Helping Parks Understand Future Air Quality

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Presentation transcript:

Helping Parks Understand Future Air Quality Mike Barna, NPS-ARD, Fort Collins, CO Provide leadership, expertise, and scientific support such that the natural resources of the National Park System are unimpaired for future generations.

Issues of Interest Ecosystem Health W126 ozone Nitrogen deposition Mercury and air toxics Effects of future climate change Visitor Experience Haze Unhealthy ozone levels

Addressing Uncertainty in Future Air Quality Simulations Do air quality models give similar dynamic response to perturbation of inputs? E.g. monte carlo evaluation of emissions, temperature, water vapor, cloud cover, boundary conditions Wild et al., ACP, 2012

Addressing Uncertainty in Future Air Quality Simulations Downscaling of climate models (dynamic, statistical) More difficult Ecosystem change and resulting plant communities -> multi-decadal runs Synoptic weather patterns Precipitation