos@fpzg.hr PANEL: The CEE Political Parties in a Changing Political Environment 22nd Annual Conference of the Central European Political Science Association: Integration vs Disintegration? CEECs Towards European Union and its Challenges 14 – 15 September 2017, University of Wrocław

Presentation outline Introduction Patterns of Party Competition in Croatia Party System Change in Croatia, 2015-2017 Youth, Populism, and Euroscepticism: The Human Shield Party Croatia in Comparison to other CEE Party Systems Conclusion

introduction Croatia was until recently one of the few CEE countries with almost no Eurosceptic and/or anti-systemic parties in parliament Rather stable party system started to crumble from 2015 The rise of populism and Euroscepticism Is Croatia becoming more similar to other CEE states that joined the EU earlier?

Patterns of party competition in croatia Moderate pluralism since 2000 EU membership as a broad consensus Alternation of center-left and center-right pro-EU coalition governments Low volatility, low turnout, strong party membership Stable governments Cultural cleavages more important than economic cleavages

Party System Change in Croatia, 2015-2017 Inconclusive electoral result in 2015 – hung parliament between the center-left (led by SDP) and center-right (led by HDZ) blocks The emergence of a protest, anti-corruption, pro-reform party Bridge of Independent Lists (Most) Unstable government of non-partisan prime minister Tihomir Orešković Snap election in 2016 Unstable second coalition of HDZ and Most New government coalition of HDZ and HNS Crisis of the center-left

Youth, Populism, and Euroscepticism: The Human Shield Party Facebook protests in 2011 Activism against evictions due to foreclosures since 2014 Živi zid (Human Shield) as a youth, protest, anti- establishment party

Youth, Populism, and Euroscepticism: The Human Shield Party Voter Age of Four Biggest Parties in Croatia Party Average Mode Median Human Shield (Živi zid) 37 26 33 Bridge of Independent Lists (Most) 41 42 39 Social Democratic Party of Croatia (SDP) 52 66 58 Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) 53 68 55 Source: FPZG Election Poll, 2017

Youth, Populism, and Euroscepticism: The Human Shield Party Presidential Election 2014: 3rd place (16.4%) Parliamentary Election 2015: 4th place (4.24%, 1 seat) Parliamentary Election 2016: 4th place (6.23%, 3 seats)

Youth, Populism, and Euroscepticism: The Human Shield Party Main Policy Features Exit from the EU Debt relief Exit from NATO Ideological overlapping with conspiracy theorists (Zeitgeist movies, David Icke, etc.) Anti-American Critique Chemtrails Critique of Israel Critique of mandatory vaccinations Abolition of the Constitutional Court Scare of global surveillance Abolition of the autonomy of the Central Bank – free printing of money Talk of Freemason conspiracy Legalization of cannabis

Croatia in Comparison to other CEE Party Systems Still relatively stable in comparison to other CEE countries Introduction of new, start-up parties that challenge the system across the region Euroscepticism is not only connected to the populist right, like in other CEE countries No strong far left party in Croatia, as opposed to the Czech system, yet strong social democracy, as opposed to Poland and Hungary Center-left parties are often economically more liberal than center-right parties

conclusion The post-conflict experience of Croatia still makes its party system somewhat different from other CEE states EU membership is still perceived as a return to Europe Euroscepticism as an anti-establishment position, critique of the party cartell Creeping voter alienation Generation gap